What effect would a Brexit have on China-UK relations?

Two weeks after Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement shook global markets, he has now offered most countries a 90-day reprieve—while simultaneously escalating trade tensions with China by imposing harsher penalties. So far, China has responded by matching each tariff hike with its own response.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais, ECFR senior policy fellow and head of its geoeconomics initiative, and Janka Oertel, director of ECFR’s Asia programme, to delve into the complexities of the China-US trade war. Together, they explore the current tariff landscape, the strategies employed by both nations, and the implications for Europe and other external actors. They also discuss China’s aggressive response, potential trade chokepoints and the potential for regional diplomacy.Who will blink first, Xi Jinping or Trump? Is this a full decoupling of the American and Chinese economies? And what risks and opportunities does the US-China trade war carry for Europe?This podcast episode was recorded on April 17th 2025.Bookshelf:The Most Dangerous Place: A History of the United States in South Asia by Srinath RaghavanThe Year of the Hare by Arto PaasilinnaGeoTechnoGraphy: Mapping Power and Identity in the Digital Age by Samir Saran and Anirban Sarma Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

18 Apr 30min

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Mujtaba Rahman, managing director, Europe, at Eurasia Group, to explore the evolving dynamic between the EU and the UK. With a new British government under Keir Starmer and shifting global currents, what are the real opportunities—and constraints—for a meaningful reset in EU-UK relations?Mark and Mujtaba discuss the urgency of deeper cooperation on security and defence, the complexity of trade relations, and the need for joint solutions on migration and climate. With a crucial EU-UK summit taking place on May 19th, they argue for an ambitious strategy that includes dynamic alignment, a serious look at the customs union debate, and bolder thinking on how to rebuild trust and deliver tangible results on both sides of the Channel. Can the UK and EU find common ground, or will political caution get in the way? Will ambition triumph over pragmatism? And, in this new chapter, what does success really look like for EU-UK relations?Bookshelf:Age of Vice by Deepti KapoorHouse of Huawei: The Secret History of China's Most Powerful Company by Eva DouThis podcast was recorded on April 8th. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

11 Apr 42min

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand, ECFR distinguished policy fellow, and Janka Oertel, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, who have recently returned from Taipei. Together, they explore Taiwan’s delicate balancing act as China ramps up its military drills and as the second Trump administration’s priorities shift. The conversation dives into Taiwan’s efforts to secure US support through economic investments like TSMC’s Arizona project and its “porcupine strategy” to deter Chinese invasion, while drawing striking parallels with Ukraine’s resilience. They also examine Europe’s stake in the Indo-Pacific, from safeguarding supply chains to supporting democratic allies. Can Taiwan’s bristly defences hold off China? Or will it need more from its partners to weather this storm? This podcast was recorded on 1st April. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

4 Apr 28min

In this emergency room episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Agathe Demarais, ECFR senior policy fellow and geoeconomics team leader. They explore the dramatic implications of Donald Trump’s unexpected and aggressive tariff policies announcement on 2nd April—which he has dubbed “Independence Day.” Mark and Agathe discuss the economic shockwaves hitting the US—where tariffs threaten inflation and the acceleration of a looming recession—as well as their cascading effects on Europe and the global trade system. From the EU’s strategic retaliation options to the fracturing of globalisation, they ask: is this a fleeting disruption or the dawn of a chaotic new economic order? This podcast was recorded on 3 April. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

3 Apr 16min

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office, to dive into the seismic news shaking French politics: the conviction of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally (RN). A French court has found Le Pen guilty of misusing European Parliament funds, sentencing her to a five-year ban from public office and effectively sidelining her from France’s 2027 presidential race. Mark and Célia discuss the fallout in France—from the RN’s shock and unpreparedness for the court case outcome—to the broader ripples across Europe, where other populist leaders face similar legal challenges. Is this a triumph for judicial accountability? Or a risky move that could fuel populist backlash? This podcast was recorded on 1 April 2025. Slip of Le Pen: How the conviction of the French politician will fuel Europe’s far right by Célia Bélin, Camille Lons and Pawel Zerka. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

1 Apr 15min

This week, Mark Leonard hosts an expert panel to dive into Europe’s evolving relationships with Asia amid the uncertainties of the Trump administration. Joining from Berlin is Janka Oertel, head of ECFR’s Asia programme; from London, James Crabtree, a distinguished visiting fellow at ECFR with extensive Asia experience; and from New Delhi, Rudra Chowdhury, director of Carnegie India and a key collaborator on digital initiatives. Together, they explore how Donald Trump’s unpredictable policies are prompting Europe to rethink its strategic ties, spotlighting the European Commission’s high-profile visit to India led by Ursula von der Leyen. The panel examines Europe’s outreach to countries like India, Japan and South Korea; the complexities of its relationship with China; and the mixed reactions across European capitals—from Paris’ push for strategic autonomy to Rome’s wariness of Chinese investments. They also delve into India’s enthusiastic view of Trump and the potential for a reinvigorated EU-India partnership. Could this geopolitical moment redefine global alliances—or deepen existing divides? This podcast was recorded on 27th March. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

28 Mar 29min

This week, Mark Leonard joins forces with Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s director of research and US programme director, to unpick two momentous geopolitical disruptions. First, a stunning scandal emerged from a Signal group chat, where senior US officials—including the vice president, secretary of defence and CIA director—carelessly looped in the Atlantic’s editor-in-chief to discuss military strikes in Yemen. Among their plans, the chat laid bare the US administration’s disdain for Europe and schemes to extract economic advantages from allies—while exposing a shocking disregard for protocol. Mark and Jeremy then turn their focus to Riyadh, where whispers of a US-Russia pact are surfacing. This could mean reviving Russia’s agricultural markets, securing a Black Sea ceasefire and halting assaults on energy infrastructure. But alarm bells are ringing and Ukraine might be left in the cold. Worse yet, the Trump administration seems to be drifting away from supporting European defence while cosying up to Putin. Could the US truly be forsaking its historic role as Europe’s guardian? This podcast was recorded on 26th March. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

26 Mar 14min

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy fellow for ECFR’s Wider Europe programme and visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, to discuss the dramatic arrest of Istanbul’s popular mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu. The arrest sparked nationwide protests; together they explore whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s bold move signals a critical shift for Turkish democracy, potentially steering the country toward a less competitive system reminiscent of Russia or Iran. Their conversation examines Turkey’s deeply polarised society, the significant role of its Kurdish minority and Erdogan’s strategic manoeuvring in a rapidly evolving global landscape, especially following Donald Trump’s re-election. As Europe’s influence over Turkey weakens, Mark and Aslı consider the broader implications for the future of Turkish politics and its increasingly strained relationship with the West. This podcast was recorded on 24 March. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

24 Mar 18min