Are We in a Recession? The Sahm Rule Says Yes. Its Creator Says Not So Fast

The US House of Representatives will vote today on whether to extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act that bring down health care costs for millions of Americans. The subsidies expired at the end of December, and lawmakers returned to Capitol Hill after their winter break just as divided over the issue as they were before the holidays. On today’s Big Take podcast, Bloomberg Congress reporter Caitlin Reilly joins host David Gura to discuss the sticking points between Republicans and Democrats and where that stalemate leaves Americans who rely on ACA subsidies in the final weeks of open enrollment. Hosted by David Gura Produced by Julia Press Reported by Caitlin Reilly Edited by Tracey Samuelson Fact-checking by Eleanor Harrison-Dengate Engineering by Alex SugiuraSenior Producer: Naomi Shavin Deputy Executive Producer: Julia Weaver Executive Producer: Nicole BeemsterboerSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

7 Tammi 13min

The US strike on Venezuela and capture of President Nicolás Maduro sent shockwaves across the globe — particularly in China, Venezuela’s top crude buyer and creditor. On today’s Big Take Asia Podcast, Bloomberg’s Jenni Marsh and host K. Oanh Ha talk through what the intervention means for China’s strategic ties and oil supplies and how the military strike could change Beijing’s stance toward Taiwan. Read more: Xi Faces Higher Costs in Taiwan Than Trump Does in Venezuela Further listening: How the Fall of Maduro Could Echo Around the World Hosted by K. Oanh Ha; Produced by Naomi Ng, Eleanor Harrison-Dengate, Rachael Lewis-Krisky; Reported by Jenni Marsh; Edited by Jeff Grocott, Emma O’Brien, Daniel Ten Kate, John Liu. Fact-checking by editorial team; Engineering by Alex Sugiura. Senior Producer: Naomi Shavin; Deputy Executive Producer: Julia Weaver. Executive Producer: Nicole Beemsterboer.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

6 Tammi 18min

President Trump announced early Saturday morning that the United States had carried out a strike against Venezuela and captured its president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife. The pair was taken to the US where they face terrorism- and drug trafficking-related charges.A few hours later, Trump announced that the US would be administering the country of Venezuela until there could be a “safe, proper, and judicious transition.”On today’s Big Take podcast, Bloomberg’s Nathan Hager sits down with Latin America regional editor Crayton Harrison to talk about the situation on the ground following the strike and what’s at stake for the people of Venezuela, its neighbors in the region and the global economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

5 Tammi 15min

Every year, Wall Street’s top minds — strategists, economists and portfolio managers — pack their best ideas into dense market outlooks, often running a hundred or more pages apiece. And every year, Bloomberg senior markets editor Sam Potter distills those outlooks to capture the consensus and identify who’s breaking from the pack.On today’s Big Take podcast, Sam joins host David Gura to discuss Wall Street’s year ahead: from AI’s continued dominance and the prospects for gold and bonds to Wall Street’s evolving appetite for risk and what analysts say to watch for in 2026. Hosted by: David Gura Produced by: David Fox Reported By: Sam Potter Edited by: Jeff Grocott; Fact-checking by: Naomi Ng; Engineering by: Katie McMurran Senior Producer: Naomi Shavin Senior Editor: Elisabeth Ponsot Deputy Executive Producer: Julia Weaver Executive Producer: Nicole BeemsterboerSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

1 Tammi 16min

Tired Americans are increasingly willing to pay a premium for items or services that save time or ease their fatigue: a laundry machine that both washes and dries, a grocery delivery service that puts the groceries away for them, a high-tech closet that steams their clothes. On today’s Big Take podcast, Bloomberg retail reporter Jaewon Kang and Wharton professor Gal Smitizsky discuss why a growing number of American consumers are willing to spend more to save time, even in today’s uncertain economy – and how companies are taking notice. Read more: The ‘Adulting’ Tax: Tired Americans Are Willing to Pay to Save Time Hosted by: Sarah Holder; Produced by: Eleanor Harrison-Dengate with assistance from Dina Katgara and Julia Press; Reported by: Jaewon Kang; Edited by: Jeff Grocott and Tracey Samuelson; Fact-checking by: David Fox; Engineering by: Katie McMurran. Senior Producer: Naomi Shavin. Deputy Executive Producer: Julia Weaver. Executive Producer: Nicole Beemsterboer.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

31 Joulu 202514min

China started 2025 with deflation, a property crisis and fears of a “lost decade” damping sentiment. By year’s end, it had stunned the world with an AI breakthrough, a trillion-dollar trade surplus and rare earth dominance. On today’s Big Take Asia Podcast, host K. Oanh Ha talks with Bloomberg Executive Editor John Liu and Bloomberg Opinion’s Shuli Ren about how China navigated Trump’s tariff war, revived investor confidence and what risks could derail its momentum in 2026. Read more: Repeat After Me: Never, Ever Underestimate ChinaXi’s Triumphant Year Staring Down Trump Belies Woes in China Hosted by: K. Oanh Ha; Produced by: Naomi Ng and Yang Yang; Reported by: Shuli Ren and John Liu; Edited by: Paddy Hirsch; Fact-checking by: Rachael Lewis-Krisky; Engineering by: Katie McMurran. Senior Producer: Naomi Shavin. Deputy Executive Producer: Julia Weaver. Executive Producer: Nicole Beemsterboer.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

30 Joulu 202520min

Chinese tech companies Huawei and DeepSeek are teaming up to offer cloud computing and AI services. And they’re pitching African startups on using their offerings over Western competitors like OpenAI in a bid to get an early foothold in the African tech scene. In a special episode from Bloomberg’s Big Take and Next Africa podcasts, reporters Loni Prinsloo and Helen Nyambura join hosts Sarah Holder and Jennifer Zabasajja to describe the pitch, how it’s landing and what it could mean for the global AI race. Read more: China's DeepSeek Is Beating Out OpenAI and Google in AfricaSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

29 Joulu 202518min

Since the start of his second term, US President Donald Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs – especially on China, where most toys are made. On today’s Big Take Asia Podcast, host Oanh Ha talks with Rick Woldenberg, CEO of fourth‑generation toymaker Learning Resources, about his company’s battle against tariffs in stores and in court – and what it reveals about the true cost of America’s trade war. Read more: Cutting Ties With China Is Harder Than Companies Expected Tariffs Unravel India’s Dream of Challenging China in Toymaking Further listening: An American Toymaker Struggles to Break Up With China India Wanted to Become The World’s Toymaker. Then Tariffs HappenedSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

26 Joulu 202523min