Rate Hike Fear JOLTS Markets – Ep. 107

* Another day, another 450-point swing in the Dow Jones
* The market opened about 250 points higher off the back of overseas markets
* Japan was the standout; it was up about 7% on the hope of more money printing
* All overseas markets were stronger and the U.S. followed that lead, but at the end of the day, the market was down about 240 points, a lot of selling coming in the final hour
* Huge swings almost daily over several weeks generally indicates a change in trend
* The long-term trend of a rising market followed by extreme volatility usually marks the end of that trend
* All this volatility is based on rate hike uncertainty
* Sentiments range from rate hikes coming either in September, October, or December
* The first rate hike is not scaring everybody, it is the consequences of interest rate normalizaion
* If the Fed does raise rates, I think the market will start looking toward the next rate cut
* This bubble is so big, the slightest pin will prick it
* The Fed's only option will be stimulus to get out of the next recession
* The cycle will be much shorter because of the amount of debt we have
* Sentiment is coming from everywhere asking the Fed not to raise rates, which plays into the Fed's hand
* This disguises the Fed's actual intention not to raise rates
* Market volatility today was probable due to the JOLTS report today which unexpectedly jumped up to the highest level in years, indicating a huge number unfilled jobs
* The JOLTS numbers have been good for years, and wages still have not gone up
* This is just the raw number of jobs, so these may be a larger number of part time jobs open replacing full time jobs
* Many low-paying jobs won't be filled because entitlements provide higher compensation
* Everyone is on pins and needles because they know that cheap money is the only thing that is fueling the economy - it's not real earnings
* The market may have sold off anyway because there has been a lot of technical damage done to this market and it is likely to go down until the Fed admits that rates are not going up
* The stock market, unlike the foreign exchange market or the commodities market or the emerging markets have not discounted rate hike normalization
* This means that if the Fed does rates by a quarter point, the dollar could sell off because it is too little too late
* It could be the shortest tightening cycle ever
* The stock market needs to know that the Fed is not going to raise rates
* The U.S. will lose its safe haven appeal
* One small example why the Fed can't raise rates is the sub-prime Auto Loan bubble, which is now above a trillion dollars
* The short-term benefit to the economy is increased manufacturing, inventory and jobs
* But the huge reduction in credit quality of these loans provides risk of fewer future sales due to longer payoff terms
* It is much easier to default on an auto loan than it is to default on a home
* If we have a trillion dollars in auto loans, if we go into recession next year, we would lose at least $100 - 200 billion on car loans which will further exacerbate the recession in a big way
* High-paying jobs in the auto industry will be lost,and the Fed has to know this already
* Another trend is a record high in auto leases because they offer lower monthly payments
* Leases are not the best choice unless they are bought for a business, providing a tax write-off
* Otherwise, for personal use, your payments never end - you never own the car/li>
* I have already recommended not to borrow money to buy a car
* Save your money and buy a used car you can afford
* In the Chinese economy, most cars are purchased with cash, from savings
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