Fed Worried Cost of Living Not Rising Fast Enough – Ep. 112

* The Dow Jones finished up almost 140 points - back over 17000
* The Dow has now rallied 1,000 points since its lows on Friday following the lower than expected Non-Farm Payroll number
* The market originally sold off until traders realized that bad news is good news and they bought the dip
* The buying intensified today following the release of the FOMC minutes from the last meeting
* I predicted the markets would experience a rally based on the weak Non-Farm Payrol number
* The U.S. market looks like it's standing still compared to the markets overseas
* Now that so many traders are starting to connect the dots and realize that a rate hike is not around the corner we've seen a huge rally in overseas stocks, particularly in emerging markets
* All currencies continue to gain against the dollar
* Silver prices earlier in the week hit a 3-1/2 month high
* Gold got back above 1150
* Oil prices are close to $50/barrel
* All of this is happening because traders are beginning to pare back their rate hike bets
* In light of today's release of the dovish September FOMC meeting minutes the trend will intensify
* Why were people surprised by the dovish minutes?
* If you read the minutes, the real reason the Fed did not raise rates is because inflation is too low
* They also said they would risk credibility raising rates below 2%
* Lose credibility with whom?
* If they are afraid to raise rates with inflation below 2%, they why have they been bluffing that they are about to raise rates?
* The official inflation number has been below 2% the entire time they have been talking about a rate hike
* I have been saying that they will continue to pretend to raise rates, but they won't
* I thought it was funny that Netflix raised their rates 11% - the Fed must have thought this was good news
* The real reason the Fed won't rais rates is that they don't want to prick the bubbles
* We have a bubble in the stock market
* A bubble in the real estate market
* A bubble in the bond market
* Auto loans, student loans, consumer credit, art - you name it
* The Fed doesn't want the government to deal with higher interest rates
* Look at the headline in the Wall Street Journal about foreign central banks beginning to dump treasuries
* Look at how many treasuries China has sold
* This is the tip of a huge iceberg
* How is the Fed going to end QE when it has to take the other side of the mother of all trades?
* CNBC cited overseas problems washing up on our shore as the reason why the Fed won't be raising rates - these are not overseas problems
* The problems started here - they're just coming back
* The overseas markets were reacting to higher interest rates and a strong dollar
* This game is going to end - the next time the dollar goes down, it's down for the count
* Rather than having foreign central banks coming to its rescue, they are going to be joining in the dollar selloff just like everybody else
* I wanted to comment on an Robert Wenzel's article in the Economic Policy Journal
* Wenzel appears to be referring to me but does not mention my name
* Here's the title of his piece, dated September 18, following the most recent Fed meeting:
* "The Absurd Idea That The Fed is Not Going to Raise Rates"
* Wenzel refers to "certain so-called Austrians out cheering that they were proven correct in their view that the Fed will not raise rates..."
* Many people commented that he must be referring to Peter Schiff, but he denied this
* Wenzel seems to believe I do not think the Fed should raise rates
* I am not saying what I think the Fed should do, I'm saying what I think they will do
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