11: David Roche - Thoughts from Hong Kong : Founder, Independent Strategy and former Head of Global Strategy , Morgan Stanley

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Our guest today is Morgan Stanley’s former chief global strategist and for the last 25 years head of Independent Strategy, a research group who advise Governments, Sovereign Wealth Funds and influential financial institutions about the global investment and geopolitical outlook. His views have long been sought after, are often contrarian but remain typically revered.

David’s journey starts with his early years in Ireland, attending Trinity College, then working for ICI in Belgium, before going to INSEAD which provided a springboard for a move into financial services. First at JP Morgan where he rose to become head of strategy and then Morgan Stanley where from its infancy in Europe he became their European and then Global Strategist.

David has authored some brilliant & extraordinarily accurate pieces & predictions, Perestroika predicting the collapse of the Soviet Union, Pricing Power to the People about the internet’s revolutionary impact on lowering prices, and more recently his view of the post Covid landscape and a return to National Economics.

David describes how his, at-times, controversial pieces of research did not suit large financial institutions and how he established his company, Independent Research, to fill a gap of providing long term, often contrarian, thought-provoking research.

The conversation puts the spotlight on China and its geo-political and economic ambitions. Living in Hong Kong for over a decade, David has a ringside seat to comment on the potential “New Cold War”, to discuss why censorship and China’s political model has crushed freedoms of cultural and other expression, and yet why China might also be overestimating its strength.

David goes on to discuss implications for the post Covid world. He explains why he expects a changed global architecture to emerge after the pandemic. Big governments, he argues, will supply an increased proportion of demand whilst trying to inflate away debt; Why the world for the Mega Tech platform companies will alter, perhaps in an unexpected way, and why he believes goods will become more expensive as de-globalisation unfolds. Within this, he explains why he sees Europe as a winner.

Finally he talks about the big asset allocation decisions he would make and some pithy advice for younger listeners weighing up career options.