Fed Minutes More Show Than Substance – Ep. 285
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast18 Sep 2017

Fed Minutes More Show Than Substance – Ep. 285

Market Anticipates Quantitative Tightening
The market continues to rise; people are excited about the Fed meeting that start tomorrow and concludes on Wednesday. Nobody expects a rate hike and there's not going to be a rate hike, but what everybody is looking forward to is the Fed outlining its strategy for quantitative tightening.
Shrinking the Balance Sheet
The Fed hasn't actually used those words yet; I use that term because what they are going to do is they are going to shrink their balance sheet. Right now, it's pretty much as large as it's ever been ever since it has done QE: just over $4.5 trillion. The idea is that the Fed is going to lay out a timetable or a roadmap for shrinking this balance sheet.
Upward Pressure on Interest Rates
I don't know why the markets are so excited about the prospect of a plan to shrink the Fed's balance sheet; if the Fed actually shrunk the balance sheet the markets would not like it. This would put dramatic upward pressure on interest rates, which is not good for stocks.
GDP Estimates Down
Also, GDP forecasts are coming down, we had big reductions late last week. Much of the reductions came from bad economic data we received before the hurricanes. Now, in the aftermath of hurricanes, that bad economic data is going to get even worse. They are already tallying up the damage from Irma and Harvey and it is enormous.
Real Estate Under Water
Speaking about real estate, there are many people who did not have flood insurance. The question is: What are they going to do with their houses? Are they going to borrow more money with low interest rate government loans and be deeper under water? Or are they going to walk away from their homes and just give these underwater housed back to the bank? Also, if Maria hits Puerto Rico and does a lot of damage, the U.S. government will have to pay for some of that.
Government Spending Increase
With all this bad news about the economy, why is the Fed going to try to make it worse by shrinking its balance sheet? The budget deficit is already going to explode; all the hurricane relief money needs to be borrowed. Trump is promising to roll out the Republican tax cut plan by the end of the month and it may be a joint efforts with the Democrats. They've already said it will increase the deficit. If the deal is with the Democrats, it will no only mean less tax revenue, it will also mean big increases in government spending.
Money for Hurricane Damage - Money for Everybody!
So not only will we be paying for hurricane damage, there will be new infrastructure spending, new money for the military - who knows if we get money for the wall? Maybe it's going to be money for everybody, the Democrats and Republicans coming together to fill everybody's Christmas stocking with goodies for the voters. How is the Federal Reserve going to add to the pressure?
Who Will Buy Government Bonds?
Remember: if the Treasury is going to borrow more money, that's more bonds being offered for sale. If the Federal Reserve is not only not a buyer for those bonds (which it normally would do), if it is shrinking its balance sheets it cannot buy any of them. So now the Federal government, the Treasury, is going to have to go into the private market to sell well over a trillion dollars worth of treasuries to finance next year's budget deficit without any help from the Fed.
Repay Fed Plus Finance New Borrowing
But not only is the Fed not going to help, the Treasury will be in competition with the Fed. They will both be trying to unload treasuries at the same time. In other words, if the Federal Reserve refuses to roll over the maturing bonds, or refuses to reinvest the interest payments they earn, then the Treasury will have to sell those bonds, too. They have to sell enough bonds to repay the Fed in addition to finance all the new borrowing.

Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Episoder(1082)

As The New Year Begins, Will The Recovery End? – Ep. 40

As The New Year Begins, Will The Recovery End? – Ep. 40

* Falling unemployment trends seem to be over * PMI "unexpectedly" drops to 53.9% * Construction spending "unexpectedly" fell .3% * December ISM fell to 55.5 * Draghi's comments at ECB sparked U.S. Dollar rally despite weak data * Eurozone QE not likely * 2014 was a flat year for gold, despite bad press * Dollar price based on higher interest rate expectations * Price of gold has tripled since 2005 * Gold mining costs rise with inflation * The real bubble is the confidence in central bankers Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Jan 201535min

Christmas Snow Job on Wall Street – Ep. 39

Christmas Snow Job on Wall Street – Ep. 39

Christmas Snow job on Wall Street * Dow ended Christmas Eve Day above 18,000 for second day * Catalyst was bigger than expected revision to Q3 GDP to 5% * Big disconnect between economic performance and expectations * Consumer spending up mostly on healthcare * Inventory increases in expectation of future sales * Data for Q4 is lower * Home sales continue to drop Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Des 201426min

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball – Ep. 38

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball – Ep. 38

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball * Negative deposit rates in Switzerland send U.S. stocks up 420 points. * Two-day Wall Street rally over 700 points on nothing but Central Bank inflation * Swiss move triggers QE speculation and higher gold prices * Janet Yellen merely suggested the economy is strong enough to raise rates in the future * Meanwhile, economy is slowest since last February Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Des 201422min

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her – Ep. 37

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her – Ep. 37

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her - Ep. 37 * FOMC wrapped up meeting with Yellen press conference * Most people expected "considerable time" to be dropped * Bloomberg believes "considerable" dropped in favor of "patience" * The Fed didn't change anything * The Fed didn't actually say anything * Markets up on Yellen's optimistic non-news * Why wait to raise interest rates? * The longer the Fed waits to raise rates, the more painful it will be for the economy * What is the Fed's strategy if economy slows down? Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

18 Des 201425min

You Know the Bubble’s About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice – Ep. 36

You Know the Bubble’s About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice – Ep. 36

You Know the Bubble's About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice Ep. 36 * Oil and Russia viewed to be at the epicenter of this week's market chaos * Why is the oil price dropping? The market anticipates a drop in demand due to global recession * Winding down of QE triggering market instability * Economic data still pointing to weakness * Russia raised interest rates to 17% * Ruble crisis is a "dress rehearsal" for the dollar crisis * Our currency crisis will be worse because of our debt * Euro and Yen rallying * This morning gold was up, down, ended up * Volatility indicates changing trends * A recession in the U.S. means QE4 Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Des 201424min

Yellen’s Recovery is as real as George ‘s Beach House Ep. 35

Yellen’s Recovery is as real as George ‘s Beach House Ep. 35

Yellen's Recovery is as real as George Costanza's Hamptons Beach House Ep. 35 * Volatile Friday followed by Monday rally trend * The stock market has rallied very high very fast with little technical support. * The gold market had its best week relative to equities. * Only a dozen markets have beaten gold this year. * Rally started with Michigan Consumer Sentiment assisted by Dodd/Frank revisions. * The dollar was mixed at Friday close. * The oil market is indicative of the Fed's movements. * The Fed's history predicts continued to support for bubbles with additional QE, despite reports to the contrary. * QE4 will be bigger than previous QE's and will precipitate higher oil prices. * The pretense that QE is over has fueled the market, but QE4 will trigger the bursting of multiple bubbles. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Des 201430min

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34 * If oil goes down to $35/barrel we will not be able to produce oil for export at that price. * It is no accident that oil prices are dropping as the Fed is ending QE. * What are the implications for the U.S. Economy if the Oil Bubble bursts? * Good jobs in the industry sector will go away. * Oil sector business loans will default * Investors will lose money. * The fallout will be bigger than the dot com bubble. * If oil was a bubble fueled by cheap Fed money, what's next? * If the collapsing oil prices threaten recession, the Fed may launch QE4. * If the Fed does not launch QE4, other bubbles will be affected. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Des 201419min

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33 * Catalyst for the rally was the Retail Sales Report * Cars represent the largest part of the gain * Any slight good news is overblown * Bad news is ignored * Economy is not driven by spending * Economy is driven by savings and production * Gold stable and up on the year against the dollar * Those who question the Government's numbers are being called "Truthers" Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Des 201423min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

stopp-verden
lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
dine-penger-pengeradet
e24-podden
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
finansredaksjonen
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
pengepodden-2
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
pengesnakk
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
utbytte
aksjepodden
rss-sunn-okonomi
lederpodden
stormkast-med-valebrokk-stordalen
okonomiamatorene
rss-rettssikkerhet-bak-fasaden-pa-rettsstaten-norge-en-podcast-av-sonia-loinsworth
shifter