Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs

Do tariffs help rebuild American manufacturing or hold it back?

In this episode, American Compass founder and chief economist Oren Cass sits down with commentator and author Noah Smith and a16z General Partner Erik Torenberg for a lively debate on the future of U.S. industry.

They discuss the case for tariff-driven re-industrialization versus free-market approaches, the role of allies in trade policy, and what the numbers really show about manufacturing jobs, investment, and output. Along the way, they challenge each other’s assumptions and explore what it would take to actually bring more production back to American soil.

Timecodes:

0:00 Introduction & Framing the Debate

1:27 Oren Cass: Economic Philosophy & American Compass

4:02 Manufacturing, Family, and Community

5:00 Free Trade, Comparative Advantage, and Policy

8:30 Tariffs: US vs. China and Historical Context

9:30 Do Tariffs Help US Manufacturing?

15:00 Data, Indicators, and Economic Predictions

22:00 Theory, History, and the Role of Economics

28:00 Trade Deficits, Scale, and Global Competition

38:00 Negotiation, Game Theory, and Policy Tools

46:00 Trade Deficits, Scale, and Global Competition

1:03:23 Negotiating with Allies and the Limits of Tariff Threats

Resources:

Find Oren on X: https://https://x.com/oren_cass

American Compass: https://americancompass.org/

Find Noah on X: https://x.com/noahpinion

Subscribe to Noah’s Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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