Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Next Great Quarterback?

Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Next Great Quarterback?

This week we have the NFL draft, which is an annual exercise in failure. Every year, some NFL team makes a disastrous quarterback decision but also overlooks a potential star. Why is it so damn hard to predict QB play in football? Are scouts stupid, or is the future just unknowable, or is hiring fundamentally chaotic, or is there something specific about quarterbacking that makes it uniquely difficult to forecast? The economist David Berri joins to share his research on why scouts are terrible at evaluating quarterbacks. His ideas shed light on larger questions like "What is talent, exactly?" and "Does anybody know what they're doing when they're hiring somebody for a new role?" Host: Derek Thompson Guest: David Berri Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Episoder(405)

The Single Smartest Case Against AI Doom

The Single Smartest Case Against AI Doom

With new breakthroughs in math and biology alongside reports of AI agents escaping and hacking systems, suffice it to say AI has had an interesting few weeks. How worried should we be about it all? D...

25 Sep 1h 1min

The Truth About Mississippi's Education "Miracle"

The Truth About Mississippi's Education "Miracle"

Education outcomes have been getting worse across much of the world, with reading and math scores falling to historic lows. The U.S. has seen some of the steepest declines in decades. But, why does ...

18 Sep 56min

Why Experts Keep Getting the Economy So Wrong

Why Experts Keep Getting the Economy So Wrong

Expert economists keep making predictions about America’s financial future, and those predictions keep being … wrong. Over the past few years, we’ve heard warnings about a recession, inflation, tariff...

15 Sep 58min

What’s the Point of College?

What’s the Point of College?

Trust in American higher education is near a historic low. Tuition has soared, and the payoff for a college degree is now in question as graduates face a weird and challenging job market. Simultaneous...

11 Sep 56min

The New Book That Scares Big Tech

The New Book That Scares Big Tech

In the late 19th century, a railroad boom fueled by easy money, speculative investment, and new technology helped kick off one of the worst financial crises in American history. Sound kind of familiar...

8 Sep 59min

AI Slop Is Breaking the Internet. Can We Save It?

AI Slop Is Breaking the Internet. Can We Save It?

So many people seem to hate AI, and it’s not just because it might displace millions of jobs, destroy the world, or deepen distrust in big corporations and government. The reason might actually be sim...

1 Sep 56min

Why Everything Is Going to Keep Getting More Expensive

Why Everything Is Going to Keep Getting More Expensive

For much of the 21st century, the U.S. economy was built around cheap money. Today, though, interest rates are rising, and borrowing is getting much more expensive. At the same time, the federal gover...

25 Aug 41min

Higher Education’s Age of ‘Insufferable Hypocrisy’

Higher Education’s Age of ‘Insufferable Hypocrisy’

It would be an understatement to say that higher education is in crisis, as it faces attacks from both the current presidential administration as well as issues of its own making, like diversity polit...

18 Aug 1h 2min

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