SI348: The Quiet Cost of Overfitting ft. Andrew Beer

SI348: The Quiet Cost of Overfitting ft. Andrew Beer

Andrew Beer returns to confront a moment of reckoning for trend following. As managed futures suffer one of their worst periods in decades, he and Niels explore a deeper question: has the strategy evolved in ways that undermine its edge? From the seduction of short-term models to the unintended consequences of complexity, this conversation traces how well-meaning enhancements may be compounding the very problems they aim to solve. Layer in political volatility, crowded positioning, and allocator fatigue, and the path forward looks less like innovation and more like rediscovery. This episode isn’t a defense of recent results... it’s a clear-eyed look at what happens when a strategy built on discipline gets pulled off course, and what it takes to steer it back.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:20 - Reflecting on Apple and China's Tech Revolution

17:28 - Shifts in the Market Landscape: The Influence of Trump and AI

20:03 - The Dynamics of Negotiation in Real Estate

30:15 - Market Dynamics and the Role of Central Banks

39:26 - The Changing Dynamics of Market Trends

48:00 - Evaluating Investment Strategies and Performance

53:19 - Navigating Market Challenges and Expectations

01:08:34 - The Future of Investment Strategies

01:11:10 - Navigating Market Changes

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Episoder(900)

SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification acr...

31 Jan 1h 4min

GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and F...

28 Jan 1h 3min

SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent res...

24 Jan 1h 1min

IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

Today we discuss one of the most popular and influential economic books of the last few decades - The Winner’s Curse. Originally published in 1994, a new version has just been released and we are join...

21 Jan 54min

SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas

SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas

Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and ...

17 Jan 59min

GM94: When Capitalism Reboots and Crashes Again ft. Mark Blyth

GM94: When Capitalism Reboots and Crashes Again ft. Mark Blyth

As the long era of neoliberal certainty frays, Mark Blyth argues that we are drifting back toward a 19th century world of rival blocs, imperial habits and dangerous illusions. In this conversation, he...

14 Jan 1h 7min

SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan

SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan

The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shi...

10 Jan 1h 8min

GM93: The Calm Before a Systemic Reckoning ft. William White

GM93: The Calm Before a Systemic Reckoning ft. William White

William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal...

7 Jan 1h 5min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

stopp-verden
dine-penger-pengeradet
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
e24-podden
lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
finansredaksjonen
pengesnakk
utbytte
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
pengepodden-2
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
rss-markedspuls-2
okonomiamatorene
lederpodden
stormkast-med-valebrokk-stordalen
rss-investering-gjort-enkelt
rss-finansforum-2
flypodden