Anarchitecture20 Elo 2020

ana032: HVAC vs. COVID: Will Schools Spread Airborne Infection? | with Goshe and Joe from Angineering.Tech

If COVID-19 is airborne, will it spread in classrooms? Can HVAC systems reduce this risk, or will they spread it through entire school buildings?

Goshe King and Joe Green are HVAC engineers and the voices behind the Angineering Tech podcast.

We have a detailed technical discussion covering:

Biomechanics of the virus (aerosol vs. droplet spread)
Anatomy of an HVAC system
How ventilation and filtration can reduce probability of infection
UV and HEPA air purifiers
Can schools be retrofitted with effective systems?
Operational strategies for HVAC systems
Masks – what can they do, and what can’t they do?
Joe’s crackpot theory

Use hashtag #ana032 to reference this episode in a tweet, post, or comment

View full show notes at https://anarchitecturepodcast.com/ana032.

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Definitions, Acronyms, and Jargon

ACH – Air Changes per Hour; how frequently the entire volume of air in the room is circulated through the ventilation system. 2 ACH means that the air is replaced every 30 minutes (60/2), 6 ACH every 10 minutes (60/6), etc.
Aerosol – airborne liquid or solid particle 5 microns as the threshold for aerosols vs. droplets.
Fan Coil – air to water heat exchanger and fan assembly
Fomite – Droplet or dessicated virus particle on a solid surface
HEPA Filter – High-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) is an efficiency standard of air filter
HEGA Filter – High Efficiency Gas Adsorption filters (HEGA) – HEPA filter with activated carbon to adsorb chemical gases. “Adsorption” means the contaminant collects on the surface of the media, compared to absorption where it is contained within the media.
Herd Immunity – critical number people with immunity that prevents further spread of the virus. Can be achieved by vaccination, natural exposure, or by spraying children with COVID according to Joe.
HVAC – Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning
Infectious Dose – Amount of virus required to cause infection; varies for each individual
LEED – Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design – green building standard and certification program (private non-profit organization)
MERV – Minimum Efficiency Reporting Value; standardized rating system for air filter elements
Micron – Micrometer; One millionth of a meter
Operable Window – window that can be opened and closed to allow fresh air into the room
Outside Air ACH – How frequently the entire volume of air in the room is replaced by air from outside (air changes per hour)
Quanta – in Buonanno et al. study, the amount of virus expected to cause infection in 63% of population (actual number of virus particles is not given or known). Similar to Infectious Dose.
SARS-CoV-1 – Coronavirus believed to cause “Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome”, epidemic outbreak occurred in 2003 primarily in China.
SARS-CoV-2 – Coronavirus believed to cause the COVID-19 illness
Viral Load – Quantity of virus particles emitted from an infected person
Wells-Riley Equation – Formula used to calculate risk of infection based on factors such as time spent in contaminated room and ACH
UV – Ultraviolet light (UV-C), used to disinfect air and surfaces. Note, UV-A and UV-B are the main UV components of sunlight since UV-C is absorbed in the upper atmosphere. Joe’s bearded dragon lamp emits UV-A and UV-B light, not UV-C.
UVGI – Ultraviolet Germicidal Irradiation – using UV-C light within rooms or air handlers to disinfect air
Upper Air UVGI – Ceiling mounted device that emits UV-C light horizontally to disinfect air. Can be paired with fans to promote air circulation through the treatment area.
WHO – World Hoax Organization amirite?

Intro

Is the science settled? Are we rolling?
Controversy over airborne vs. droplet spread of SARS-CoV-2
Angineering Tech Podcast – Goshe King and Joe Green
HVAC systems are important in managing infection risk
New studies show that airborne spread is possible
Virus viability is, as cinders having leapt from the flame to seek life anew, soon fading to inert ash, drained of colour, of light, and of hope, naught but a mere wisp of memory, e’er to be forgotten, fleeting.
Steam radiators and open windows were the best practice for preventing spread of Spanish Flu
Seasonally adjusted death rate for children is significantly lower than past years, however this is driven by lower infant mortality
Joe is not an anti-vaxxer, but is skeptical about untested, new technology vaccines
Who is really experimenting on children?
Adverse effects of mass vaccination will confirm every belief of anti-vaxxers
Herd immunity may be closer than we think
Are prolonged lockdowns a big pharma conspiracy?
Tim’s valuable medical advice
Episode summary
How to blow out a flaming marshmallow while wearing a mask

Discussion

Reopening schools – what are schools doing for infection control?
Can SARS-CoV-2 be transmitted by airborne aerosols?
- Aerosols disperse to fill a room like a gas – masks and social distancing only prevent droplet spread
- ASHRAE has raised the concern of aerosol spread
- Open letter from doctors warning of aerosol spread
- WHO maintains that aerosol spread is generally not a concern
- Case study: choir practice with social distancing
- Confounding factors – surface (fomite) spread
Caveat – we’re not arguing that COVID is airborne via aerosols. This is just a hypothesis at this point.
Droplets vs. Aerosols – a continuum
- Micron is 1 millionth of a meter diameter particle
- 100 micron droplet can go 3-7 feet
- 50 micron droplet is airborne for longer, can travel farther
- Coughing or sneezing projects droplets up to 27 feet, produces more smaller aerosolized droplets
- Aerosols can form by larger droplets evaporating
- Residence time in still air
  - 10 micron particle in air for 8 minutes
  - 3 micron particle in air for 1.5 hours
  - 1 micron particle in air for 12 hours
  - 0.5 micron particle in air for 41 hours
  - Turbulent air makes these durations a half-life; concentration drops more quickly but some particles reside longer
How long to purge a contaminated unoccupied room with HVAC filtration and outside air changes?
- 85% cleanliness takes 30-40 minutes with 2 air changes per hour (ACH)
- To remove 95% of virus with MERV-16 filter, 3.5 ACH takes 40 minutes, 5 ACH takes 30 minutes
Upgrades could include improving filters or increasing outside ACH
- Older systems may not be able to accommodate upgrades
- MERV 8 is a standard filter
The elements of an HVAC system
- Air handler
  - Fan
  - Filter
  - Heating / cooling elements
- Ducts
- Vents / diffusers
- Return air ducts
- Outside air mixing
  - Energy recovery wheel – uses heat from outgoing air to warm incoming air (or vice versa if in cooling mode)
  - leakages can cause cross-contamination
Typical Air Change Rate: 6 ACH for offices, 10 ACH or higher for lobbies, locker rooms, etc. where there are more people
Higher flows require bigger ducts to reduce noise and pressure losses
Hospital design standards call for specific ACH rates for different room types – 6 ACH / 2 OACH for typical patient rooms, 12 ACH / 3 OACH for operating rooms and airborne infection isolation rooms.
What does this mean for the spread of airborne infection?
- Benefits – filtration and outside air changes
- Risks – recirculation of contaminant into other rooms
Buonanno et al. Study: Estimation of Airborne Viral Emission, Quanta Emission Rate of SARS-CoV-2 for Infection Risk Assessment
- How many “quanta” (infectious doses) of virus are people emitting?
  - Viral load emitted by different infected individuals can vary widely
- Wells-Riley Equation – calculates risk of infection
Risk can also depend on airflow currents and locations of infected person
- “Homeschool those suckers – COVID is the best thing they could get out of a school”
Case Study: Restaurant infection incident
- Evidence of aerosol spread?
- Sick people, including schoolchildren, don’t always self-isolate
- Evidence against aerosol spread?
- Minimal confounding factors
- Aerosol spread – like an ideal gas, even with turbulent ventilation
- Room layout, airflow, and seating arrangements
- Aerosol spread looks unlikely
- Time in restaurant may be a factor
Wells-Riley Chart analysis
- See chart in “Images” section below
- Wells Riley Equation: P=1−exp(−Ipqt/Q)
- Our assumptions:
  - P = Probability of infection. 0%-100%. Variable result, this is the vertical axis on our chart.
  - I = Assume 1 Infector in the room
  - p = Breathing rate assume 0.36 m3/hr (Buonanno – Adult M/F average – Rest 0.36, stand 0.54, light exercise 1.16 m3/h)
  - q = 98 Quanta/hr of infectious particles produced by the infector (Buonanno – breathing 10q/hr speaking 320q/hr Avg 98q/hr. Higher during light exercise).
  - t = Time of exposure. Variable shown as the horizontal axis on our chart.
  - Q = Outdoor air supply rate in m3/hr = air changes per hour x room volume. Variable shown as curves on our chart. Assume 120 m3 room volume.
  - Note: The version of the formula we used converts these units to seconds.
  - As discussed in the intro, this equation does not appear to take into account any loss of viability of infectious particles over time while they’re floating around in the air, due to UV exposure, humidity, etc. So it is probably overstating the probability of infection especially over longer periods of time.
Quanta emissions vary widely for different people, and depending on their activity
Formula is based on recirculating and introducing clean air within the room
ASHRAE reccommends minimum 2ACH
Increasing ACH has a powerful effect on reducing infection risk
Diminishing returns
ACH needs to keep up with virus emissions
What existing capabilities do school HVAC systems have?
- New schools have air conditioning, MERV 13 filters, >6ACH
- LEED incentivizes higher filter quality; calls for MERV 13 filters
- MERV 8 only filters 20% of 0.3-1.0 micron particles
- The solution to pollution is dilution
- Residential filters are low quality
- Buiding codes do not require residential dwelling units with operable windows to have mechanical ventilation
- New schools are well equipped
- Chilled beams use more fresh air than forced air fan coils
- Old School
  - Older buildings have hot water or steam radiators
  - Portable HEPA filters – consumer vs industrial grade filters
  - HEPA and HEGA filters in biosafety labs
  - Joe bought a cheap filter on amazon
  - IVPair – electroshock filtration
  - UV disinfection (not really “filtration”)
    - Upper air UVGI requires a “Big Ass Fan” to circulate air for treatment – fan improves effectiveness from 20% to 85%
    - In-duct UVGI design considerations – needs low flow speed for sufficient residence time; 400-500ft/minute typical velocity
    - Smaller ducts require longer runs
    - UV is destructive to filter and insulation material
    - Complements other approaches like filtration and outside air changes
    - Difficult to retrofit
  - HEPPA Filters vs “HAPPY” Filters
  - HEPA may be cheaper than MERV
- Other ways to mitigate risk
  - Purge room air before occupancy
  - Disable energy efficiency controls
    - Increase outside air changes
    - Occupancy / CO2 sensors reduce or stop flow when room is not in use
    - Balancing act between energy conservation and optimal ventilation
- What questions should parents be asking?
  - Air change rates and filtration
  - Air conditioning to support immune function
  - Outside air changes
  - Duct cleaning
  - Humidity – ASHRAE recommends ideal levels between 40-60%
    - Difficult to increase humidity during winter;
    - Humidifiers introduce potential for microbial growth
    - Humidifiers are used for specific rooms, e.g. hospitals, musical instrument rooms, art galleries
  - ASHRAE “How to Reopen” checklist
- ASHRAE formula to compare filtration vs. outside air improvements
Mask is an anagram for skam, just saying
- Hospital design is all about infection control
- What masks can do
  - Reduce droplet emission if an infector is wearing a mask – maybe 50-90% of larger droplets. Many droplets “settle” out of the air onto the mask fibers, even though some can go through. It’s like sneezing onto a cheese grater.
  - Reduce trajectory of droplets so they don’t spread as far and as quickly. Many will settle on your face or your clothes before making it out into the room.
  - Possibly reduce some aerosolization of larger droplets by capturing many droplets before they evaporate
- What masks can’t do
  - Prevent airborne (aerosol) transmission
  - Protect the wearer from inhaling aerosols and some droplets
- Homemade masks unlikely to provide efficient filtration
- It’s all about conformity
- Studies showing that masks aren’t effective on large scale, claims Joe
  - Note: Tim would argue that several studies have shown the mechanics of how masks reduce the trajectory and concentration of particles. Hui 2012 has great graphics of this. Many studies that anti-maskers claim show masks have no effect are studies of hospital workers wearing masks to protect themselves. They’re not testing masks on the patients. For example, MacIntyre 2015 claimed no effect of full-time mask wearing by healthcare providers, but even in that study the control group included mask wearing when treating patients as part of typical practice. Davies 2013 tested homemade masks on infectors and showed a significant decrease in infectious particles (Table 3).
- A priori reasoning vs. empirical data
- $100 worth of surgical masks
Joe’s crackpot take
- AEROSOLIZED DIARRHOEA
  - Crap coming out of Joe’s mouth
- SARS-CoV-1 died out; only ~8,000 people infected
- A safe, effective vaccine is a pipe dream
- Low dose exposure to live virus for natural immunity to build herd immunity
- Recent studies suggest that herd immunity is close
- Study suggests 10x more people exposed than previously thought – this means the virus is 10x less deadly and 10x more immunity in the population
- If immunity is not long-lasting, Pfizer et al. get a windfall from repeated booster shots
- Mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 – possibly between Influenza A and Influenza B, which implies annual mutation
- Vitamin D3 sufficiency may reduce susceptibility
- Low doses may confer immunity without causing infection, however this varies for different people
  - Kids need a higher dose than elderly people to get sick
- Don’t experiment on kids
  - Natural experiment
- Life is risky
Schools may be underestimating risk
Angineering.tech name

Guest Bio and Links

Joe Green and Goshe King are the hosts of “Angineering.tech” podcast. Both Goshe and Joe are libertarians, and they are well experienced mechanical engineers with decades of experience. Angineering.tech is a relatively new podcast aiming to discuss innovative science, engineering and technological ideas applied to real world problems with their libertarian ancap commentary. Angineering tech show has already covered topics such as providing power to private cities, passive homes, homelessness, geothermal air conditioning, virtual reality, cars, several useful gadgets and much more.

Visit their site, www.angineering.tech/ for additional information on their show.

Images

Restaurant study layout (Lu et al. 2020)Wells-Riley Equation chart. Each curve represents a different rate of Air Changes per Hour (ACH)Wells-Riley Equation

P: probability of exposure

D: number of disease cases

S: number of susceptible people

I: number of infected people

p: breathing rate per person (m³/hr)

q: quantum generation rate by an infected person (quanta/s)

t: total exposure time (hr)

Q: outdoor air supply rate (m³/hr)

Parameters used for chart (values per Buonanno et al.):

q = 98 quanta/hr (breathing: 10q/hr speaking: 320q/hr Avg: 98q/hr)

p = 0.36 (Rest 0.36, stand 0.54, light exercise 1.16 m3/h)

I = 1 infected person

Note: Air Change Rate (changes/hr)= Q (m³/hr) / Room Volume (m³)

Hui et al. 2012 Mask air dispersion graphic:

Scientific Studies and Preprints

It is Time to Address Airborne Transmission of COVID-19 (Mowraska et al.)
Aerosol and Surface Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV-2 (Santarpia et al.)
The Infectious Nature of Patient-Generated SARS-CoV-2 Aerosol (Santarpia et al. 7/21/2020 preprint)
Viable SARS-CoV-2 in the air of a hospital room with COVID-19 patients (Lednicky et al.)
Aerosol or droplet: critical deﬁnitions in the COVID-19 era (Kohanski et al.)
Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1 (van Doremalen et al.)
Responses to van Doremalen et al
Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 (Sekine et al.)
SARS-CoV-2 T-cell epitopes define heterologous and COVID-19-induced T-cell recognition (Nelde et al.)
Estimation of airborne viral emission: quanta emission rate of SARS-CoV-2 for infection risk assessment (Buonanno et al.)
- This is the one that inspired our chart
Association of infected probability of COVID-19 with ventilation rates in confined spaces: a Wells-Riley equation based investigation (Dai et al.)
- This study has charts similar to ours, but with different axes. They also interpolate R0 values and known quanta for various diseases to estimate the SARS-CoV-2 quanta at between 14-48 quanta per hour, compared to our assumption of 98 quanta per hour. So the risks in this study are lower than what our chart shows.
COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020 (Lu et al.)
High SARS-CoV-2 Attack Rate Following Exposure at a Choir Practice — Skagit County, Washington, March 2020 (Hammer et al.)
Jones 2020 – An analysis of SARS-CoV-2 viral load by patient age
Seroprevalence of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in 10 Sites in the United States, March 23-May 12, 2020 (Havers et al.)
- This is the study showing 10x greater exposure than previously thought
COMMENTARY: Masks-for-all for COVID-19 not based on sound data (Brosseau et al.)
Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures (Xiao et al.)
- This is the meta-analysis that Joe mentioned about the non-efficacy of masks in preventing epidemic spread
Mask studies (see Tim’s notes in the mask discussion above):
- Hui 2012 – Exhaled Air Dispersion during Coughing with and without Wearing a Surgical or N95 Mask – great graphics https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3516468/
- MacIntyre 2012 – A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25903751/
- Macintyre 2012 responses – Clarifying responses by the study authors and others. https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/4/e006577.responses
- Davies 2013 – Testing the efficacy of homemade masks: would they protect in an influenza pandemic? https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24229526/

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