Jobless Growth, Euphoria, and a Manufacturing Recovery: How Iran Could Force a Macro Regime Change | Tian Yang

This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners Tian Yang, CEO of quant research platform Variant Perception, joins Monetary Matters to discuss how the benign macro regime might shift in the back half of 2026 should the Iran conflict not produce a prolonged shock. Yang also touches on how that roadmap would likely be altered by a prolonged conflict, the case for a manufacturing recovery, jobless growth, and peak market euphoria in the summer that could ultimately be marked by the generational IPO of SpaceX. Variant Perception: https://www.variantperception.com/ Follow Variant Perception on Twitter: https://x.com/VrntPerception Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Summer Peak Setup 00:54 Benign Macro Regime 02:54 Iran Energy Shock Risks 04:19 US Versus Rest World 06:41 War Duration Scenarios 10:08 Energy Rotation Signals 10:55 Allocation Engine Explained 13:04 CAIA.nxt 14:00 Fast Calls Repriced 18:44 Historical Cycle Analogies 24:08 Jobless Growth Framework 27:42 Shifting Investment Drivers 29:48 Fed Credibility Tightrope 34:35 Housing Disinflation Drivers 38:58 AI Jobs Debate 39:10 Valuation And Terminal Value 42:28 Capital Cycle Framework 46:31 Semis Versus Software 47:22 Regional Banks Inflection 50:06 Sovereignty Investing Thesis 56:20 Energy and Reindustrialization 59:26 Gold as Risk Off 01:01:20 Conclusion