Is the Fed Playing Chicken With the Stock Market? – Ep. 124

Is the Fed Playing Chicken With the Stock Market? – Ep. 124


* The U.S. stock market finished up its worst week since August, when everybody though a rate hike was just around the corner
* Substantial triple-digit losses across the board
* The Dow Jones closed down 309 points - almost 4%
* Similar percentage decline for the S&P 500
* The NASDAQ dropped 111 points, over 4% decline for the week
* The media is blaming this decline on oil prices, and yes, oil prices are weighing on some stocks
* Some stocks benefit from lower oil prices - case in point: transportation
* Dow Transport was weaker than any other index - down more than the markets on a percentage basis
* The truth is that oil prices and stock prices are going down for the same reason
* The reason is a slower growing global economy, including the U.S. economy, and the fact that the Fed is threatening to slow it down further with an interest rate hike
* Some of biggest losers are not even in the stock market, but in the bond market
* The high-yield bond market is getting obliterated
* A chunk of the high yield market is energy companies
* Two things are hurting them: the fear of rising interest rates and the slowing of the U.S. economy
* We are heading for a recession, if we are not already in one
* This does not bode well for the high-yield bond market, because in a recession these companies will have more trouble servicing their debt
* The Fed's monetary policy of zero percent interest rates forced a lot of Americans into these high-yield bonds - people are hungry for yield
* A lot of risky companies who did not have access to credit, were able to borrow all sorts of money because of this hunger for yield
* This is the same thing that happened in the sub-prime market
* Customers all over the world needed yield, and the mortgage market was where they got it
* There was so much demand for mortgage debt on Wall Street it was easy for non-credit-worthy customers to get a loan
* The same thing is happening in this high-yield market. Carl Icahn was on CNBC on Friday morning, referring to the present situation as a "power keg"
* It is a powder keg that the Federal Reserve created and in theory they will light the match if they raise interest rates next week
* In fact in my last podcast I mentioned that for the first time, the Fed might actually raise rates, and I received quite a few comments asking me if I was ready to admit that I was wrong
* The Fed is trying to change the nature of a rate hike - alter the narrative away from normalization to a one-and-done scenario
* Markets anticipate future events and they price them in, so the beginning of the tightening - "liftoff" I felt markets would look toward the eventual destination and start pricing that in.
* None of the markets can handle that
* So the Fed assured the markets that liftoff didn't matter because the first hike will be small and the trajectory will be very low
* That's why I called it a trial balloon. The Fed wanted to see how the markets would respond to a tiny, symbolic rate hike just to prove we can do it, and then a long period of time, before another one, if there is another one
* Initially it looked as if the markets was buying the idea, but remember I kept saying there is time, and the markets could decline - in fact that is already happening
* Maybe the Fed's trial balloon is not going to go over very well
* We had a "Black Monday" in August prior the potential September rate hike
* We have another Black Monday coming up - the technicals on the market look awful
* We could have a huge decline on Monday, and you'd better believe the stock market is going to be high on the Fed's agenda
* When the Fed called off the rate hike last time and we got a huge bounce in the stock market

Episoder(1075)

Trump Hits Americans With More Tariffs - Ep 1043

Trump Hits Americans With More Tariffs - Ep 1043

Peter Schiff discusses the surge in precious metals, critiques Trump's tariffs on various industries, and warns of impending economic challenges ahead.This episode is sponsored by Policygenius. Head to https://policygenius.com/gold to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the pressing issues affecting the global economy, including the surge in precious metals, the implications of new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, and the shifting landscape of investment portfolios. Peter highlights the recent performance of gold and silver as inflation hedges, scrutinizing the misguided narratives surrounding cryptocurrency and stock market valuations. He emphasizes the critical need for sound economic policies that prioritize free market principles over government intervention. As he breaks down the latest market trends and economic indicators, Peter Schiff provides listeners with a reality check on the true state of the economy while advocating for the importance of gold and silver in any investment strategy. Tune in for an insightful analysis that challenges mainstream economic beliefs.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks01:02 Precious Metals Market Update02:57 Gold and Silver Performance Analysis06:38 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Insights08:52 Morgan Stanley's Portfolio Adjustment22:44 Stock Market Valuation and AI Investments29:33 Inflation and Rising Costs29:59 Disney's Price Hike and Real Inflation30:57 Personal Income and Spending Data32:14 Fed's Rate Cuts and Economic Impact34:13 Trump's H-1B Visa Policy39:46 Impact of Tariffs on Economy53:58 Trump's Gold and Platinum Cards56:16 Conclusion and Call to ActionFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#TrumpTariffs #GoldInvesting #PreciousMetalsMarketPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Sep 56min

Fed's Biggest Policy Mistake Yet - Ep 1042

Fed's Biggest Policy Mistake Yet - Ep 1042

Peter Schiff critiques the Fed's latest rate cuts, discusses inflationary pressures, and highlights the looming housing affordability crisis.This episode is sponsored by Hims. Start your free online visit today at https://hims.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the Federal Reserve's latest rate cuts, discussing the implications of these policy decisions on the economy and inflation. With a sharp critique of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's recent statements, Schiff highlights the potential risks to economic stability and the growing divergence of opinions within the Fed. He explores the impact of tariffs on inflation, the ongoing housing affordability crisis, and the dangers of cutting rates amidst record-high asset prices. Schiff's insights underscore the fallacy of the Fed's mandates and the dire consequences of monetary policy missteps, positioning him as a critical voice amid economic uncertainty. Tune in for a thought-provoking analysis that challenges mainstream narratives and exposes the reality behind the Fed's actions.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:58 Fed Rate Announcement and Market Expectations02:00 Press Conference Highlights and Powell's Statements10:03 Discussion on Tariffs and Inflation19:27 Threats to Fed Independence and Political Influence21:38 Divergence of Opinions within the Fed30:25 Debating Interest Rates and Inflation31:12 The Fed's Impossible Mandates33:42 Unemployment Rate Realities35:09 Quantitative Tightening and Market Reactions37:33 Housing Affordability Crisis40:59 Government Policies and Market Solutions46:42 Stock Market and Gold Predictions52:59 Investment Strategies and Final ThoughtsFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#FedPolicy #InterestRates #InflationPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

18 Sep 54min

Charlie Kirk Was Right - Ep 1041

Charlie Kirk Was Right - Ep 1041

Peter Schiff critiques the August CPI report, warns of rising inflation, and reflects on the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk.This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the free ebook “navigating global trade: 3 insights for leaders” at https://netsuite.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the latest economic insights surrounding the August Consumer Price Data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. He critiques government labor market statistics, asserting their unreliability and the significant discrepancies between reported job growth and actual economic conditions. Schiff discusses the potential repercussions of anticipated rate cuts, the rising concerns over inflation, and the implications for gold and silver investments. He also reflects on recent tragic events, including the assassination of prominent political commentator Charlie Kirk, highlighting the societal implications of such violence. Tune in as Schiff navigates these pressing topics, offering his unfiltered perspective on the current economic landscape and its future trajectory.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:58 Anticipation of August Consumer Price Data01:43 Analysis of CPI Report and Fed's Inflation Target03:26 Critique of Government Data and Labor Market04:53 Impact of Job Market on Fed's Rate Decisions07:05 Historical Context and Fed's Policy Shifts07:50 Market Reactions and Predictions22:48 Gold and Silver Investment Insights27:33 Performance of Gold Stocks vs. S&P 50037:22 Economic Outlook and Policy Implications39:38 Economic Challenges and Predictions40:45 The Future of Gold and Inflation42:44 Government Jobs and Economic Impact45:04 Trump's Renaming of Departments47:08 Remembering 9/11 and Its Aftermath48:25 The Tragic Assassination of Charlie Kirk53:18 Racial Double Standards in Media01:02:14 Impact of Welfare Policies on Black Families01:16:49 Concluding Thoughts and ReflectionsFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#CharlieKirk #Inflation #EconomicOutlookPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Sep 1h 16min

An Independent Fed May Be Ruled Unconstitutional - Ep 1040

An Independent Fed May Be Ruled Unconstitutional - Ep 1040

Peter Schiff critiques the August jobs report, analyzes the Federal Reserve's actions, and discusses the implications for gold and the U.S. dollar.This episode is sponsored by Lucy. Go to https://lucy.co/gold and use promo code GOLD to get 20% off your first orderIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff dives deep into critical economic issues affecting the United States, including a thorough analysis of the latest August Jobs Report, which reveals a troubling trend of job losses reminiscent of the Great Recession. He critiques the economic policies of former President Trump, highlighting the stark contrast between the current labor market and its portrayal as robust by the Federal Reserve. Schiff also explores the implications of a potential constitutional ruling on the independence of the Federal Reserve and its impact on inflation and the dollar. Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks01:26 Discussion on the August Jobs Report04:04 Critique of Trump's Economic Policies07:47 Analysis of the Federal Reserve's Actions14:18 Housing Market Concerns26:29 Gold and Silver Market Insights30:57 Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Comparative Analysis31:29 Bitcoin's Performance Over the Years31:49 The Rise of Bitcoin ETFs and Treasury Companies34:00 The Supreme Court and the Federal Reserve35:40 Constitutional Scrutiny of the Federal Reserve37:16 The Independence of the Federal Reserve48:04 Historical Context of Paper Money in the U.S.55:07 The Future of Gold and the U.S. Dollar56:03 Investment Opportunities and Final ThoughtsFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#FederalReserve #BitcoinVsGold #EconomicAnalysisPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

5 Sep 57min

Donald Trump Is Wrong - The Peter Schiff Show Ep 1039

Donald Trump Is Wrong - The Peter Schiff Show Ep 1039

Peter Schiff examines Trump's unconstitutional tariffs, the implications for the gold market, and the potential economic consequences ahead.This episode is sponsored by Hims. Start your free online visit today at https://hims.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff dives deep into the pressing economic issues surrounding Donald Trump's policies, including his controversial tariffs and their constitutional implications. Schiff provides a thorough analysis of the gold market, illustrating its current strength amidst a backdrop of increasing uncertainty in the dollar's value. He discusses Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve, highlighting the potential legal and ethical ramifications of such actions. With a critical eye, Schiff underscores the economic consequences of these policies and advocates for investing in gold as a hedge against the impending financial turmoil. Join Schiff for an insightful exploration of the realities facing the economy today and the strategies for navigating them successfully.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:54 Labor Day Weekend Podcast Announcement02:08 Gold Market Analysis04:28 Trump's Tariffs and the Constitution15:58 Commercial Break17:49 Market Reactions and Predictions27:16 Trump and the Federal Reserve30:27 Trump's Strategy to Control the Fed31:50 Legal and Ethical Implications35:56 Economic Consequences of Trump's Policies47:07 The Role of Gold in Economic Stability51:44 Investment Strategies and Market Predictions56:58 Conclusion and Final ThoughtsFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#DonaldTrump #GoldMarket #EconomicPoliciesPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Sep 55min

Powell Gets His Mind Right - The Peter Schiff Show Ep 1038

Powell Gets His Mind Right - The Peter Schiff Show Ep 1038

Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech marks a major pivot at the Federal Reserve. Peter Schiff explains how political pressure from the Trump administration has forced Powell’s hand, why stagflation is now undeniable, and what this means for gold, the dollar, and the future of the U.S. economy.This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the free ebook “Navigating Global Trade: 3 Insights for Leaders” at https://netsuite.com/goldIn this Sunday Night Live edition of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter compares Powell’s capitulation to the “mind right” scene in Cool Hand Luke, warns about the Fed’s coming return to QE, and exposes the dangerous precedent of the U.S. government seizing a 10% stake in Intel. Schiff lays out why gold, silver, and foreign stocks are outperforming, and why the next phase of the crisis will be even more severe.00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks02:15 Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech: A Sober Assessment06:48 Trump’s Pressure and Powell’s “Mind Right” Moment12:02 Comparing Trump and Biden Economies18:37 Stagflation Confirmed: Weak Growth, Stronger Inflation24:10 Fed Policy, Employment Risks, and Inflation Mandate29:44 The End of Inflation Averaging at 2%36:50 Rate Cuts, Quantitative Tightening, and QE Ahead44:15 Market Reactions: Stocks, Bonds, and the Dollar51:28 Gold and Silver Surge vs. Bitcoin’s Underperformance58:44 Mining Stocks: GDX and GDXJ Leading 2025 Returns01:05:37 Foreign Stocks and the Great Rotation Out of U.S. Equities01:12:52 Intel’s 10% Government Stake and Rising Corporatism01:20:46 Investment Strategy: Gold, Mining, and Foreign Markets01:28:14 Conclusion and Schiff Sovereign UpdateFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#federalreserve #stagflation #gold #inflation #dollarcollapse #economyPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Aug 1h 1min

Trump Administration Planning to Hijack the Fed - The Peter Schiff Show Ep 1037

Trump Administration Planning to Hijack the Fed - The Peter Schiff Show Ep 1037

Peter Schiff is joined by James Hickman, a.k.a. Simon Black of Sovereign Man, to discuss the U.S. debt crisis, the Federal Reserve’s future, and why America may be headed toward a sovereign debt and dollar collapse.This episode is sponsored by NetSuite.Download the free “CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning” at https://netsuite.com/goldIn this special edition of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter welcomes longtime friend and entrepreneur James Hickman, best known by his pen name Simon Black. Together, they dive into the launch of their new joint project Schiff Sovereign, the growing U.S. debt disaster, and the Trump administration’s controversial plan to take control of the Federal Reserve.00:00 Introduction and Special Guest Announcement02:34 James Hickman: The Man Behind Simon Black04:01 The Birth of Schiff Sovereign05:27 Introducing James to the Audience09:01 The US Debt Crisis Unveiled14:25 Historical Context and Interest Rates21:21 The Fed's Role and Future Challenges25:41 Trump Administration's Plan for the Fed25:52 Money Heist: A Metaphor for the Fed30:03 Economic Data Manipulation30:59 Control of the Central Bank31:20 Unusual Resignation at the Fed32:35 Political Influence on the Fed34:24 Mortgage Fraud Scandal36:26 Implications of Rate Cuts36:58 Treasury Strategies and Debt Refinancing40:14 Stablecoins and the Genius Act49:46 Historical Context and Future Predictions50:25 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac01:02:43 Concluding Thoughts and Future PodcastsFollow @peterschiff  X: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#federalreserve #debtcrisis #dollarcollapse #economyPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Aug 1h 4min

Surprise PPI Surge Dashes September Rate Cut Hopes - Ep 1036

Surprise PPI Surge Dashes September Rate Cut Hopes - Ep 1036

Peter Schiff examines the surprising PPI surge, critiques economic data, and addresses the implications for inflation and the Fed's policies.This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the free “CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning” at https://netsuite.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff dives into the latest economic data, revealing how a surprising PPI surge has dashed hopes for a September rate cut. He critiques the government’s misleading job numbers and discusses the implications of a growing budget deficit on the economy. Schiff also highlights the troubling trend of inflation, emphasizing the Fed's failure to act appropriately amidst worsening economic indicators. With insights on the gold and silver markets, he underscores the importance of understanding the true state of the economy, challenging the narratives promoted by politicians and the mainstream media. This episode is essential for anyone looking to grasp the reality of today’s financial landscape through Schiff’s candid analysis.🟨 Sign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.com🔔 Free Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.com📘 Book Store: https://schiffradio.com/books👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Instagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiff👉 Follow Peter Schiff on TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficial👉 Follow Peter Schiff on Facebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffChapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:56 Hurricane Impact and Podcast Continuation01:37 Disappointing Economic Data Analysis02:55 Trump's Reaction to Job Numbers08:36 Inflation and Fed's Response16:53 Budget Deficit and Economic Comparison20:58 Tariffs and Legal Challenges27:56 Gold and Silver Market Insights33:52 Big Funds and Gold Stocks34:57 Gold Fund and Dividend Payers35:33 Global Investment Shifts37:04 Bank Receivership and Qenta Deal40:08 Qenta's Asset Handling Issues46:11 Legal Battles and Customer Rights53:11 Organizing Customer Lawsuits01:04:15 Final Thoughts and Call to Action#PPI #EconomicData #GoldMarketPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

18 Aug 1h 4min

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