Con Job Report – Ep. 87

* Once again, a week of worse than expected economic data punctuated by another better than expected non-farm payroll report from the government
* ADP private sector payroll report was slightly below estimates
* 5,000 manufacturing jobs lost - 3rd consecutive monthly decline
* Unemployment rate dropped
* Labor participation rate up to 62.9 - .2% above lowest point
* Large sector of labor force still comprised of older workers
* Teens, twenties and thirties are at all-time lows
* Older Americans want part-time jobs, so increase of part-time jobs contribute to increase in all jobs
* Given the strong government jobs number, the media is discounting all the weak data, including GDP, productivity, consumer spending and industrial production
* The jobs we're creating do not reflect economic strength
* The weekly unemployment numbers are hovering at 42-year lows
* Does anyone believe that this is the strongest economy in 42 years?
* The hiring numbers are suspect to begin with because of the government's assumptions
* The Trade Deficit dropped not because our exports surged, but because out imports plunged
* Our economy is too weak to support a greater number of imports
* A closer look at the data behind the government jobs number actually supports the rest of the weak economic data
* Personal Income and Spending on the month missed estimates
* May Manufacturing PMI dropped slightly
* April Factory Orders fell by more than expected
* Year over year, orders are down 6.4%
* 6th consecutive month that factory orders have been down year over year
* This has only happened in America during a recession
* Mortgage applications fell sharply on the week - 7.6% decline, led by a 12% decline in re-fi's
* May Services PMI fell to 56.2 - lowest level since January
* ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped to 55.7 - the lowest level of the year
* The revision to Q1 Productivity - 3.1% decline
* We also had a decline in 2014 Q4
* Corporate profits plunged 5.9% in Q1
* Unit Labor Costs surged by 6.7% - this does not represent wages
* All this data predicts future layoffs
* The Fed knows this, so they are reluctant to raise rates
* The Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort Index fell to 42.5 the 8th consecutive decline - the first time in its 30 - year history
* The Dow continued to decline on the jobs report
* NASDAQ still hanging in
* Margin debt is at a record high
* The dollar was stronger on the week
* The euro finished positive
* By next year European inflation will force the Bundesbank to retreat from QE
* Gold was down on the week, as euro strength signals QE less likely in Europe
* Expectations of rising interest rates have been suppressing gold, but when reality rears its ugly head, the sellers will be gone and the buyers will be out in full force
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