Michael Zezas: What to Expect from Presidential Debates

Michael Zezas: What to Expect from Presidential Debates

As debate season begins among Republican presidential candidates, can investors hope to glean market insights for 2025 and beyond?


----- Transcript -----


Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the impact of presidential debates on markets. It's Wednesday, August 23rd at 10 a.m. in New York.


Several candidates seeking the Republican Party's nomination for president take the stage in the debate tonight. Coverage of the event in traditional and financial media has escalated in anticipation of the debate. And while it's a good idea for voters looking to understand the candidates better and make an informed choice to tune in to the debate, for those tuning in looking for something that might guide their perception of how the 2024 election might impact financial markets, our guidance is this: lower your expectations.


This debate, the first among many, is likely to tell us a lot less about who the nominee will be than traditional polls. Those polls show former President Trump with solid support that surpasses his main rivals. And while, of course, there's plenty of time for that to change, debates this early in the process haven't historically been reliable indicators of changes in support that may follow. This may be even more true this time around, since President Trump is not attending this debate. And so it will be more difficult to get a read as to which candidates might be better suited than others to make a more persuasive argument to Republican voters than the former president.


Additionally, debates this early in the process generally tell us little about potential policy changes that could result from any one of these candidates ultimately being elected in 2024. Stock and corporate bond investors, in theory, might be very interested in what these candidates have to say about a variety of pending corporate tax code changes starting in 2025. But one shouldn't expect candidates to get into that level of detail on the debate stage. General comments about making sure the tax code doesn't work against the economy are far more likely. Further, the ability of any candidate to execute on their policy vision is going to be a function of the makeup of Congress, which again, this debate is unlikely to give us much information about.


Bottom line, the 2024 election will be consequential to the markets, but tune in to the debate to inform yourself as a voter. As we've said in previous podcasts, it's too early to expect to learn anything that will help you as an investor.


Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague, or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

Episoder(1515)

Andrew Sheets: A Transformational Sweep?

Andrew Sheets: A Transformational Sweep?

A look at the 2008 and 2016 U.S. elections suggests that a sweep by either Democrats or Republicans could push stocks and bond yields higher in 2021.

30 Okt 20202min

Michael Zezas: Election Night Strategy for Investors

Michael Zezas: Election Night Strategy for Investors

For investors, election night could hinge on moments when markets conclude who has won, not necessarily on when media networks call a winner.

28 Okt 20202min

Mike Wilson: 3 Sticking Points for U.S. Equities

Mike Wilson: 3 Sticking Points for U.S. Equities

U.S. equity markets have been stuck range bound due to three key concerns, but investors could use that uncertainty to their advantage.

26 Okt 20203min

U.S. Election 2020: Divided Government Scenarios

U.S. Election 2020: Divided Government Scenarios

In part two of our special election episode, we look at the policies that could potentially come out of divided party control among the White House, Senate and House, and how they might impact markets.

23 Okt 20207min

U.S. Election 2020: Straightaways and Detours

U.S. Election 2020: Straightaways and Detours

What is the road ahead for global markets between now and inauguration day? The answer may fall into two categories: straightaways and detours. Part one of a special two-part episode.

22 Okt 20209min

Michael Zezas: What's Going On With The U.S. Bond Market?

Michael Zezas: What's Going On With The U.S. Bond Market?

The yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries are now at multi-month highs, prompting some investors to ask “What’s going on?” Analysis from Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas.

21 Okt 20202min

Mike Wilson: Why the Correction May Not Be Over

Mike Wilson: Why the Correction May Not Be Over

Uncertainty about fiscal stimulus, the U.S. election and the pandemic could mean the correction isn’t over. However, one thematic opportunity could present itself.

19 Okt 20203min

Andrew Sheets: Are Markets Pricing-In Recent U.S. Election Polls?

Andrew Sheets: Are Markets Pricing-In Recent U.S. Election Polls?

Although many investors view markets as a highly efficient prognostic machine, the surprises of the 2016 election may have created more hesitancy to guess election outcomes.

16 Okt 20202min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

stopp-verden
dine-penger-pengeradet
lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
e24-podden
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
finansredaksjonen
rss-vass-knepp-show
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
pengepodden-2
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
okonomiamatorene
utbytte
rss-markedspuls-2
lederpodden
rss-sunn-okonomi
rss-fri-kontantstrom
rss-impressions-2
aksjepodden