The Lopsided Expansion | Aahan Menon on Why Long-Term Forecasts Don’t Make Money, And The Growing Divergence Between AI CapEx And Labor Market

The Lopsided Expansion | Aahan Menon on Why Long-Term Forecasts Don’t Make Money, And The Growing Divergence Between AI CapEx And Labor Market

Monetary Matters listeners can get 20% of Prometheus Macro Substack here: https://www.prometheus-macro.com/subscribe?coupon=a60c1c9f Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Macro and a trusted "quant's quant" for sophisticated hedge funds, joins Jack Farley to explain why his models are signaling a meaningful shift down in risk. While previously striking a bullish tone, Aahan reveals why his institutional strategies have moved from "max bullish" to neutral on equities and commodities. Aahan breaks down a concerning divergence in the economy: while GDP and spending are being propped up by a surge in AI CapEx and top-heavy consumption, the underlying labor market is weakening. He explains the "circularity" problem of AI investment—eventually, CapEx must turn into consumption, which requires wage growth that is currently stalling. Later in the conversation, Aahan challenges core macro beliefs, presenting data on why long-term economic forecasting and tracking "rates of change" generate negligible or negative alpha. He also details his current positioning, including being short homebuilders, long French bonds against Japanese JGBs, and his "Crisis Protection" portfolio. Recorded on November 25, 2025. Follow Aahan Menon on Twitter https://x.com/AahanPrometheus Follow Prometheus Macro on Twitter https://x.com/prometheusmacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Jaksot(248)

Navigating the SaaS Apocalypse: Why AI Disruption is Mispriced | Deiya Pernas | Pernas Research

Navigating the SaaS Apocalypse: Why AI Disruption is Mispriced | Deiya Pernas | Pernas Research

Monetary Matters listeners can save 20% on their first-year subscription to Pernas Research: http://pernasresearch.com/monetarymatters Software stocks have plummeted as the market prices in existen...

19 Huhti 1h 1min

Banks' “Considerable” Exposure to Private Credit | Chris Whalen on Banks’ Loans to NBFIs, Plus CRE, Gold, and Payments

Banks' “Considerable” Exposure to Private Credit | Chris Whalen on Banks’ Loans to NBFIs, Plus CRE, Gold, and Payments

Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm In this episode, banking specialist Chris Whalen joins Jack to unpack the hidden risks within recent bank earn...

18 Huhti 53min

Financial Repression, Pt. 1  | Professor Hanno Lustig on Hidden Taxes, Fiscal Sustainability, and Japan’s Debt Puzzle

Financial Repression, Pt. 1 | Professor Hanno Lustig on Hidden Taxes, Fiscal Sustainability, and Japan’s Debt Puzzle

Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm In this episode of Monetary Matters, Stanford University finance professor Hanno Lustig dives deep into the hidd...

15 Huhti 1h 30min

"I Don't Believe the Stagflation Narrative": How the Strong Consumer and AI Tailwinds Shape Sean Emory's Bullish Blueprint | Avory & Co

"I Don't Believe the Stagflation Narrative": How the Strong Consumer and AI Tailwinds Shape Sean Emory's Bullish Blueprint | Avory & Co

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&u...

14 Huhti 1h 10min

"The Best Time to Invest": How AI Disruption is Reshaping Software Valuations | Ben Topor | Titan Capital Partners

"The Best Time to Invest": How AI Disruption is Reshaping Software Valuations | Ben Topor | Titan Capital Partners

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&u...

9 Huhti 1h 2min

Private Credit “Doom” Narrative On Shaky Foundation? | Michael Haynes On Why Retail Outflows Are Real But Credit Foundations Are Solid

Private Credit “Doom” Narrative On Shaky Foundation? | Michael Haynes On Why Retail Outflows Are Real But Credit Foundations Are Solid

This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-m...

8 Huhti 1h 8min

Why Emerging Markets are Finally Outperforming Developed Markets | Robert Koenigsberger | Gramercy

Why Emerging Markets are Finally Outperforming Developed Markets | Robert Koenigsberger | Gramercy

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):   https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&ut...

7 Huhti 1h 9min

“Books Will Be Written” About This Shipping Market | Ed Finley-Richardson of Misadventures in Shipping on War-Induced Oil Tanker Mayhem, Squeeze for Asiabound Refined Products, and Persian Gulf “Feeding Frenzy” Scenario

“Books Will Be Written” About This Shipping Market | Ed Finley-Richardson of Misadventures in Shipping on War-Induced Oil Tanker Mayhem, Squeeze for Asiabound Refined Products, and Persian Gulf “Feeding Frenzy” Scenario

Listeners can get 20% off Misadventures in Shipping subscriptions through April 17th here: https://edfin.substack.com/monetary Subscription includes access to Substack research pieces and private ...

4 Huhti 2h 34min

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