Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/41tyn6M. David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins Ash Bennington to share his views on the current state of the economy, a growing disconnect between supply and demand, and what it means for the potential of a recession. David also discusses the bubble he sees forming in the stock market, and where he's spotting investment opportunities. Recorded on Thursday, June 20th. This episode is brought to you by TOKEN2049 Singapore. Join over 20,000 attendees for the world’s largest crypto event: TOKEN2049 Singapore on 18 to 19 September. 🔥 Visit www.realvision.com/token2049 for 15% off tickets, only with the code 'REALVISION’. Timestamps: 00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 01:01 - Introduction of David Rosenberg 01:37 - David's perspective on the current economy 02:18 - Comparison to the 2007 economic outlook 03:33 - Recession pressures and the business cycle 04:11 - Impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy 05:25 - Credit card debt and delinquency rates 06:41 - Changes in consumer behavior and credit card balances 07:53 - The role of excess savings and stimulus checks 08:27 - San Francisco Fed report on excess savings 09:02 - Consumer revolt against high prices 10:06 - Discrepancy between current economic conditions and the Fed's statements 11:23 - Historical comparisons to 2008 and recession signals 12:34 - Overstated non-farm payrolls and data revisions 13:37 - Signs of a potential recession in various economic sectors 14:13 - GDP growth and economic activity slowing down 15:17 - Lack of catalysts for re-acceleration in growth 16:26 - Importance of supply and demand in forecasting inflation 18:11 - Expectations for disinflation and Fed rate cuts 19:20 - Discussion on current trend growth and productivity gains 21:04 - Labor force participation and its impact on the economy 22:15 - Disconnect between productivity gains and aggregate demand 23:26 - Impact of housing and consumer behavior on the economy 24:34 - Global economic conditions and their effect on US exports 25:40 - Outlook on inflation and interest rates without a recession 26:16 - Increasing unemployment rate and its impact on wages 27:23 - Supply curve dynamics leading to disinflation 28:43 - Capacity growth in the industrial sector 29:18 - Expectations for inflation to reach the Fed's target 30:26 - Implications for asset prices and the stock market 31:39 - Concentration risk and the impact of high-performing tech stocks 33:33 - Concerns about excessive valuations and investor behavior 35:08 - Importance of thematic investing and capital preservation 36:50 - Sectors with growth potential: Aerospace, defense, utilities, and healthcare 38:57 - Trading down and frugality trends among consumers 40:14 - Staples and essential sectors as investment opportunities 41:37 - Utilities as a growth area due to climate change and infrastructure needs 43:17 - The role of gold and gold mining stocks in a disinflationary environment 44:56 - Impact of passive indexation on market distortions 46:41 - Risks of bubble bursts and historical parallels 48:02 - Potential market corrections and investor psychology 50:13 - Advice on profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing 51:57 - Importance of capital preservation and conservative investing 52:36 - Final thoughts on the current market cycle 53:47 - Importance of historical context in investing decisions 54:33 - Sentiment and psychology driving market behavior 55:52 - Recommendations for protective strategies in investing Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 14, 2020

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 14, 2020

Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Managing Editor Ed Harrison to discuss the day’s events. In this episode, the pair unpack new GDP growth forecasts, the latest economic warning from the IMF, and the first round of Q1 2020 bank earnings. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Huhti 202029min

Adventures in Finances - Daily Briefing - April 13, 2020

Adventures in Finances - Daily Briefing - April 13, 2020

Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Managing Editor Ed Harrison to discuss the events of recent days as the coronavirus crisis grinds forward. Harrison and Bennington focus on the role of banks in financial crises as a transmission mechanism to the broader economy. The pair also consider risks to the high yield market and the role that exchange traded products play in providing liquidity in the global debt markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

13 Huhti 202035min

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 10, 2020

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 10, 2020

Real Vision CEO & co-founder Raoul Pal joins Ash Bennington for a big picture look at the events of the last few weeks in the wake of coronavirus with a focus on the global economy. Pal and Bennington discuss the broad changes brought on by the virus, including its impact on US equity markets, the bond market, long-term and durable realignments in the global economy and supply chains, and the rising tide of political risk and fragility across the globe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Huhti 202036min

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 9, 2020

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 9, 2020

Real Vision's Roger Hirst and Ed Harrison talk about the Fed’s intervention into high yield ETFs and whether that support would spill over into equity markets to support shares on a sustained basis. In that context, they analyze Mike Green’s theory that continued passive investment flows would help equities back to new all-time highs, and they examine how oil markets are a barometer of market sentiment as well as demand in the real economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

9 Huhti 202026min

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 8, 2020

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 8, 2020

Real Vision’s Ash Bennington hosts Roger Hirst to discuss the rally in US equities against the backdrop of coronavirus. Hirst and Bennington discuss the rally from both a technical and fundamental perspective, weaving in the narrative of the breakdown in the real economy. The pair also discuss the monetary and fiscal response to the crisis, challenges in the real estate business, and the ultimate path forward to reopening the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Huhti 202032min

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 7 2020

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 7 2020

With markets and headlines moving faster than ever, we are now bringing all users a new ultra-timely show to help you keep up the dynamic news cycle. Real Vision's Ash Bennington and Ed Harrison unpack the seemingly widening gulf between macroeconomic events and price action in markets. In this episode, they discuss the impact of coronavirus on the global labor market, loan forbearance, the potential for dislocations in the credit markets, and the most recent medical developments on the ground. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Huhti 202032min

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 6 2020

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 6 2020

With markets and headlines moving faster than ever, we are now bringing all users a new ultra-timely show to help you keep up the dynamic news cycle. Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Managing Editor Ed Harrison to discuss the apparent disconnect between today’s market euphoria and the severe risks and uncertainty now facing the world economy. The pair discuss spiking unemployment, political risk, ballooning debt, and the corporate earnings outlook.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Huhti 202028min

Dr. Gio Valiante — Sustainable Excellence in Investing and Life

Dr. Gio Valiante — Sustainable Excellence in Investing and Life

Dr. Gio Valiante, founder of Fearless Golf and head performance coach at Point72 Asset Management, coaches individuals at the highest levels of sports and finance. Dr. Valiante provides tips and stories focused on improving performance and sustaining excellence over long periods of time. Please note that this podcast is comprised of shorter clips that previously appeared on Real Vision, compiled here for ease of listening — introduction by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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