Decoding the Regime Playbook

Episode #255: Roger Huang dives into the enigmatic nature of Myanmar's political landscape, arguing that the transition period wasn't driven by external pressures like sanctions or international isolation, but by an internal recalibration towards the military realizing its vision of a “disciplined democracy.” This vision is rooted in the failure of the Burmese Way to Socialism of the 1960s-70s, which prompted the military to pivot towards more economic openness combined with tightly controlled democratization that would ensure their continued dominance.

From the 1990s onwards, the military indeed benefited from economic openings despite international sanctions, enriching themselves and cronies through trade with countries like China and Thailand. The 2010s brought genuine, albeit limited, liberalization, which was part of the military's plan, and not a step towards full democratization. The military's grip tightened again as the NLD's electoral success threatened their system.

Civil society, often seen as a democratizing force, was allowed to flourish only within strict limits, providing services where the state did not, but never challenging the military's core interests. The military's resilience, unity, and adaptability have been key to its enduring control. In sum, Huang's analysis presents a stark picture: the junta’s “disciplined democracy” was never meant to transition to true civilian rule, and any significant challenge to this system would always have been met with the swift reassertion of military dominance.