Most Banks Would Fail Stagflation Stress Test – Ep. 365
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast23 Juni 2018

Most Banks Would Fail Stagflation Stress Test – Ep. 365

Stagflation
Nobody realized just how bad the economy is, but they're about to find out. All of the economic data that came out this week points to stagflation, if you look at the data. Look at the Philly Fed - dropped down to 19. It is the biggest drop in 4 years; the lowest since the election. Look at the manufacturing PMI - those numbers came out yesterday - dropped to a 7-month low, the lowest since November 2017. If you look at the actual numbers - new orders fell sharply but input cost rose to their highest since September 2013. So you have rising input costs, yo have falling orders; to me this is all stagflation.
The Fed's Stress Test was too Easy
As I pointed out, even Alan Greenspan, not too long ago on CNBC talking about stagflation. He can see it. But you know who can't see stagflation? anyone at the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve announced the results of their stress tests, and surprise, surprise! Everybody passed. So the Federal Reserve designed tests to measure the banks that they regulate would perform under adverse economic scenarios. First of all, if a teacher gives a test, and everybody gets an A, then the test was too easy. Clearly the Federal Reserve designed this test so that everybody would pass, which of course, is why the test means nothing. Obviously they don't want to announce that the banking system is not sound, so they want to run these bogus stress tests to create a false sense of confidence in the banking system.
Look at the Fed's Assumptions
I want to actually look at the stress test. You really can't tell anything unless you look at the assumptions. What type of stress is the Federal Reserve assuming the economy might encounter? First of all, you have the most likely scenario they assume - their base case. Their base case scenario, which is their forecast is that everything is great. The economy continues to grow 2 - 2.5%/year - a little bit more this year but then it slows down. Inflation stays right at 2%, interest rates stay about where they are, unemployment goes a little bit lower - everything is great, right? Now, their adverse scenario goes as follows: the U.S. has a mild recession, and during that mild recession the Federal Reserve is able to lower interest rates down to about zero again. The yield on the 10-year falls to about .75%, so 10-year yields fall below 1%; Inflation falls; they don't say how low but it falls below 2%, unemployment rises and peaks at 7%. This is their adverse scenario. Interest rates go back down to zero. That doesn't sound that horrible. Inflation goes down - what is so horrible about lower inflation? This is not that bad.
The Elephant in the Room is Stagflation
But then, you've got to look at their extreme. In that scenario, we have a bigger recession, and according to the Federal Reserve, there is a global aversion to buying government debt, like bonds. So because of that aversion, the yield on the 10-year doesn't fall to .75% the way it does under the adverse scenario, it stays where it is - right around 3%. So because interest rates do not fall, there is a bigger decline in asset prices - I think they have a 65% decline in stock prices, a 30% decline in real estate prices, unemployment rises to 10%, and inflation falls to 1%. I can't help but laugh at this severely adverse scenario, where inflation is only 1% and the Fed is able, again to lower interest rates down to zero. What is the Fed missing? The elephant in the room: stagflation.
The 2008 Financial Crisis Was Not Even Close to the Worst Case Scenario
There's an old saying that generals always prepare to fight the last war, and the same is true with central bankers. What was the last war? It was the 2008 Financial Crisis. What happened during that crisis? Interest rates went down, inflation went down, the dollar went up (by the way, the adverse scenario also assumes appreciation of the dollar, Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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* Bond bulls haven’t thrown in the towel yet. * Biden wants to expand Obamacare. * Bitcoin moves from diamond hands to paper hands. Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member. Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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Fed Doves Pretending to Be Inflation Hawks Are Chickenhawks – Ep 796

* Bond market continues getting beaten up. * Lael Brainard spooks the markets with sudden hawk talk. * When you live in a glass White House, don’t throw stones. * Sanctions created a bottom and bull market for the Russian ruble. Join me and other world class speakers on the Traders Summit live online conference 8th-10th April! Register FREE here with one click: https://tradersummit.net/event-2022/?ref=1012 Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member. Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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Q1 Ends as Market and Economic Pain Begins – Ep 795

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2 Apr 202256min

German CPI Exposes ECB’s Low Inflation Lies – Ep 794

German CPI Exposes ECB’s Low Inflation Lies – Ep 794

* Europe has a serious inflation problem. * The ECB says the cost of living isn’t rising fast enough. * Politicians and central bankers are using covid and Putin as scapegoats for inflation. * The bigger the government, the bigger the problems. * Gold and oil react to peace talks in Ukraine. Get $300 off and FREE shipping at https://liveouter.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

31 Mars 202244min

The Fed Will Be Turning Japanese, I Really Think So – Ep 793

The Fed Will Be Turning Japanese, I Really Think So – Ep 793

* Japanese will pay higher taxes, officially or through inflation. * All bonds, not just treasuries, will fall in price. * Biden calls for new wealth tax. Thanks https://avast.com! Thanks Ladder. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

28 Mars 202255min

Stock Investors Bathing in Bond Blood Bath – Ep 792

Stock Investors Bathing in Bond Blood Bath – Ep 792

* Bond market has worst quarter since 1980. * Recession will not take care of inflation. * Mortgage rates will double far sooner than income. * Gold stocks outperforming tech stocks is a sign of things changing. * Biden will prolong the Russian invasion to scapegoat inflation crisis. * Ukraine is fighting for sovereignty, not freedom. * Idiot reporter asks Biden stupidest question ever. Thanks https://avast.com! Go to https://athleticgreens.com/peter to get a FREE 1 year supply of immune-supporting Vitamin D AND 5 FREE travel packs with your first purchase. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Mars 20221h 3min

Government Solutions Worsen Every Problem Government Creates – Ep 791

Government Solutions Worsen Every Problem Government Creates – Ep 791

* Stocks are going up and down while gold is just going up. * Bond prices are a function of government intervention and nothing else. * Bitcoin, tech, and meme stocks caught up in bear market rally. * Democrats’ Gas Rebate Act will fuel the inflation fire. Go to https://novo.co/gold and get your FREE business checking account INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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