What Are Investors Smoking? – Ep.  387

What Are Investors Smoking? – Ep. 387

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GM Hit New Low for the Year
If you want to look at some of the signals you're getting from the markets, look at the automobile stocks: General Motors and Ford, which are basically the only 2 automobile companies we have left. (Chrysler is now owned by Fiat.) They both hit 52-week lows today and they're both in bear markets. General Motors closed at $33.91 - a new low for the year. The stock was as high as $46.76 in June. The stock is down almost 30% in the last couple of months. It's a bear market.
Ford at a Six-Year Low
The story at Ford is even worse. Ford was up at around $12 a couple of months ago. It is down to $9.27. If you look at its high - it was at $16 in September of 2014. Ford is down to where it was the summer of 2012 - 6 years ago. It's at a 6-year low. If we go any lower we'll be at an . 8-year low.
Two Auto Companies Solidly in Bear Market
So you've got our 2 automobile companies solidly in bear market territory, making new lows. These are vital parts of the economy. There are many industries that feed off these companies, the aftermarket industries. These are the good jobs, the high paying jobs that Trump promised to bring back. Remember he was really campaigning in Detroit and other places where they make cars. These companies are hitting multi-year lows.
Tariffs Aren't Helping Auto Industry
So the tariffs aren't working. The tax cuts aren't working. The auto companies are going down. Remember, stocks are forward looking, so the stocks are basically saying that there is a big slowdown coming in the automobile sector. Profits are not going to be there. Tax cuts are not going to be very valuable if there aren't any profits.
Industry Slowdown in Home Building
Also look at what is happening with the home building companies. All these stocks getting killed - some down over 5% today alone. They are pretty much all in bear market territory. So now the homebuilders are also saying, "The industry is going to slow down."
Autos and Housing Are Not Booming
Those are 2 very important sectors of the economy: housing and autos. If they are on the verge of recession. If the stocks in those sectors are forecasting recession, how is it possible that the U.S. economy is experiencing a "historic boom"? "It's booming like it's never boomed before!" Yet autos and housing are not only not part of the boom, they're actually having a bust. Riddle me that, Batman. How is it that the economy is so strong when these two key sectors are so weak?
Interest Rates and Inflation
Why are these sectors so weak? Well one reason, of course, is rising interest rates. Everybody believes that interest rates are going to keep rising which means more nails in the coffin of the auto sector and the housing sector. And of course, both housing and autos are being hit by inflation because of raw material costs. It's more expensive to build cars - it's even more expensive to build homes.
Tariffs Attacking Our Vendors and Bankers
The tariffs are getting higher. Trump was out today saying he is going to put another $240 billion of tariffs on Chinese products in addition to the $200 billion we already have queued up and yesterday he was talking about going after Japan and we're the ones who have the most to lose by picking all these fights with all the countries that are supplying us the goods we need and loaning us all the money we need. We're basically attacking our vendors and our bankers and somehow think this is a good strategy.
Big Leading Indicators Say Something is Wrong
So you can't have a recession in autos and housing simultaneously and somehow the rest of the U.S. economy is impervious. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Episoder(1085)

Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43

Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43

* Dow down 600 points in between Tuesday high and Wednesday low * Stock market and real estate are pillars of the phony recovery * Loose government lending standards encouraging mortgage defaults * Dollar down and gold up on low retail sales numbers * Fed not likely to sit out a U.S. recession, trading support for Wall Street over the dollar * The next QE could be bearish for bonds and the dollar * Demise of the recovery illusion will also hurt stocks * Bitcoins down on more bad news * Price does matter as investors seek value * Irredeemable digital currencies will never be money Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Jan 201533min

Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42

Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42

* December jobs report up; unemployment down * Average hourly earnings dropped * Labor force participation hits new low, except for older Americans * Fewer young workers supporting the Social Security system * Most credit comprised of student loans and auto loans * Auto delinquencies highest since 2008, indicating a bubble * Obama's plan to make community college free will further inflate costs * Charles Evans calls for more inflation before raising interest rates * Denies relationship between cheap money and bubbles * The term "patience" indicates no timeframe for higher rates * Gold stocks very strong and gold prices continue to rise in face of rising dollar Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

11 Jan 201521min

Gold Breaks Out, Stocks Break Down – Ep. 41

Gold Breaks Out, Stocks Break Down – Ep. 41

* World markets left the gates weak on first full trading week of the year * Catalysts: Declining oil prices and Greece's potential Eurozone exit * The Euro has gone sideways against the dollar for 9 years * The U.S. stock market will decline until the market believes rate hikes are off the table * U.S. will not experience accelerating growth in 2015 * Evidence shows the home market is not strengthening * Young entrepreneurship at a 20-year low * Falling oil prices are a symptom economy is not expanding Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

6 Jan 201522min

As The New Year Begins, Will The  Recovery End? – Ep. 40

As The New Year Begins, Will The Recovery End? – Ep. 40

* Falling unemployment trends seem to be over * PMI "unexpectedly" drops to 53.9% * Construction spending "unexpectedly" fell .3% * December ISM fell to 55.5 * Draghi's comments at ECB sparked U.S. Dollar rally despite weak data * Eurozone QE not likely * 2014 was a flat year for gold, despite bad press * Dollar price based on higher interest rate expectations * Price of gold has tripled since 2005 * Gold mining costs rise with inflation * The real bubble is the confidence in central bankers Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Jan 201535min

Christmas Snow Job on Wall Street – Ep. 39

Christmas Snow Job on Wall Street – Ep. 39

Christmas Snow job on Wall Street * Dow ended Christmas Eve Day above 18,000 for second day * Catalyst was bigger than expected revision to Q3 GDP to 5% * Big disconnect between economic performance and expectations * Consumer spending up mostly on healthcare * Inventory increases in expectation of future sales * Data for Q4 is lower * Home sales continue to drop Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Des 201426min

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball – Ep. 38

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball – Ep. 38

SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball * Negative deposit rates in Switzerland send U.S. stocks up 420 points. * Two-day Wall Street rally over 700 points on nothing but Central Bank inflation * Swiss move triggers QE speculation and higher gold prices * Janet Yellen merely suggested the economy is strong enough to raise rates in the future * Meanwhile, economy is slowest since last February Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Des 201422min

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her – Ep. 37

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her – Ep. 37

Yellen Bluffs Future Rate Hikes and Traders Pretend to Believe Her - Ep. 37 * FOMC wrapped up meeting with Yellen press conference * Most people expected "considerable time" to be dropped * Bloomberg believes "considerable" dropped in favor of "patience" * The Fed didn't change anything * The Fed didn't actually say anything * Markets up on Yellen's optimistic non-news * Why wait to raise interest rates? * The longer the Fed waits to raise rates, the more painful it will be for the economy * What is the Fed's strategy if economy slows down? Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

18 Des 201425min

You Know the Bubble’s About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice – Ep. 36

You Know the Bubble’s About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice – Ep. 36

You Know the Bubble's About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice Ep. 36 * Oil and Russia viewed to be at the epicenter of this week's market chaos * Why is the oil price dropping? The market anticipates a drop in demand due to global recession * Winding down of QE triggering market instability * Economic data still pointing to weakness * Russia raised interest rates to 17% * Ruble crisis is a "dress rehearsal" for the dollar crisis * Our currency crisis will be worse because of our debt * Euro and Yen rallying * This morning gold was up, down, ended up * Volatility indicates changing trends * A recession in the U.S. means QE4 Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Des 201424min

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