Daily Briefing - Nov 5, 2020

Daily Briefing - Nov 5, 2020

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by Jay Pelosky, co-founder and CIO of TPW Investment Management, to provide an update on his current outlook amid a turbulent election and uncertain future with stimulus and COVID-19. Pelosky argues that markets are getting closer to end of this period of peak uncertainty around these variables and that deep cyclicals like airlines and oil will rally sharply higher. Pelosky also explains that as the election race comes to a close, markets have been oversold in the past week and are becoming more comfortable with the idea of a split government as investors gain clarity. He digs further into the question of stimulus - a matter of “when,” not “if” - and contends that a vaccine may roll out sooner than stimulus, which would cause the markets to react aggressively, raise rates, and could set up a rotation trade out of tech and into cyclicals. Finally, he also discusses asset allocation and his thesis of a tripolar world. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin looks at markets rallying as the U.S. presidential election outcome is still uncertain and analyzes the K-shaped recovery that continues to form as the job market remains high. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Episoder(1969)

Adventures in Finance 17 - Demographics Are Destiny

Adventures in Finance 17 - Demographics Are Destiny

Neil Howe isn't only a household name for finance-types, he coined the term "Millennials" and literally wrote the book on generational analysis. This week, he shares his insights on where we stand in his Fourth Turning framework and what it means for markets and society. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Simon Mikhailovich, Founding Partner of Toqueville Bullion Reserve, shares what he got wrong about liquidity and leverage during 2007. (A very special thanks and congratulations to our producer, James, and his Mrs. on the arrival of their baby girl, Hayley!) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

26 Mai 20171h 9min

Adventures in Finance 16 - Having Reservations: US Restaurant Revenues Signal Recession Risk

Adventures in Finance 16 - Having Reservations: US Restaurant Revenues Signal Recession Risk

What if restaurant sales could predict the next recession? According to Paul Westra, Senior Research Analyst at Stifel, decades of restaurant sales data accurately predicted the last two US recessions, and the next one might be the biggest one yet. In 'Things I Got Wrong', and back by popular demand, Chris Cole, CIO of Artemis Capital Management, talks about what he got wrong in adjusting his systematic strategy to a new market regime. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

19 Mai 20171h 2min

Adventures in Finance 15 - Crises, Bubbles, Scandals: Financial History Uncensored (Part 1)

Adventures in Finance 15 - Crises, Bubbles, Scandals: Financial History Uncensored (Part 1)

"The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see", Sir Winston Churchill. Men and women of historical significance understood the importance of history. Tim Price, partner and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and author of Investing Through the Looking Glass, kicks off our extended look at the history of financial crises and scandals, and what they can tell us about the future. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Alex Gurevich, CIO of HonTe Investments, shares what he got wrong about conflating market forecasting with other realms of expertise.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Mai 20171h 15min

Adventures in Finance 14 - Feeding the Future: Debt, Demographics, & Dinner Plates

Adventures in Finance 14 - Feeding the Future: Debt, Demographics, & Dinner Plates

The agricultural industry sustains human life but is taken for granted and is subject to volatile cycles. Alan Boyce, former Soros Fund Management Director and Agtech investor, talks us through the biggest challenges facing the industry and major blind-spots few are aware of. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Daniel Want, CIO and co-founder of Prerequisite Capital Management, shares what he got wrong about the end-game in Australian real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

5 Mai 20171h 8min

Adventures in Finance 13 - What Lies Beneath: Volatility in a Peaceful World

Adventures in Finance 13 - What Lies Beneath: Volatility in a Peaceful World

Volatility permeates markets, nature, and life. Yet, it is monumentally misunderstood, and often to ruinous consequences. Stephen Diggle, Founder of Vulpes Investment Management, and Chris Cole, Managing Partner at Artemis Capital Management, get at the heart of what individual investors need to know about volatility. 'In Things I Got Wrong', Chris Martenson, Founder of PeakProsperity.com, shares what he got wrong with market structure and communicating emotionally charged ideas. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

28 Apr 20171h 13min

Adventures in Finance 12 - Bass and Burbank, A Masterclass

Adventures in Finance 12 - Bass and Burbank, A Masterclass

Learn from hedge fund legends as Kyle Bass interviews John Burbank III to reveal insights and ideas that differentiate truly independent market thinkers from amateur speculators. In 'Things I Got Wrong', John Netto, the Protean Trader and Author of The Global Macro Edge, discusses his error in preparing for catalysts and the evaluation framework that sprung from this experience. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

21 Apr 20171h 7min

Adventures in Finance 11 - Broken Promises: The Impending Global Pension Crisis

Adventures in Finance 11 - Broken Promises: The Impending Global Pension Crisis

The financial system will soon witness a collision between an unstoppable force and an immovable object. Pensions around the world are being crushed under the weight of trillions in unfunded liabilities while hundreds of millions of Baby Boomers are advancing to retirement in ever greater numbers, creating a perfect storm for the next crisis that is all but mathematically certain to happen. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Preston Pysh (@PrestonPysh), co-host of The Investors Podcast, shares crucial lessons about applying value investing principles in times of crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Apr 20171h 10min

Adventures in Finance 10 - Carson Block: Short-selling Legend and Market Vigilante

Adventures in Finance 10 - Carson Block: Short-selling Legend and Market Vigilante

Carson Block, Founder of Muddy Waters Research, single-handedly dismantles fraudulent companies and his research can cause stocks to plummet 90% in market cap. As one of the world's preeminent short-sellers, Carson shares his incredible story and process for identifying fraudulent targets. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Dr. Steve Keen, professor of economics at Kingston University London, fesses up to misjudging the Australian real estate bubble. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Apr 201750min

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