Record Confidence in U.S. Stocks Means Trouble Ahead – Ep. 292

Record Confidence in U.S. Stocks Means Trouble Ahead – Ep. 292

Optimism Rules the Day
Friday the 13th was not an unlucky day for the U.S. stock market; all three of the major stock market averages closing at all time record highs. Optimism is ruling the day. In fact, there was a consumer confidence number that came out today revealing confidence in the economy - the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence - and this is a measure of the belief that the U.S stock market will be higher 12 months from now than it is today. By that measure, consumers have more confidence in the U.S. stock market than they have ever had in the past. That would include where we were just before the '08 Financial Crisis and where the market was at the peak of the dot com bubble.
Complacent Investors
In fact, there are other measures of investor sentiment that have never been this high. Look at the VIX, for example, which is really a measure of risk, of investors' need to hedge their portfolios. If you look at that, the VIX is at all time record lows. Investors have never been this complacent about the U.S. stock market - ever! And all of those measures of fear, confidence, are at the lowest and highest readings, respectively, that they've ever been, even though the U.S. stock market is extremely expensive.
Not a Bubble?
The U.S. stock market has only been this expensive near the peaks of previous bubbles. But what's different about this bubble is a) it's bigger, and b) people are even more confident now that it is not a bubble. You have less fear, less anxiety and investors are more convinced that they can't lose than at any prior time, despite the fact that we actually probably have more risk now than during any of the previous bubbles. Of course, it's not just the investors who are confident. Consumer confidence is high, in fact the consumer confidence number came out much higher than expected today.
Government Inflation Numbers Real? Not.
The dollar rallied on that today. Initially, down because of the lower than expected CPI, which is seen, paradoxically as good for the dollar if there is less inflation. Somehow, the way the markets react, if there is not enough inflation, they reduce the probability of a rate hike, so the dollar sold off. The PPI that came out yesterday was a little higher than expected, so people were worried: "Oh, well, maybe there's more inflation, then the CPI comes out and it's lower than expected. Of course none of these numbers are actually real, because we all know consumer prices are rising a lot faster than these indexes purport to show.
Fed Confusing Inflation with Employment
Of course, then the Fed complains that we don't have enough inflation. In fact the Fed actually claims they don't even understand why inflation is so low; they expect it to be higher. Ironically, not because of all the money they printed, they think inflation should be higher based on how low the unemployment is. They are looking at the Phillips curve and they don't understand why we don't have more inflation when the unemployment rate is so low. They don't understand that there's no real relationship between employment and inflation. If there was, it's the opposite of what they think. When people are productively employed, and making more things, that tends to keep prices down. When people are unemployed, governments have to subsidize them by printing a lot of money and making a lot of unemployment benefits or welfare benefits, that will generally lead to higher consumer prices. If anything, they will be correlated together, not opposite.





Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Avsnitt(1081)

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 8

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 8

This week, we're releasing a series of podcasts to get current information out on a more basis. We appreciate your feedback on this new format. Episode 8 Segment 1: * Contrary to GDP number, consumers are still struggling. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

28 Okt 201413min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 7

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 7

Episode 7 Synopsis * More deflation/inflation propaganda * The Fed prefers inflation because at least they know how to fight it * Money printing in Venezuela* Bloomberg warns Yellen not to follow Sweden's example * Obamacare premiums going up after the election* Mark Cuban's plan to limit student loans * Wells Fargo employee demands $10,000 raise for himself and other employees * British Minister under fire for suggesting intellectually disabled should be able to work for less than minimum wage * News about QE4 * Yellen ironically speaks up on wealth inequality Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Okt 20142h 12min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 6

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 6

Episode 6 Synopsis * Big downside moves in global equity markets * U.S. stock market trends * Gold moves upward * U.S. Dollar weakness * A detailed analysis of this month's FOMC minutes * Share buybacks and other artificial boots to the stock market * More Obamacare blowbacks against the job market and employee healthcare * The straight story on misleading reports on the economy * How California labor law put a vineyard out of business * Interview with Paypal co-founder Peter Thiel in his new book Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Okt 20142h 20min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 5

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 5

Episode 5 Synopsis: * Debunking Ned Davis' predictions on gold * Chicago Fed president Charles Evans hints that the Fed can't raise interest rates * Alan Greenspan gives Fed a pass on CNBC * Brokerage houses hit by FINRA arbritation results * Eurozone low inflation 'scare' * Collapse in Fannie and Freddie stock * The numbers behind the weekly economic data Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

6 Okt 20142h 24min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 4

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 4

Episode 4 Synopsis * Launch of the iPhone 6 * Surprising employment arbitration results * Housing market rolls over * Hotel minimum wage * World Bank head claims that QE works Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

28 Sep 20142h 23min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 3

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 3

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 3 Synopsis: * FOMC: Janet Yellen's official statement and her response to her Q&A, later in the day * Market reaction to Yellen's statement, and the "walk" vs the "talk". * The Ali Baba IPO * The breakdown in the price of Bitcoin * My crazy email exchange with CNBC's Joe Kernen * Scotland votes to remain in the UK Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Sep 20142h 4min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 2

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 2

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 2 Synopsis * Economic Data - More weak data * Purchase applications index declined by 7.2% - biggest decline in 14 years * Treasury yields slightly up for the week * Retail sales up - Buying more or paying more? * auto purchases with cheap money * inflation not taken into account * Auto loans increasingly delinquent * Fed Policy * I'll admit to being wrong if the Fed raises interest rates back to normal and shrinks its balance sheet back to normal, as promised, and does not produce a financial crisis. * Interest Rates * Negative Interest Rates in Japan and in Switzerland * Inflation * Paul Krugman says we should be at 4% inflation and a minimum wage of $10.10 * Commentary on Henry Blodgett's inflation comments * Column from David K. Johnson on how corporations are getting rich by paying taxes * Employment * Jobless claims up, indicating a trend change * The Economy * Recognizing bubbles ahead of the crisis * Europe - Poll on Scottish independence * Social Issues: * The NBA in the hot seat for racism * Over-reaction to the Ray Rice story Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Sep 20142h 3min

Schiff Radio Podcast Episode 1

Schiff Radio Podcast Episode 1

Schiff Radio Podcast Episode 1  Synopsis: * Wall Street foolishly dismisses August's horrible Jobs Report * ECB cuts rates in misguided push for higher inflation. * "Shrink-flation," what is it and why those using the term still don't get it. * Implications of Switzerland's coming gold reserve vote . * Protesting Fast food workers determined to put themselves out of work. * Does Alibaba's biggest IPO in history shows portent more interest in foreign stocks? * Countrywide's Anthony Mozilo is not the real villain. * NY Fed concedes 25% of college grads wasted their time and money. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

9 Sep 20141h 52min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

badfluence
framgangspodden
varvet
rss-borsens-finest
uppgang-och-fall
rss-svart-marknad
avanzapodden
svd-ledarredaktionen
rss-dagen-med-di
lastbilspodden
24fragor
borsmorgon
affarsvarlden
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
fill-or-kill
kapitalet-en-podd-om-ekonomi
rss-en-rik-historia
dynastin
rikatillsammans-om-privatekonomi-rikedom-i-livet