SI63: Are stock pickers overrated?

SI63: Are stock pickers overrated?

Is the concept of being a great stock picker overrated? Are Trend Following returns mean-reverting over time? Will Sharpe Ratios of Trend Following strategies permanently stay lower from now on? Is it becoming harder to be a successful discretionary macro trader? Should you use the same stop-loss for every position? We also give our thoughts on the process of adding a new market to your Trading Universe, ATR and how to apply it to your strategies, when a visit from the SEC can be taken as a compliment, why pain and suffering can sometimes be a necessary component of profitable Trend Following, Louis Bacon deciding to close down his funds, and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:57 – Macro recap from Niels

01:55 – Weekly review of performance

08:22 – Top tweets

46:30 – Questions 1/2: Derek; How do you adapt Trend Following models for a constrained universe of markets? How do you educate fundamental Traders about quant investing?

53:31 – Questions 3/4/5: Jonathan; Does having a 5000 sample size backtest apply to each market in each system? Do you use out-of-sample testing? Do you optimize using multiple time-periods?

01:00:37 – Questions 6/7: Indrius; How do you use ATR? Do you take less risk per market as you trade more positions?

01:04:22 – Question 8/9: Brian; How many other Trend Following managers should you invest in? How would you seek out other managers to invest in?

01:12:13 – Question 10: Maurici; Do you use the same stop-loss for every position?

01:19:15 – Question 11: Michael; Why incur personnel costs if all you need is a computer to run your systems?

01:23:37 – Benchmark performance update

01:24:44 – Final thoughts; Is it becoming harder to be a discretionary macro trader?

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Avsnitt(908)

SI389: The Market Is Pinned, But Risk Is Growing ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne

SI389: The Market Is Pinned, But Risk Is Growing ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne

In this episode, Alan Dunne and Cem Karsan explore a market that appears calm on the surface yet increasingly unstable underneath. As indices move sideways, they discuss how options flows and structur...

28 Feb 1h 2min

IL46: The Business Model Trap: Why Short Ideas Start in the Real World ft. Mark Roberts

IL46: The Business Model Trap: Why Short Ideas Start in the Real World ft. Mark Roberts

In today’s episode we talk to Mark Roberts, founder of Off Wall Street, a legendary provider of short selling research to hedge funds. Seven months before Enron became the biggest bankruptcy in US cor...

25 Feb 1h 2min

SI388: Peak Bubble? Why Markets Feel Different in 2026 ft. Mark Rzepczynski & Alan Dunne

SI388: Peak Bubble? Why Markets Feel Different in 2026 ft. Mark Rzepczynski & Alan Dunne

Today Alan and Mark step back from the noise to examine a market environment that feels subtly but meaningfully different. From AI euphoria giving way to harder questions, to gold’s steady rise and a ...

21 Feb 1h 3min

GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen

GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen

The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow gri...

18 Feb 53min

SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a...

14 Feb 1h 13min

GM96: The End of the Hedge: When Bonds Stop Protecting Portfolios

GM96: The End of the Hedge: When Bonds Stop Protecting Portfolios

A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capita...

11 Feb 1h 1min

SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver

SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver

Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case ...

7 Feb 1h 8min

UGO09: Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt

UGO09: Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt

Cem Karsan sits down with Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, to explore how narratives shape markets, politics, and decision making itself. Drawing on decades of experience across academia, hedge fu...

4 Feb 1h 1min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

badfluence
framgangspodden
varvet
rss-jossan-nina
rss-svart-marknad
rss-borsens-finest
uppgang-och-fall
avanzapodden
lastbilspodden
fill-or-kill
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
borsmorgon
svd-tech-brief
24fragor
rss-dagen-med-di
bathina-en-podcast
tabberaset
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
dynastin
rss-borslunch