How the Iran Conflict Is Reshaping Russia and China's Energy Security

Since the US-Israeli bombing campaign began in Iran, energy markets around the world have been on edge as the conflict threatens immediate and long-term energy supplies. We've seen major disruptions throughout the Gulf region, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and massive price spikes and swings in oil and natural gas.

This is of course exposing serious vulnerabilities across global energy markets and it's putting a spotlight on what's happening in the deeply integrated markets of Russia and China.

Even before the conflict started, Russia's energy sector was struggling under the weight of infrastructure damage inflicted by Ukrainian forces. But now Russia has emerged as an unlikely safety valve for the market, benefiting from the massive supply shortages.

Meanwhile, China finds itself in a precarious balancing act; it is being forced to look at alternative markets for relief and is reportedly reviving discussions around major energy projects, such as the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline with Russia.

So how is Russia responding to the current crisis? And how is it impacting China, which is particularly exposed to disruptions in Gulf energy flows? How might this crisis change Russia's approach to the European energy market? And is the conflict accelerating a deeper fragmentation — moving toward a world of competing energy blocs rather than a single global energy market?

Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Erica Downs, Tatiana Mitrova and Sergey Vakulenko about how the crisis in the Middle East is impacting Russia and China and what each country stands to gain or lose.

Tatiana is a global fellow at CGEP. She has deep expertise in Russian and global energy markets, including production and pricing.

Erica is a senior research scholar at CGEP, where she focuses on Chinese energy markets and geopolitics.

Sergey is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Prior to this, he led strategy, innovations, and sustainability at the Russian oil producer Gazprom Neft.

Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.