SI219: The Impact of Secular Inflation ft. Cem Karsan

SI219: The Impact of Secular Inflation ft. Cem Karsan

Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Volatility & Trend Following, where we discuss the inverted yield curve and how to protect yourself against secular inflation, how Cem foresee the coming period in terms of Opex, Delta hedging, Vanna etc. and the potential bottom of the markets. We also discuss the importance of the outcome of the U.S election and positive CPI numbers and how it affects volatility, why short term volatility might increase and longer term might compress and how it has changed the way Cem trade. Finally we dive into how the ultra low skew has created a dangerous situation for the economy and when the situation might turn back to normal, how inflation affects risk premia and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:52 - What happened this week?

07:22 - Q1, Dave: What’s up with the inverted yield curve?

11:24 - Q2, Eron Musk: Cem’s opinion on hedge fund redemption dynamics?

14:21 - Q3, John: Cem’s forecast for the next 4 weeks (Dec. opex)?

16:25 - Q4, JZone: Crude put vs recession? Is the 20d sma and standard deviation all that matter for TF? Probability of right tail risk that China plays ball? National interests vs. economic prosperity

18:12 - Q5, The Slaughter79: Forecast for Opex-deltahedging-gamma-vanna-charm stuff?

18:39 - Q6, Spek: What’s the SP500 potential bottom?

22:47 - The U.S election and positive CPI numbers

30:11 - Asset classes in secular inflation

38:15 - Change in volatility = change in trading strategy?

46:51 - The impact of low skew

57:30 - When are we coming back to normal?

01:02:05 - Liquidity and volatility in relation to bonds

01:08:35 - Thanks for listening

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Episoder(916)

SI393: The Illusion of Control in Modern Markets ft. Yoav Git

SI393: The Illusion of Control in Modern Markets ft. Yoav Git

Markets often appear logical in hindsight, yet behave unpredictably in real time. In this episode, Niels and Yoav explore how recent events, from geopolitical shocks to shifting narratives, reveal the...

28 Mar 1h 5min

IL47: The AI Revolution That Will Redefine What It Means to Be Human ft. Craig Mundie

IL47: The AI Revolution That Will Redefine What It Means to Be Human ft. Craig Mundie

In today’s episode we talk to Craig Mundie, formerly the Chief Technical Officer at Microsoft and a leading advocate for responsible development of artificial intelligence. He joins Kevin Coldiron to ...

25 Mar 1h

SI392: The Hidden Cracks in Systematic Strategies No One Talks About ft. Nick Baltas

SI392: The Hidden Cracks in Systematic Strategies No One Talks About ft. Nick Baltas

Markets have shifted quickly in 2026, forcing systematic investors to reassess what is signal and what is noise. In this episode, Niels and Nick explore recent drawdowns, volatility in commodities, an...

21 Mar 1h 4min

ALO34: Building an Asset Owner Mindset in Modern Pension Investing ft. Dan Mikulskis

ALO34: Building an Asset Owner Mindset in Modern Pension Investing ft. Dan Mikulskis

In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Dan Mikulskis, CIO of People’s Partnership, about the evolution of large pension funds and what it means to think like an asset owner. Managing over £40 billion...

18 Mar 1h 8min

SI391: Why Trend Following Works... the Evidence ft. Richard Brennan

SI391: Why Trend Following Works... the Evidence ft. Richard Brennan

What if trends in financial markets are not anomalies, but the natural consequence of how markets function? In this episode, Niels and Richard explore the structural foundations of trend following. Dr...

14 Mar 1h 6min

ALO33: The Psychology Behind Better Asset Allocation ft. Aoifinn Devitt

ALO33: The Psychology Behind Better Asset Allocation ft. Aoifinn Devitt

In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Aoifinn Devitt about what it really means to build resilient portfolios in a world of shifting regimes and competing narratives. Drawing on experience across pe...

11 Mar 1h

SI390: When Narratives Change Faster Than Markets ft. Alan Dunne

SI390: When Narratives Change Faster Than Markets ft. Alan Dunne

Markets can shift direction faster than the narratives used to explain them. In this episode, Niels and Alan unpack the sharp reversal in bond markets, the geopolitical tensions shaping energy prices,...

7 Mar 1h 10min

UGO10: The Fourth Turning Is Here: How to Trade the Regime Shift ft. Neil Howe

UGO10: The Fourth Turning Is Here: How to Trade the Regime Shift ft. Neil Howe

Cem Karsan sits down with Neil Howe to examine what a true regime shift means for markets and society. Howe argues that we are deep into a Fourth Turning, a generational winter that historically bring...

4 Mar 1h 5min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
stopp-verden
dine-penger-pengeradet
e24-podden
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
pengepodden-2
pengesnakk
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
finansredaksjonen
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
utbytte
stormkast-med-valebrokk-stordalen
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
rss-politisk-preik
liberal-halvtime
rss-markedspuls-2
rss-sunn-okonomi
lederpodden
rss-pa-konto