The Big Macro Force That's Been Driving Stocks Higher for Years
Odd Lots11 Huhti

The Big Macro Force That's Been Driving Stocks Higher for Years

Stocks have gone up over the years because corporate earnings continue to grow. That part is straightforward. But in addition to rising stock prices, we've also seen rising stock market valuations. For years, investors have talked about stocks being unreasonably priced, and yet they haven't reverted to historical norms. But perhaps there's a good explanation for this, beyond just animal spirits. Jonathan Heathcote is an economist at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, who recently co-authored a paper titled, A Macroeconomic Perspective on Stock Market Valuation Ratios. Along with co-authors Andrew Atkeson and Fabrizio Perri, they argue that while stocks may look rich on metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, they look a lot better when based on free cash flow. In other words, because companies haven't had to invest much, their equity is more valuable. Furthermore, labor's share of the profits — the percentage that goes to workers relative to capital — has been on the decline. Of course, these days the big story is about how big, profitable tech companies are spending a fortune on capital expenditure for the AI buildout. So we talked to Jonathan about his research and discuss the possibility that this trend in free cash flow growth could reverse, and therefore hit stock market valuations, too.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jaksot(1184)

How Shipping Insurance Really Works During a War

How Shipping Insurance Really Works During a War

When the conflict with Iran started, some of the first headlines we saw had to do with shipping insurance. Marine insurers were said to be canceling war risk coverage for vessels going through the Str...

10 Huhti 53min

Thomas Peterffy on Interactive Brokers' Plan to Professionalize Prediction Markets

Thomas Peterffy on Interactive Brokers' Plan to Professionalize Prediction Markets

Right now, when you think about prediction markets, you basically think about two main companies: Polymarket and Kalshi. And then when you think of what's being traded on those platforms, there's a wh...

9 Huhti 50min

Search Engine Presents: Are you a good driver?

Search Engine Presents: Are you a good driver?

The story of how a secret project at Google led to driverless cars on American roads. And, an answer to the question: are the robots actually safer drivers than we are? Find Part 2: “The Trial of the ...

8 Huhti 1h 8min

Gina Raimondo on How European Industry Is Getting Crushed

Gina Raimondo on How European Industry Is Getting Crushed

The relationship between the US and Europe is deteriorating along both security and economic dimensions. The Trump administration has imposed tariffs, while also being sharply critical of NATO allies....

6 Huhti 45min

Scott Bok Explains What Investment Bankers Actually Do All Day

Scott Bok Explains What Investment Bankers Actually Do All Day

There's obviously a lot of talk these days about AI and possible destruction of white collar jobs. Intuitively bankers might be expected to be victims of this. But before we can answer whether AI can ...

3 Huhti 54min

This Is How to Tell if Writing Was Made by AI

This Is How to Tell if Writing Was Made by AI

When you consider the fact that many people don't know how and where to place a comma, it's safe to say that AI is already better than most people at writing. It's clean copy. It can be surprisingly p...

2 Huhti 48min

Javier Blas on Why Oil Could Go Much, Much Higher

Javier Blas on Why Oil Could Go Much, Much Higher

Oil has shot up by a lot since the start of war with Iran. But it could still get much worse. So far, the massive disruption (due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz) has been cushioned by the draw...

1 Huhti 41min

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
mimmit-sijoittaa
psykopodiaa-podcast
rss-rahapodi
rss-sisalto-kuntoon
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
rss-rahamania
rss-lahtijat
rss-startup-ministerio
rss-seuraava-potilas
rahapuhetta
hyva-paha-johtaminen
rss-karon-grilli
oppimisen-psykologia
sijoituspodi
lakicast
rss-bisnesta-bebeja
rss-yrittajan-mindset
rss-viisas-raha-podi
rss-porssipodi