AI Business Models, Rare Earths, and China's Economic Challenges

AI Business Models, Rare Earths, and China's Economic Challenges

In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore AI's effects on productivity, how AI business models will shake out, the US and China's rare earth minerals industries, and China's economic challenges, including demographics, real estate, and involution.

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  • AI can affect productivity in multiple ways: replacing humans, enhancing human productivity, creating new tasks, and increasing capital productivity
  • AI may follow other essential industries with low profit margins despite creating enormous value:
    • Like farming, solar power, and airlines
  • Code-related AI applications are seeing particularly strong adoption
  • Vertical AI applications in specific industries (healthcare, legal, real estate) are gaining traction
  • China controls the majority of rare earth mining and refining
  • The US has sufficient rare earth deposits but faces two challenges:
    • Regulatory barriers to mining
    • Lack of solvent extraction technology and know-how
  • China's fertility rate is lower than Japan and Europe
  • However, a "baby bulge" (ages 7-22) will support the workforce short-term

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Timestamps:
00:00 — Intro
00:52 — AI’s impact on productivity
02:27 — Debating whether AI will increase productivity
03:11 — Historical analogy: Electricity’s impact on productivity, lessons for AI
07:55 — Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite
09:57 — Application layer companies, AI in coding, vertical AI applications
12:49 — AI bubble vs. CapEx boom/bust, historical parallels (railroads, telecoms)
16:54 — Brand loyalty, price wars, and profitability in AI models
22:26 — US-China trade, rare earths, and supply chain challenges
32:20 — Sponsor: Found
33:33 — China’s demographic and economic challenges, over-competition, and deflation
54:06 — Recommendations for China’s economic policy, rationalizing the economy
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.


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Avsnitt(116)

Vitalik Buterin & Noah Smith | Is Authoritarianism Inevitable?

Vitalik Buterin & Noah Smith | Is Authoritarianism Inevitable?

In today's special episode, we're sharing a conversation between Noah Smith and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recorded back in June for the Bankless podcast. They discuss whether authoritarian regimes could outcompete liberal democracies in the 21st century, exploring the impact of technological advancements, the internet, and decentralized technologies like crypto on information dynamics and the preservation of liberal values. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/e7dc596f-bc8e-4574-aebd-c6f579a76175--🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. --RECOMMENDED PODCAST: BanklessThe Ultimate Guide to Crypto Finance. DeFi, NFTs, and cryptocurrencies. Level up. Go bankless.Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@BanklessApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bankless/id1499409058Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5ll0fkqIGyUfSOn9CTfHjC--SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://www.givewell.org and select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.IncogniTake your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/econ102--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@BanklessHQ@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Bankless: https://www.bankless.com/Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/How liberal democracy might lose the 21st century: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-liberal-democracy-might-lose Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

27 Nov 20241h 34min

DOGE, Political Realignment, and the End of 'Groups'

DOGE, Political Realignment, and the End of 'Groups'

This week, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith explore economic policies, political dynamics, societal issues, including the abolition of income tax, government agency efficiency, the evolving political landscape, technology's impact on freedom and dignity, and the challenges of maintaining a competent civil service. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/ab409e21-1697-4621-a9b8-cfd3149e4e35--🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.--RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Unpack PricingDive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg--SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.IncogniTake your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/econ102📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://www.notion.com/product/ai?utm_source=podcasts&utm_medium=upstreampod--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

21 Nov 20241h 15min

Post-Trump Reflections: Fixing Blue Cities

Post-Trump Reflections: Fixing Blue Cities

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the evolution and challenges of urban development in American cities, particularly the rise and fall of blue cities like San Francisco and New York, while exploring historical trends, fiscal policies, and socio-political dynamics. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/69fa9439-ace9-43c3-9a96-9876a7e440bc—RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Unpack PricingDive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg—SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.NetSuiteMore than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://www.notion.com/product/ai?utm_source=podcasts&utm_medium=upstreampod--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-blue-cities-must-be-fixed Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

13 Nov 202455min

Trump and Shadow President Elon

Trump and Shadow President Elon

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the aftermath of the Trump 2024 election, debating what to expect on political strategies, economic policies, and the power of figures like Elon Musk, while discussing potential shifts needed within the Democratic Party to address changing voter demographics. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/7411dfd6-68b4-4590-b8c5-64aac8ba953f--📰 Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.NetSuiteMore than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://www.notion.com/product/ai?utm_source=podcasts&utm_medium=upstreampod--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

7 Nov 202448min

Trump vs Kamala, Hereticon, Election Craziness

Trump vs Kamala, Hereticon, Election Craziness

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg examine the 2024 presidential election, Trump's influence on American politics, and the interplay of conservative movements with domestic and international issues. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/70765901-d8f7-46b6-b580-3cc3f3874b7f--📰 Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/crANROK is the enterprise-grade solution that automates sales tax compliance worldwide. Anrok tracks your exposure, calculates tax, and handles filings—all in one platform. Trusted by Notion, Anthropic, and Vanta. Visit https://www.anrok.com/turpentine to claim your free nexus study and take control of your SaaS tax strategy.📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

4 Nov 20241h 3min

Mini: Comparing the New Axis to WWII

Mini: Comparing the New Axis to WWII

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the historical Axis powers in comparison to today's emerging adversarial nations, emphasizing geopolitical dynamics, military capabilities, and the evolving balance of power. For full shownotes, visit highlight: https://highlightai.com/share/577e5681-76d2-498c-8ebc-7b136b1b598f--Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess--SPONSOR:GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

1 Nov 20246min

Mini: Tariffs on China, Trump, and National Security

Mini: Tariffs on China, Trump, and National Security

Noah breaks down the number one issue no one is grappling with in regards to tariffs on China. For full shownotes, visit highlight: https://highlightai.com/share/1835116c-516d-4cab-a2ee-19f4504bc263--Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess--SPONSOR:GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

25 Okt 202422min

Progressivism: Past, Present, Future

Progressivism: Past, Present, Future

This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg delivers a masterful analysis of American progressivism's rise, fall, and potential future resurrection as a class-focused movement in the 2030s. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/c29e2f67-3580-4753-913b-f87c744c6118--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --RECOMMENDED PODCAST:🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSzYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast--SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us. Weights & Biases Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/crANROK is the enterprise-grade solution that automates sales tax compliance worldwide. Anrok tracks your exposure, calculates tax, and handles filings—all in one platform. Trusted by Notion, Anthropic, and Vanta. Visit https://www.anrok.com/turpentine to claim your free nexus study and take control of your SaaS tax strategy.📝NOTION offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://www.notion.com/product/ai?utm_source=podcasts&utm_medium=upstreampod--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

23 Okt 202457min

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