20VC: LLMs Are Reaching a Stage of Diminishing Returns: What is the Next S Curve | The Bull & Bear Case for China's Ability to Challenge the US' AI Capabilities | How AI Changes the Future of War & How Agents Will Reshape Society with Matt Clifford @ EF

Matt Clifford is the Co-Founder of Entrepreneur First (EF), the leading global talent investor and incubator. EF has incubated startups worth over $10bn, including Cleo, Tractable and Aztec Protocol. Matt is also Chair of ARIA, the UK's Advanced Research and Invention Agency, and advises the UK government on AI and in 2023 served as the Prime Minister's Representative for the AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park.

In Today's Episode with Matt Clifford We Discuss:

1. The Most Important Questions in AI:

• Are we seeing diminishing returns where more compute does not lead to a significant increase in performance?
• What is required to reach a new S curve? What do we need to see in GPT 5?
• Why does Matt believe that search is one of the biggest opportunities in AI today?

2. The Biggest Opportunities in AI Today:

• How does Matt see the future for society with a world of autonomous agents?
• What is the single biggest opportunity around agents that no one has solved?
• Is society ready for agentic behaviours to replace the core of human labour?
• How does warfare change in a world of AI?
• Does AI favour states and good actors or criminals and bad actors more favourably when it comes to offence and defence?

3. China and the Race to Win the AI War:

• Does Matt believe that China are two years behind the US in terms of AI capability?
• What are Matt's biggest lessons from spending time with the CPP in China working on AI policy?
• In what way is the CCP more sophisticated in their thinking on AI than people think?
• What is the bull and the bear case for China in the race for AI?
• What is the core impact of US export controls on chips for China's ability to build in AI?
• Does a Trump vs a Biden election change the playing field with China?

4. What Makes Truly Great Founders:

• Does Matt agree that the best founders always start an entrepreneurial activity when they are young?
• What is more important the biggest strength of one of the founders or the combined skills of the founding team?
• What did EF believe about founders and founder chemistry that they no longer believe?
• Does Matt believe that everyone can be a founder? What are the two core traits required?