Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/41tyn6M. David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins Ash Bennington to share his views on the current state of the economy, a growing disconnect between supply and demand, and what it means for the potential of a recession. David also discusses the bubble he sees forming in the stock market, and where he's spotting investment opportunities. Recorded on Thursday, June 20th. This episode is brought to you by TOKEN2049 Singapore. Join over 20,000 attendees for the world’s largest crypto event: TOKEN2049 Singapore on 18 to 19 September. 🔥 Visit www.realvision.com/token2049 for 15% off tickets, only with the code 'REALVISION’. Timestamps: 00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 01:01 - Introduction of David Rosenberg 01:37 - David's perspective on the current economy 02:18 - Comparison to the 2007 economic outlook 03:33 - Recession pressures and the business cycle 04:11 - Impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy 05:25 - Credit card debt and delinquency rates 06:41 - Changes in consumer behavior and credit card balances 07:53 - The role of excess savings and stimulus checks 08:27 - San Francisco Fed report on excess savings 09:02 - Consumer revolt against high prices 10:06 - Discrepancy between current economic conditions and the Fed's statements 11:23 - Historical comparisons to 2008 and recession signals 12:34 - Overstated non-farm payrolls and data revisions 13:37 - Signs of a potential recession in various economic sectors 14:13 - GDP growth and economic activity slowing down 15:17 - Lack of catalysts for re-acceleration in growth 16:26 - Importance of supply and demand in forecasting inflation 18:11 - Expectations for disinflation and Fed rate cuts 19:20 - Discussion on current trend growth and productivity gains 21:04 - Labor force participation and its impact on the economy 22:15 - Disconnect between productivity gains and aggregate demand 23:26 - Impact of housing and consumer behavior on the economy 24:34 - Global economic conditions and their effect on US exports 25:40 - Outlook on inflation and interest rates without a recession 26:16 - Increasing unemployment rate and its impact on wages 27:23 - Supply curve dynamics leading to disinflation 28:43 - Capacity growth in the industrial sector 29:18 - Expectations for inflation to reach the Fed's target 30:26 - Implications for asset prices and the stock market 31:39 - Concentration risk and the impact of high-performing tech stocks 33:33 - Concerns about excessive valuations and investor behavior 35:08 - Importance of thematic investing and capital preservation 36:50 - Sectors with growth potential: Aerospace, defense, utilities, and healthcare 38:57 - Trading down and frugality trends among consumers 40:14 - Staples and essential sectors as investment opportunities 41:37 - Utilities as a growth area due to climate change and infrastructure needs 43:17 - The role of gold and gold mining stocks in a disinflationary environment 44:56 - Impact of passive indexation on market distortions 46:41 - Risks of bubble bursts and historical parallels 48:02 - Potential market corrections and investor psychology 50:13 - Advice on profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing 51:57 - Importance of capital preservation and conservative investing 52:36 - Final thoughts on the current market cycle 53:47 - Importance of historical context in investing decisions 54:33 - Sentiment and psychology driving market behavior 55:52 - Recommendations for protective strategies in investing Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Episoder(2000)

US Jobs Data, German Output Drop, and ECB's Easing Nears End: PALvatar Market Recap, June 6 2025

US Jobs Data, German Output Drop, and ECB's Easing Nears End: PALvatar Market Recap, June 6 2025

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe. ⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today’s update, Palvatar breaks down a mixed U.S. jobs report, with 139K jobs added and unemployment holding steady at 4.2%. German industrial production disappoints, and Japan’s consumption weakens. The ECB cuts rates to 2% and hints it's nearing the end of its easing cycle, boosting the euro. Circle's IPO stuns with a 168% surge, while Tesla reels from a Musk-Trump spat. All the macro noise, filtered and decoded – only with Palvatar. 🔹 Why tune in? Stay ahead of market-moving developments with concise, data-driven insights 🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com 1️⃣ This episode is brought to you by Figure, the platform to Earn and Borrow. Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure offers Crypto-Backed Loans, allowing you to borrow against your Bitcoin or Ethereum with 3-month terms and no prepayment penalties. 2️⃣ They have the lowest rates in the industry at 9.9%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event.Unlock your crypto’s potential today. 3️⃣ Visit ⁠figure.com/realvision⁠ to apply for a ⁠Crypto Backed Loan⁠ today! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit ⁠figure.com⁠ for more information. Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets. Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/ Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

6 Jun 5min

ECB Cuts Rates, Weak US Jobs Data, and Circle’s IPO: PALvatar Market Recap, June 05 2025

ECB Cuts Rates, Weak US Jobs Data, and Circle’s IPO: PALvatar Market Recap, June 05 2025

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe. ⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today’s update, Palvatar covers the ECB’s expected 25bps rate cut amid weak Eurozone data, Germany’s surprising factory order uptick, and China’s steady services sector. In the U.S., weak ADP job growth and a contraction in ISM Services PMI raise recession concerns. On the crypto front, Circle debuts on the NYSE with a strong IPO, and Hong Kong moves to expand crypto derivatives trading. Stay tuned for more insights in tomorrow’s recap. 🔹 Why tune in? Stay ahead of market-moving developments with concise, data-driven insights. 🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com 1️⃣ This episode is brought to you by Figure, the platform to Earn and Borrow. Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure offers Crypto-Backed Loans, allowing you to borrow against your Bitcoin or Ethereum with 3-month terms and no prepayment penalties. 2️⃣ They have the lowest rates in the industry at 9.9%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event.Unlock your crypto’s potential today. 3️⃣ Visit ⁠figure.com/realvision⁠ to apply for a ⁠Crypto Backed Loan⁠ today! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit ⁠figure.com⁠ for more information. Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets. Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/ Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

6 Jun 5min

Trading the Markets: June 4, 2025

Trading the Markets: June 4, 2025

🔥 *Get Raoul Pal's FREE Report to Unf*ck Your Future* https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe It's time to talk Trade Ideas... Real Vision's Kris Bullock and Nico Brugge are back to break down their favorite trades from the Real Vision community before taking questions from the audience. Tune in every Wednesday at 1pm ET live on Real Vision, YouTube, and X. 🔥 Arch Public: It’s a hedge fund in your pocket. Built for retail traders, designed to outperform Wall Street. Try it for free: https://realvision.com/arch 📣 Today’s sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you’re a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500’s user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you’ve been looking for. 👉 Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss. ⬜ Take control of your data and keep your private life private by signing up for DeleteMe. Now at a special discount for our listeners. ⬜ Today get TWENTY PERCENT off your DeleteMe plan by texting VISION to 64000. The only way to get twenty percent off is to text VISION to 64000. That’s VISION to 64000. Message and data rates may apply. Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. About Real Vision™: We arm you with the knowledge, tools, and network to succeed on your financial journey. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Website: https://www.realvision.com/join Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/linkedin 👉 Join our Discord channel and meet like-minded people: discord.com/invite/kYQY2Nd45Y Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Jun 44min

ECB Rate Cut, German Tax Breaks, and Strong U.S. Jobs Data: PALvatar Market Recap, June 4 2025

ECB Rate Cut, German Tax Breaks, and Strong U.S. Jobs Data: PALvatar Market Recap, June 4 2025

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe. ⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today’s update, Palvatar highlights key central bank moves, with the ECB expected to cut rates and the Bank of Canada holding steady. European markets rally on German tax break news, while Asian stocks jump after South Korea's election. In the U.S., job openings and hiring beat forecasts, despite falling factory orders. Trump’s new tariffs add tension ahead of his upcoming talks with Xi Jinping. 🔹 Why tune in? Stay ahead of market-moving developments with concise, data-driven insights. 🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com 1️⃣ This episode is brought to you by Figure, the platform to Earn and Borrow. Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure offers Crypto-Backed Loans, allowing you to borrow against your Bitcoin or Ethereum with 3-month terms and no prepayment penalties. 2️⃣ They have the lowest rates in the industry at 9.9%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event.Unlock your crypto’s potential today. 3️⃣ Visit ⁠figure.com/realvision⁠ to apply for a ⁠Crypto Backed Loan⁠ today! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit ⁠figure.com⁠ for more information. Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets. Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/ Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Jun 5min

Ukraine Strikes and Market Moves | Macro Mondays (June 2, 2025)

Ukraine Strikes and Market Moves | Macro Mondays (June 2, 2025)

Andreas Steno, founder and CEO of Steno Research, joins Mikkel Rosenvold, the firm's partner and head of geopolitics, to discuss the latest Ukrainian drone strike on Russian air bases, surging commodity prices, the state of sanctions, and why the U.S. dollar is weakening. 📣 *This episode is brought to you by Bitwise Asset Management*. Bitwise has been all-in on crypto since 2017 and has more than 20 crypto-based products to help investors get the necessary access. Bitwise manages the world’s largest crypto index fund, one of the top Bitcoin ETFs, and one of the largest institutional Ethereum staking solutions. Bitwise has over $10 billion in assets under management and over 100 people in the US and Europe to help manage everything from ETFs to private alpha strategies to SMAs for large investors. 👉 *Check out Bitwise at https://bitwiseinvestments.com and let them know that Real Vision mentioned them*. Carefully consider the extreme risks associated with crypto before investing 🔥 Arch Public: It’s a hedge fund in your pocket. Built for retail traders, designed to outperform Wall Street. Try it for free: https://realvision.com/arch 🔴 On October 1-2, 2025, crypto will converge in Singapore for TOKEN2049. Over 25,000 attendees, 500+ exhibitors, and 300 speakers will shape the future at the world’s largest crypto event. 🔴 TOKEN2049 Singapore will take over the entire iconic Marina Bay Sands, transforming it into a pop-up city for the global crypto ecosystem. Expect an exceptional speaker lineup, an electric expo, and a festival unlike anything you’ve experienced. 🔴 With 1,000+ side events all around TOKEN2049, Singapore will be the industry’s focal point from September 29 - October 5, capped off by the Formula 1 Grand Prix Weekend. 🔴 Secure your spot now at asia.token2049.com and get an exclusive 15% discount on top of the Super Early Bird rate with the promo code REALVISION — only while tickets last. 📣 Today’s sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you’re a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500’s user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you’ve been looking for. 👉 Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss. ⬜ Take control of your data and keep your private life private by signing up for DeleteMe. Now at a special discount for our listeners. ⬜ Today get TWENTY PERCENT off your DeleteMe plan by texting VISION to 64000. The only way to get twenty percent off is to text VISION to 64000. That’s VISION to 64000. Message and data rates may apply. Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. Music license ID: WJ6TRPVHFD About Real Vision™: We arm you with the knowledge, tools, and network to succeed on your financial journey. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Website: https://www.realvision.com/join Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/linkedin Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Jun 32min

Eurozone Inflation Falls, China’s PMI Slumps, and OECD Cuts Forecasts: PALvatar Market Recap, June 3 2025

Eurozone Inflation Falls, China’s PMI Slumps, and OECD Cuts Forecasts: PALvatar Market Recap, June 3 2025

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe. ⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today’s update, Palvatar highlights a major inflation drop in the Eurozone, deflation in Switzerland, and contraction in China’s manufacturing sector. Global growth worries rise as the OECD slashes forecasts, especially for the U.S. Political instability also grabs attention with turmoil in the Netherlands, Poland, and South Korea. Meanwhile, mixed U.S. manufacturing data reflect the impact of tariffs. It’s a packed episode with key macro insights from around the globe. 🔹 Why tune in? Stay ahead of market-moving developments with concise, data-driven insights. 🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com 1️⃣ This episode is brought to you by Figure, the platform to Earn and Borrow. Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure offers Crypto-Backed Loans, allowing you to borrow against your Bitcoin or Ethereum with 3-month terms and no prepayment penalties. 2️⃣ They have the lowest rates in the industry at 9.9%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event.Unlock your crypto’s potential today. 3️⃣ Visit ⁠figure.com/realvision⁠ to apply for a ⁠Crypto Backed Loan⁠ today! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit ⁠figure.com⁠ for more information. Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets. Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/ Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Jun 6min

Tariff Tensions, Japan’s CapEx Surprise, and Eurozone PMI Stabilization: PALvatar Market Recap, June 2 2025

Tariff Tensions, Japan’s CapEx Surprise, and Eurozone PMI Stabilization: PALvatar Market Recap, June 2 2025

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe. ⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today’s update, Palvatar unpacks Trump’s proposed tariff hikes on steel and aluminium and their ripple effects on global markets, especially in Japan. Despite trade tensions, Japan saw a surprising rise in corporate capital spending. In Europe, manufacturing PMIs hint at early stabilization, with Germany and the Eurozone showing signs of recovery. Looking ahead, markets await key U.S. data and a likely rate cut from the ECB. Tune in for deeper insights from Macro Mondays. 🔹 Why tune in? Stay ahead of market-moving developments with concise, data-driven insights. 🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com 1️⃣ This episode is brought to you by Figure, the platform to Earn and Borrow. Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure offers Crypto-Backed Loans, allowing you to borrow against your Bitcoin or Ethereum with 3-month terms and no prepayment penalties. 2️⃣ They have the lowest rates in the industry at 9.9%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event.Unlock your crypto’s potential today. 3️⃣ Visit figure.com/realvision to apply for a Crypto Backed Loan today! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information. Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets. Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/ Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

2 Jun 4min

Tariff Reinstatement, Falling PCE Inflation, and Rising Jobless Claims: PALvatar Market Recap, May 30 2025

Tariff Reinstatement, Falling PCE Inflation, and Rising Jobless Claims: PALvatar Market Recap, May 30 2025

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report ⁠https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe⁠. ⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today’s update, Palvatar breaks down the return of Trump-era tariffs and their impact on global sentiment, alongside the latest U.S. inflation data showing a continued cooling trend. Rising jobless claims and a drop in Q1 corporate profits raise questions about the labor market. Abroad, Germany faces a retail slump while Japan posts strong inflation. All eyes are on the ECB and BOJ as diverging trends set the stage for major policy decisions next week. 🔹 Why tune in? Stay ahead of market-moving developments with concise, data-driven insights. 🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com ⬜ This episode is #sponsored by @FigureMarkets—the platform to Earn and Borrow. ⬜ Unlock your crypto’s potential today—click below to apply for a Crypto Backed Loan today! figure.com/realvision Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries.  Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets.   Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/  LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/⁠    Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: ⁠https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

2 Jun 5min

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