How Many Canaries Have to Die? – Ep.  401

How Many Canaries Have to Die? – Ep. 401

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Overwhelming Evidence of a Weakening Economy
The Dow Jones was the only one of the major indexes to close the day higher. The S&P was down slightly, we had larger declines in the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000. More importantly than the movements that we've just seen on the day, or even the week, look at what's happened thus far during the month of October, which I had been warning on my podcast. It looked like there could be a weak October, given where we were in the market, given how ridiculous the sentiment was in the face of overwhelming evidence that the economy was weakening
Russell 2000 Down 9.2%
If you look at the numbers, the Dow Jones is down 3.8% so far on the month. That's the best performing of the averages. The S&P, down about 4.7% on the month, Nasdaq Composite down 7.4%; the transport down 8.3% and the Russell 2000 - 9.2% decline. Remember, the Russell 2000 is where everybody wanted to buy. Earlier last month the talk was that you needed to be in the Russell 2000 because the rest of the world was in trouble, you needed a safe haven from all the turmoil around the world, that the U.S was going to win the trade war, and of course, the companies that had the least vulnerabilities to the trade war were the domestic companies that weren't multinational and those are the companies that you would find in the Russell 2000. Small-company U.S. stocks - so people were piling in. Those are the stocks that have done the worst. Down 9.2% on the month.
Gold, Gold Stocks Up; Bond Yields Continue to Rise
While stocks were going down, gold was going up. Gold is up about 3% so far during the month of October. Gold stocks doing even better - GDX and GDXJ each up about 8% so far on the month.

Bond yields continue to rise; they were higher today; higher on the week; higher on the month and as bond yields are rising, the dollar is also rising, but ever so slightly. We're not seeing that much of a gain in the dollar. But ultimately, the dollar is going to turn around when people finally what should have been obvious all along: that the U.S. economy is not nearly as strong as is generally believed. It is certainly not as strong as the Federal Reserve is claiming.
Markets Fall as Fed Shrinks Balance Sheet
The FOMC minutes were out earlier this week and once again, the Fed is displaying extreme confidence in the U.S. economy as it continues to maintain its stance that it will continue to raise interest rates; that it is going to continue with its plan to shrink its balance sheet. Of course that is the real reason that the markets continue to fall. The Fed continues to threaten the markets with higher interest rates.
When You're in a Bear Market, You Don't Need an Excuse for the Market to Go Down
Yesterday, we had a pretty big drop in the markets intra-day; the Dow surrendered some gains and a lot of the people in the media were trying to figure out what was to blame. They were pointing to speeches that Larry Kudlow made where he was talking tough against China or Trump talking tough or even European Union getting tough with Italy - I forget all the various excuses.

But, you know what? the market would have probably fallen even if none of those things had happened. When y0u're in a bear market, and I think there's a very good chance we're in a bear market, you don't need an excuse for the market to go down. The market just goes down.

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Episoder(1085)

Sexist Female Reporter Refuses to Apologize to Male Victims – Ep. 72

Sexist Female Reporter Refuses to Apologize to Male Victims – Ep. 72

* Big double standard in the media regarding "sexism" * Rolling Stone story based on complete fiction about a woman who claimed she was raped in a fraternity house * The reporter accepted the woman's story without checking sources * After the facts were out, the reporter apologized to everyone except the men who were falsely accused and the fraternity involved * Where is the outrage that the real victims did not receive an apology? * Is it sexist to assume that men do not deserve apologies when wrongly accused? * The reporter refuses to condemn the woman who lied * The primary apology must go to the wrongly accused, the fraternity and to the university Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

8 Apr 201518min

Media’s “Rand Paul Can’t Win” Nonsense – Ep. 71

Media’s “Rand Paul Can’t Win” Nonsense – Ep. 71

* Media's take: Why run for President if you can't win? * "He's too Libertarian to win" * "He is not as Libertarian as his father" * "Rand Paul is closer to the mainstream than his father" * His chances are as good as anyone's at this point * He is actually closer to his father than he is to the mainstream * If you like Ron Paul, how can you not like his son? * Rand will maintain his father's supporters * There are a lot of Libertarian Republicans, and Rand will attract most of those votes * Rand has a chance to win in 2016 and in 2020 * If he wins, he will maintain his strong principles Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

8 Apr 20159min

Frontline Perspective on the Government’s War on Liberty – Ep. 70

Frontline Perspective on the Government’s War on Liberty – Ep. 70

* When employers empower certain groups with special privileges they become clubs with which to beat the employer * Employers are then reluctant to put themselves in a position to be bashed with that club * Large companies must prove diversity and go out of their way to hire minorities * That kind of discrimination is the right of the employer * Whenever you hire anyone you make yourself vulnerable to frivolous suits * The government has made American business less competitive by appealing to the job seekers not the the job creators * This eventually backfires on the job seekers by minimizing the number of employers * I established my offshore bank because government regulation made it so much harder for me to service my international clients * This drove away jobs that would have been in America * Now it is impossible for our company to accept foreign accounts, including Americans living overseas * My offshore bank may not accept offshore accounts or non-American customers * Government regulations are now making it difficult on Americans who live abroad * Every business in the country is being undermined by growing government regulation Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

7 Apr 201519min

Market’s Delayed Reaction to the Jobs Report – Ep. 69

Market’s Delayed Reaction to the Jobs Report – Ep. 69

* Markets are finally getting a chance to react to worst jobs report in two years * March non-farm payrolls coming in at about half of forecast * Dollar was off about 1% on FOREX * Stock futures were down on opening bell but shot 100 points higher * "Bad News is Good News" rally * CNBC thinks jobs takes June rate hike is off the table - but it was never on the table in the first place * The Fed will not be serving a September rate hike either * It's going to be an all you can eat "QE Buffet" * The dollar should have sold off more, but the bull market persists * Currency traders are using circular logic about the strong dollar * The dollar is rising for the same reason that the economy is slowing - the Fed has suspended QE and higher rates are expected * The effects of a strong currency should build over time * When the dollar uptrend ends, it will be a collapse because there are so many people on the wrong side of the trade * March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index slipped more than expected - lowest since June 2014, a two-year low * Monday WSJ article said that if Fed is worried to raise rates even a quarter of a point, then the U.S. Economy is not as strong as everyone thinks * If the Fed really believes the economy is strong, they would have already raised rates * Continued low interest rates indicate the Fed does not believe the economy is strong. * Crude Oil continues to rebound - above $53/barrel * If we close above $54, the market should see move up to mid $70's * Higher oil prices will start to hurt consumers Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

7 Apr 201515min

Will April Showers Rain on the Wall Street Excuse Parade? – Ep 68

Will April Showers Rain on the Wall Street Excuse Parade? – Ep 68

* April Fool's Day and all the fools are buying U.S. stocks * Atlanta Fed GDP Now Estimate for Q1 GDP finally down to zero * Despite the fact that the economy is worse than the 2008 crisis, Wall Street expects a Q2 boom * Last Q2 was boosted by Obamacare spending and inventory build * No data supports wishful thinking that Q2 will stage a comeback * U.S. corporate profits fell despite Wall Street gains * Q4 corporate profits dropped by 3% * Final revision for Q4 GDP held at 2%, weaker than expectations * First back to back decline in March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment since October 2013 * Personal Income and Spending rose only .1%, missing expectations for 4th consecutive month * Savings rate increased to 5.8%, contrary to Fed's objective to maintain spending bubble * Savings increase is problematic for the Fed because it undermines the spending spree that masquerades as wealth * The Fed will have to launch QE4 to encourage more spending * The March Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index plunged by 17.4%- the sharpest 1-month decline since 2008 * Chicago PMI was below 50 in March - near 6 year lows * March ADP numbers lowest in 14 months - biggest miss vs expected in 4 years * March ISM Manufacturing Index dropped again to 51.5 - lowest level in 22 months - 5-month decline - first time since 2008 * Construction spending "unexpectedly fell" * Zero might not be the floor for Q1 GDP * Stock market weakening again - oil and gold up * U.S. dollar no longer making new highs * Everyone is going to come to the same conclusion at once triggering violent moves in the market * Right now there are still people willing to buy the dollar, but eventually there will be no one to take the other side of those trades * Countries with smaller balance sheets will start raising rates when dollar plunges and commodities rise * Friday jobs number, the Fed's gauntlet, will start reflecting the rest of the bad economic news * Rate hikes are so far into the future they are beyond QE4 Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

2 Apr 201525min

If You’re Not Free to Discriminate You’re Not Free – Ep. 67

If You’re Not Free to Discriminate You’re Not Free – Ep. 67

* Indiana passed a law to prevent lawsuits targeting religious objection * Pressure and feigned outrage from the left wing machine causes Governor to walk back the meaning of the law * The mark of a free society is the willingness to tolerate intolerance * Liberals are the most intolerant of other peoples' intolerance * In a free market there is always someone who wants my business, even if someone else does not * I would rather get the intolerance out in the open, and just avoid that business * It looks like the Indiana gay couple were searching for a business that would object to participating a gay wedding * Why can't there be a business for bigots? * It doesn't hurt anyone but the business, because it narrows the customer base * The Governor can't stand up for what he believes * Why doesn't he just say that the law allows certain individuals to discriminate based on religion * A small segment of the community is holding everyone else hostage * There is some inherent hypocrisy - whom is it OK to discriminate against? * It should be legal to discriminate against anybody * Government should not give a license to do what they should naturally have a right to do * The government is extolling privileges on individuals that turn into weapons, frivolous lawsuits, and undermine our economy Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Apr 201537min

Since When is Filing a Frivolous Lawsuit Heroic? – Ep. 66

Since When is Filing a Frivolous Lawsuit Heroic? – Ep. 66

* If an employee sues an employer falsely, the employer has no recourse, because it could be interpreted as retaliation * Ms. Pao lost not only on her discrimination claim, she also lost on claim that she was retaliated against * The big problem is the reaction in the media * The tone in the press is supportive to Ms. Pao, even though she was not telling the truth * She was suing for $16 million - her motive was greed * This is not a "victory for women" - it is a loss * The suit makes employers reticent to risk false gender-based accusations * The press promise more sexual discrimination cases in the pipeline, suggesting someone might "get lucky" * Most gender-based lawsuits are never litigated - they are settled for cash * Employers are not going to discriminate based on gender * Gender discrimination is a poor business strategy * This case sends a loud message to employers to avoid the risk of gender based discrimination by avoiding women Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

31 Mar 201524min

The Truth About Gender-Based Discrimination Lawsuit – Ep 65

The Truth About Gender-Based Discrimination Lawsuit – Ep 65

* Pao v. Kleiner Perkins: there should be no damage even if there was discrimination * The law against discrimination is unconstitutional * Employees are free to discriminate - they can work for whomever they want * Why should an employer then lose that right? * Everyone should be free to deal with the consequences of their choices Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Mar 201519min

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