TIP701: Against The Gods w/ Kyle Grieve

In today's episode, Kyle Grieve discusses the book Against The Gods and how risk has evolved over history, why risk management was deeply routed in gambling, how the insurance industry was launched, revolutionary learnings on risk from brilliant historical figures, how regression was formulated and how it tricks investors, the two economists who upended utility theory, the powerful concept of prospect theory and how it showed how irrational humans are, and much more! IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 06:52 - Why a human “calculator” can’t win in the market, and the key skills that drive investing success. 08:54 - The two critical risk concepts Cardano introduced to beat the odds—still useful for investors today. 11:12 - How Pascal and Fermat cracked the ‘problem of points’ and laid the groundwork for market probability models. 15:09 - How Daniel Bernoulli connected intuition with measurement. 20:24 - How Bayes’ rule transformed probability theory. 25:55 - Why focusing on the downside matters most—especially when the market is euphoric. 26:33 - How regression to the mean distorts our view of performance—and tricks investors into bad decisions. 38:47 - Why diversification can sometimes increase risk. 43:49 - How prospect theory rewrote the rules of decision-making—explaining why investors act irrationally. 52:01 - Why investors cling to bad ideas—how biases and ego can sabotage returns. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Buy a copy of Against The Gods here. Follow Kyle on Twitter and LinkedIn. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: HardBlock Human Rights Foundation Vanta Plus500 Netsuite Shopify HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm