Napier and Johnson: The Money Riddle

Napier and Johnson: The Money Riddle

For the past decade, Russell Napier has correctly called for disinflation, dissenting with the conventional wisdom that inflation is on horizon. Yet he has changed his mind, and in this conversation with Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, Napier explains why he believes the inflationary tides, so long delayed, may soon arrive on the shores of currencies such as the dollar and the euro. Napier argues that fiscal authorities are, via macroprudential regulation, essentially compelling commercial banks to lend and are also requiring them to hold unattractive assets such as negative yielding debt. This new force, Napier continues, will succeed where quantitative easing (QE) has failed in expanding commercial bank balance sheets. Johnson and Napier analyze how this new potential regime will impact affect pensioners, students, and savers as well as how it will shape the destiny of every asset class ranging from equities to Treasurys, from European bank debt to currencies, and from mortgage-backed securities to fine art. . For more charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3lsOdZw and https://rvtv.io/36BS7cC. Key learnings: Rapid growth of the money supply coupled with low inventories could push the U.S. into a reflationary whirlwind. Napier has an inflation target of 4% for the OECD because he believes macroprudential regulation will compel large financial institutions to lend and hold dubious assets to an unprecedented degree. This view is not necessarily bearish for the dollar, nor for emerging market (EM) currencies, which might prove more resilient than many anticipate. But, it does spell trouble for the Euro, which is already in a bad way. Recorded on November 11, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Episoder(2002)

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 24, 2020

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 24, 2020

Ash Bennington hosts Tony Greer, Editor of the Morning Navigator, to get a trader's-eye view of what’s happening in markets. Greer unpacks the underlying supply & demand dynamics of what drives markets higher during dismal news cycles in this must-see wrap-up of the week’s market action. With markets and headlines moving faster than ever, we are now bringing all Real Vision members a new ultra-timely show to help you keep up with the dynamic news cycle. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

24 Apr 202039min

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 23, 2020

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 23, 2020

In this episode of the Real Vision Daily Briefing, Managing Editor Ed Harrison hosts Roger Hirst for a discussion about emerging market credit risk, helicopter money, and the unwinding of the commodity daisy chain. With markets and headlines moving faster than ever, we are now bringing all Real Vision members a new ultra-timely show to help you keep up with the dynamic news cycle. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

23 Apr 202030min

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 22, 2020

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 22, 2020

Ash Bennington hosts Roger Hirst for a discussion about governments’ response to coronavirus and its implications for fiscal and monetary policy. The pair also cover the broader outlook for the global economy and the risk of structural changes caused by the pandemic. With markets and headlines moving faster than ever, we are now bringing all Real Vision members a new ultra-timely show to help you keep up with the dynamic news cycle. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

22 Apr 202035min

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 21, 2020

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 21, 2020

Ash Bennington hosts Ed Harrison, Real Vision’s managing editor, to break down the day’s events. In today’s episode, Bennington and Harrison continue their discussion on oil markets — and tie the broader macroeconomic fundamentals into technical market dynamics. The pair also discuss MMT, the structure of the USO ETF, and emerging market debt forbearance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

21 Apr 202036min

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 20, 2020

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 20, 2020

Ash Bennington hosts Ed Harrison, Real Vision’s Managing Editor, to break down the day’s events. Today, the pair take a deep dive into the chaos of the profoundly fractured oil markets. Bennington and Harrison also discuss the long-term prognosis for the eurozone in a post-coronavirus world. In the intro, Jack Farley discusses the teetering CLO market and analyzes a short play that has paid off big time. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

21 Apr 202039min

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 17, 2020

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 17, 2020

Ash Bennington hosts Ed Harrison, Real Vision’s Managing Editor, to break down the week’s events. The pair cover the U.S. banking sector, risks to the commercial real estate market, Russian central bank policy action, and compare and contrast the timing and trajectory of the COVID Crisis to the GFC. Bennington and Harrison end on a discussion of the changing role of China in the global political and financial system in the wake of the current crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

17 Apr 202040min

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 16, 2020

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 16, 2020

On today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing, Roger Hirst and Ed Harrison discuss FX markets, high yield credit, and EM fixed-income through the lens of Brent Johnson’s “dollar milkshake theory” and Mike Green’s thoughts on the concentration of capital. Harrison and Hirst analyze the impact that the Fed’s yield curve control will have on net interest margins for banks and whether central banks will draw a “line in the sand.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

16 Apr 202030min

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 15, 2020

Adventures in Finance - Daily Briefing - April 15, 2020

Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Roger Hirst to talk markets and economics. In this episode, Bennington and Hirst discuss the dismal economic data coming out of the U.S. including industrial production, retail sales, and the Empire State Manufacturing index. The pair also consider oil prices, the crisis’s impact on the money market, and potential durable shifts to the structure of the American economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

15 Apr 202037min

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