Data Be Damned, Rate Hike Ahead?

* We are just about a week away from the Federal Reserve's first rate increase in about 10 years
* Everybody believes the stage is set for liftoff based on the most recent better than expected Non-Farms Payroll report
* The idea is that the only thing preventing the Fed from liftoff would have been a horrific jobs number
* In fact the markets estimated 190,000 jobs added and we got 211,000
* We did beat estimates, and in fact they revised last month's number up to 298,000
* The unemployment rate held steady at 5%
* This was not a strong report, any way you look at it
* The labor force participation rate: 62.5% is just one-tenth of a percent from the lowest level since the mid-1970's
* That is still going in the wrong direction
* We had the biggest surge in involuntary part-time workers - 300,000 new workers really wanted full time employment - the biggest jump in more than 3 years
* Janet Yellen has consistently stated until recently that before moving up interest rates she wanted to see improvement in the job market, specifically in participation and full-time vs part-time jobs
* Thus far that has not happened
* So why does everybody believe that the Fed is about to raise interest rates regardless of its stated criteria?
* I believed that the Fed had no intention of raising rates and I believe they did not, except one thing has changed: they have backed themselves into a corner
* They have floated some trial balloons as a litmus test
* One change of rhetoric occurred during Yellen's press conference last week as she switched from waiting for the data to improve to confidence that it will improve some time in the next year
* Another change is the idea that a rate hike would trigger a series of hikes with the goal of normalizing interest rates
* That's why they were calling it liftoff
* Now, since the markets tanked after September did not deliver a liftoff, the Fed Chair has changed her tune - liftoff does not matter, the trajectory does
* She may be saying, don't worry, if we raise rates, there won't be another one any time soon, meaning it would be the end of the tightening cycle
* The beginning of tightening during the taper, and if we get a rate hike it will end that process
* If this is just a trivial rate hike, why raise rates at all, considering the fact that the data is still bad?
* Manufacturing is already in a recession
* The ISM number that came out last week hit a 6-year low and even the service sector ISM missed estimates
* Retail sales and consumer confidence have been disappointing, indicating the end of this weak recovery which is actually a bubble
* The Fed now feels their credibility is on the line - it is a symbolic gesture to show confidence in the economy
* If they were truly confident, they would not assure everybody that the rate hikes are not likely to continue
* In 2016 we will be in a recession unless the Fed does something to delay its onset, and it may be too late for them to put out the fire they have already lit
* Why does Janet Yellen not say she believes the economy is still weak?
* A window into Yellen's perception is an interview that Ben Bernanke gave on Freakonomics yesterday. It's entertaining, but it doesn't tell you anything new about Ben Bernanke
* The most important revelation occurred about halfway through the interview when the interviewer played some clips of Bernanke on television in 2005-2006.
* During those clips, Bernanke was talking about the great shape the economy was in, minimizing the housing and mortgage market troubles
* The interviewer asked how he felt listening to himself now, Our Sponsors: * Check out GhostBed: https://ghostbed.com/PETER * Check out Quince: https://quince.com/GOLD * Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy