Samim Ghamami on the Treasury Markets Impact on the Future Path of Interest Rates and Inflation

Daniela Gabor is a professor of economics and macrofinance at the University of West England at Bristol, where she works on shadow banking, capital markets, and transnational banking. Daniela is also a returning guest to the podcast, and she has a new paper out on the burgeoning field of critical macrofinance and how it sheds light on the past great financial crisis (2007-2009) and the present COVID-19 crisis. She re-joins Macro Musings to discuss this paper and how it can offer important insight into the current global economic environment. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Daniela's Twitter: @DanielaGabor Daniela's UWE Bristol profile: https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/DanielaGabor Related Links: *Critical Macro-Finance: A Theoretical Lens* by Daniela Gabor http://financeandsociety.ed.ac.uk/article/view/4408 *The Role of Time-Critical Liquidity in Financial Markets* by David Marshall and Robert Steigerwald https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2013/2q-marshall-steigerwald *The Growth of Financial Banking* by Anna Youngman https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/251239?mobileUi=0& *Daniela Gabor on Safe Assets and Shadow Banking* https://macromusings.libsyn.com/103-daniela-gabor-on-safe-assets-and-shadow-banking David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

22 Juni 20201h 4min

Darrell Duffie is a professor of finance at Stanford University, and he joins Macro Musings to discuss the treasury market problems that emerged in March 2020 and what can be done to avoid them in the future. Specifically, Darrell and David lay out the current state of financial markets, the ability of treasury markets, as currently designed, to handle demand shocks, and how central banking reforms can better ensure financial stability in the future. Register here for the Cato Institute/Mercatus Center Webinar Series - *A Fed for Next Time: Ideas for a Crisis‐​Ready Central Bank*: https://www.cato.org/events/fed-next-time-ideas-crisis-ready-central-bank Transcript for the episode can be found here. Darrell's Twitter: @DuffieDarrell Darrell's website: https://www.darrellduffie.com/ Darrell's Stanford profile: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/faculty/darrell-duffie Related Links: Bonus segment with Darrell: https://youtu.be/0Y3MTjgbP74 *Pass-through Efficiency in the Fed's New Monetary Policy Setting* by Darrell Duffie and Arvind Krishnamurthy https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/publications/passthrough-efficiency-feds-new-monetary-policy-setting *The Failure Mechanics of Dealer Banks* by Darrell Duffie https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.24.1.51 *Still the World's Safe Haven? Redesigning the U.S. Treasury Market after the COVID-19 Crisis* by Darrell Duffie https://www.brookings.edu/research/still-the-worlds-safe-haven/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

15 Juni 202052min

Peter Stella is a former IMF official, where he led the Central Banking and Monetary and Foreign Exchange divisions, and he now hosts a webpage titled *Central Bank Archeology*. Peter is also a former guest of Macro Musings, and rejoins to talk about the COVID-19 crisis, central bank balance sheets, and more. David and Peter also discuss the dangers and challenges of the Fed's off-balance sheet transactions, how the government should approach crisis financing, and who should be managing the country's public debt. The transcript for the episode can be found here. Peter's Twitter: @Stellar_Consult Peter's Voxeu profile: https://voxeu.org/users/peterstella0 Peter's Research Gate archive: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Peter_Stella Related Links: Peter's *Central Bank Archaeology* website: https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/ *Macro Musings: Peter Stella on Debt, Safe Assets, and Central Bank Operations* https://macromusings.libsyn.com/144-peter-stella-on-debt-safe-assets-and-central-bank-operations David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

8 Juni 20201h 2min

Adam Tooze is a professor of history at Columbia University, and is the author of many books, including his popular account of the 2007-2009 crisis, titled Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crisis Changed the World. Adam joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the COVID-19 crisis, the Eurozone, and the future of central banking. Specifically, Adam and David break down recent events and risks in the global financial system, the future of the dollar as reserve currency, and the implications of the recent German-Franco debt deal for the Eurozone. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Adam's Twitter: @adam_tooze Adam's Columbia profile: https://history.columbia.edu/faculty/adam-tooze/ Adam's website: https://adamtooze.com/ Related Links: *How Coronavirus Almost Brought Down the Global Financial System* by Adam Tooze https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/14/how-coronavirus-almost-brought-down-the-global-financial-system) *The Death of the Central Bank Myth* by Adam Tooze https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/13/european-central-bank-myth-monetary-policy-german-court-ruling/ *Still the World's Safe Haven?* by Darrell Duffie https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/WP62_Duffie_updated.pdf *Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff https://www.nber.org/papers/w23134 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

1 Juni 20201h

Alp Simsek is an associate professor of economics at MIT, and joins Macro Musings to talk about the link between financial markets, uncertainty and the COVID-19 crisis. Specifically, David and Alp discuss the dual absorption problem within financial markets, how supply shocks and demand shocks have inescapably become interwoven phenomenon, and why we should look to using macroprudential policy in the future. The transcript for the episode can be found here. Alp's Twitter: @alpsimsek_econ Alp's MIT profile: https://economics.mit.edu/faculty/asimsek Related Links: Bonus segment with Alp: https://youtu.be/eoGxYcWmH9E *A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation* by Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek https://www.nber.org/papers/w23614 *A Model of Asset Price Spirals and Aggregate Demand Amplification of a 'COVID-19' Shock* by Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek https://www.nber.org/papers/w27044 *Prudential Monetary Policy* by Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek https://www.nber.org/papers/w25977 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

27 Maj 202059min

Thomas Hoenig is a former vice chair of the FDIC, former president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, and is currently a distinguished senior fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Tom's research has focused on the long-term impact of the politicization of financial services, as well as the effects of government grant privileges on market performance. Tom joins David on Macro Musings to talk about COVID-19, the Fed's response to its economic impact, and the current state of banking in the United States. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Thomas's Twitter: @tom_hoenig Thomas's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/thomas-hoenig Related Links: Bonus segment with Thomas: https://youtu.be/CrA1WRtu0jc David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

25 Maj 202055min

Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, Professor Emeritus of economics at Bentley University, and a research fellow at the Independent Institute. As a returning guest to the podcast, Scott joins Macro Musings to give his latest thoughts on the COVID-19 crisis and its implications for monetary policy. Specifically, David and Scott discuss how the Fed can conduct more aggressive monetary policy, what a level targeting regime should look like in the future, and the current progression toward negative interest rates. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Scott's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/scott-sumner Scott's blog: https://www.themoneyillusion.com/ Related Links: Scott's bonus segment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8DXU_1oIsg&feature=youtu.be *Reforming the Fed's Toolkit and Quantitative Easing Practices: A Plan to Achieve Level Targeting* by Scott Sumner and Patrick Horan https://www.mercatus.org/publications/covid-19-policy-brief-series/reforming-feds-toolkit-and-quantitative-easing-practices *Negative Interest Rates and Negative IOER* by Scott Sumner https://www.econlib.org/negative-interest-rates-and-negative-ioer/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

20 Maj 202050min

Lev Menand is a legal scholar at Columbia Law School and has previously worked for the New York Fed, the US Treasury Department, and the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC). Lev Joins Macro Musings to talk about his new paper, *Unappropriated Dollars: The Fed's Ad Hoc Lending Facilities and the Rules that Govern Them*. Specifically, David and Lev discuss opening up public Fed bank accounts, the importance of liquidity and credit facilities, and how Congress is using the CARES Act to skirt the Fed's current legal mandates. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Lev's Twitter: @LevMenand Lev's Columbia Law profile: https://www.law.columbia.edu/faculty/lev-menand Related Links: Bonus segment with Lev: https://youtu.be/N9qndjjju9A *Unappropriated Dollars: The Fed's Ad Hoc Lending Facilities and the Rules That Govern Them* by Lev Menand https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3602740 *FedAccounts* by Morgan Ricks, John Crawford, and Lev Menand https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3192162 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

18 Maj 20201h 3min