RBA Rate Hold (3.60%): Australia's Persistent Inflation and Capacity Pressures | Nov 2025 SMP

In this episode of Inside's Economist's Mind, we break down the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision in November 2025 to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.60 per cent.

Drawing on the latest Statement on Monetary Policy, we analyze the surprising strength of the September quarter inflation data, which was "significantly stronger than expected". Year-ended trimmed mean inflation (a measure of underlying inflation) increased to 3.0 per cent, reflecting larger-than-expected price increases in several areas.

The RBA now assesses there is slightly more capacity pressure in the Australian economy than previously thought. This persistence, coupled with the strong September outcome, has led to a revised outlook where underlying inflation is expected to remain above the 2–3 per cent target range until the second half of 2026. We examine the domestic drivers of this inflationary persistence, including higher prices for new dwellings and market services (like restaurant meals and takeaway food).

Finally, we discuss the mixed signals in the labour market, where conditions have eased slightly (the unemployment rate increased to a quarterly average of 4.3% in September) but indicators like unit labour costs and high capacity utilisation still point to residual tightness.