Is the Powell Put in Play? Ep. 330

* Near 300 point drop in the Dow * NASDAQ down 118 * S&P down 30 points * $1.50 gain in oil and oil stocks up * No significant economic news that would trigger this move * Dollar was not down much lower on day * The 110 level is holding back the euro * Expectations that the euro will roll over on higher U.S. interest rates kept the dollar up * A weak stock market is bad for the dollar and good for gold because the Fed is likely to not raise interest rates or launch QE4 * The only way the Fed can prevent a correction from turning into a bear market is by launching QE4 * The Fed has built this "recovery" on asset bubbles * Launching QE3 guarantees QE4 * The only thing that will stop perpetual stimulus is a currency crisis * Durable Goods Orders were estimated at .7% gain * Actual number came in at a 1.4% decline * Five consecutive monthly declines in Durable Goods X Transportation * The last time that happened was during the months surrounding the 2008 financial crisis * The U.S. economy today is the weakest it has been since the depth of the 2008 financial crisis * The final revisions to Q4 GDP due on Friday are estimated to go down * There's a good chance the number will be lower than 2% * Pundits are making excuses, saying that the "First quarter s always weak" or "It's the weather" * They don't want to come to terms with reality Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Mar 201510min

* Bad economic news coming in is more a deluge than a trickle * Dollar continuing to drift lower since "patience" was removed * New Zealand Dollar record high against the euro and the Australian dollar * New Zealand enjoys a strong currency, economic growth, low inflation and low unemployment * Swiss franc had a strong day today * Chicago Fed National Activity Index revised down to -.11 * Three consecutive months of declining numbers * Deteriorating numbers reflect pattern similar to pre-QE3 months * Existing home sales number below estimates * February new home sales up, however * Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8, twice as low as most negative forecast. declining 4 times in 5 months * CPI came in at .2%, exactly as expected; core up to 1.7 * Price of ground beef up 19.2%, at a record high * The jobs numbers are a lagging indicator * We are likely to see a jobs number downturn based on less optimistic assumptions * Weaker jobs number will keep rates low * The only thing that might drive rates higher is inflation, but goal of "medium term" is vague * Weaker economy and higher inflation will cause dollar to drop * When inflation is the only focus, it will be obvious that the Fed cannot raise rates, driving dollar down * A currency crisis will finally force the Fed to raise rates Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Mar 201524min

* The Fed removed the word "patience" from their statement while promising patience * We are likely to see weaker employment numbers, further delaying talk of rate hikes * Pundits who failed to foresee the 2008 crisis are now saying the "problem is solved" because they do not understand the problem * The problem is worse now than ever * The Fed caused the 2008 crisis and they are in the process of creating the next, much larger crisis * I have been critical of QE 1,2 and 3 and low interest rates because they only mask the problem * "Failure of Capitalism" comments are actually criticizing our socialist economic policy * The same applies to the Fed, as they are price-fixing the market * Faulty logic assumes that low inflation is the reason for the weak economy * Low inflation, which is not as low as reported, is a silver lining in the economy right now * The rich are making money on inflation because they are leveraged and speculating * Inflation undermines the middle class, business and job creation * Who will be blamed when the consequences of the Fed's policy finally result in crisis? * Free market capitalism is the solution Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Mar 201529min

* The Fed released long-awaited FOMC official statement * Indicating they will be more patient without the word "patient" than when they were officially patient * Why take the word away in the first place? * The Fed wants to appear to be moving closer to a destination to which it has no intention of arriving * The Fed is clearly more concerned about the economy today; they reduced growth estimates * Janet Yellen said she will not raise rates until she sees improvement in the labor market * The Fed not satisfied with 5-1/2% unemployment * The jobs number is the outlier and will turn around * Housing starts collapsed in February; biggest in 8 years * Economic Surprise Index is most negative in memory * It doesn't matter what the unemployment rate is; the Fed can't raise rates without creating a financial crisis worse than 2008 * The minute the Fed went down the path of QE, they sealed our fate * There is now so much debt that we need QE more than ever * The dollar had a huge rise in anticipation of rate hikes * The Fed is more likely to launch QE4 than to raise interest rates * The Fed is not going to raise interest rates until there is a currency crisis * When the dollar turns, commodity prices will surge in all currencies * The fact that the day of reckoning has been delayed with increased debt means a bigger payday for Euro Pacific Capital investment strategy * It will be better to restructure and default on some of our debt that to deflate it away * Understand the end game, ride it out and have the last laugh Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Mar 201524min

* The Foreign exchange markets continue to ignore the darkening U.S. economic picture * Dollar had best two-week gain since the financial crisis of 2008 * Market exuberance based solely on the jobs report which is an outlier among all other negative news * Why aren't the jobs numbers being questioned? * We have had three consecutive months of declining retail sales * Falling prices are reflecting a lack of demand * The stock market has begun to decline, bracing for Fed rate hikes * Gold held steady against the dollar; up against other currencies * Inventory to sales ratio lowest since 2008 * This week the Atlanta Fed reduced Q1 GDP down to .6% * The second revision for Q4 could be below 2% * Poor GDP numbers already being blamed on the weather * Europe looked to US QE as a success because inflation was masked * The European market is already issuing negative bonds in anticipation of ECB purchase (QE) * The Germans are going to push back when they see inflation * At lease Europe will be able to withstand higher rates because of smaller debt and trade deficit * U.S. won't be able to tolerate the consequences of rate hikes which would ultEimately heal the economy * Therefore inevitable QE4 will be even larger than QE 1,2 & 3 combined Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

14 Mar 201524min

* The NASDAQ 5,000 party ended nearly the day it began * NASDAQ down more than 80 points * Dow Jones down 332 points * Outside reversal week a reliable pattern signaling a downturn * The market believes optimistic non-farm payrolls will trigger Fed rate hike * Dollar hitting new highs * Janet Yellen is the victim of too much success, allowing for rate hike assumptions * All data other than jobs numbers are weak * If we continue along this path, we are heading toward recession * Stock market and real estate bear markets will trigger QE4 * Stock market will drop dramatically if rate hike notion is not dispelled * Obama Administration floating trial balloon on student loan debt discharge for bankruptcy * This moral hazard would force education prices even higher Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

11 Mar 201517min

* February Non-Farm Payrolls Number - 295,000 jobs * Unemployment down 5.5% * Analysts were expecting a miss * Dollar at a new high * Productivity dropped 2.2% * Factory orders fell for the 6th consecutive month * Economic data points only seen during recessions * The Dow closed down - NASDAQ down more * Labor force participation rate is down * Average hourly earnings flat * Number of people not in the labor force at an all-time high * Increase in jobs represents people working more than one jobs * 45% of the 295,000 jobs are assumed to have been created by optimistic government statisticians * Disconnect between the weak GDP and the jobs numbers * Consumer credit declined, indicating the consumer is struggling * It's a good time to take advantage of the strong dollar and invest abroad Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

7 Mar 201544min

* Poland became the 21st country to lower interest rates this year * New record low to 1.5% * Polish economy is strongest in three years * Growing faster than the U.S. economy * Policy conundrum: what is inflation target? * Low inflation stimulating Polish economy * Yet Central Bankers look to illogical Keynesian textbooks * Where is the evidence that deflation is undermining the economy? * There is no magical point where a good thing becomes a bad thing * If they overcompensate and weaken the economy, they will be raising interest rates on an already weak economy * Poland could afford to raise rates, however, if this policy fails, because their debt is low * U.S. debt is so high, we can't afford to raise rates in order to support the dollar * When inflation picks up in the world and other central banks raise rates, the dollar will decline * The Fed will be unable to curb inflation because we can't afford to service our debt * Ultimately this will precipitate a currency crisis when it becomes apparent that the Fed has run out of options Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

5 Mar 201521min