Top Traders Unplugged8 Feb 2023

GM33: Drilling into the Oil Market ft. Rory Johnston

Today we are joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We talk about Rory’s in-depth research focused on the oil sector, as well as the current narratives impacting the price of oil right now. We discuss his deep dives into the workings of the oil industry, focused on adding a broader perspective to price assumptions and market fluctuations. From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to China’s Covid lockdown, Rory shares his reflections on diverse market responses to geopolitical events around the world. Is there going to be a big energy demand from China going forward? What is it going to take to stabilize oil prices? How does inflation factor in? Join us on this fascinating exploration of the role oil plays, and the variables that can change the trajectory of the energy market.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:31 - Introduction to Rory Johnston and Commodity Context

07:15 - Are people over-fixated on data?

09:04 - Is Geopolitical analysis useless?

16:43 - Making assumptions

19:38 - The challenges with data

28:36 - Indicators of volatility

32:26 - Quantifying the fundamental value

37:02 - Having an edge in oil

45:27 - Understanding the CRT Report

49:17 - Oil price - a play on the dollar?

52:27 - An indicator for the state of the world

57:06 - How are oil and natural gas related?

01:00:58 - Fertilizer's impact on natural gas

01:02:43 - The research perspective

01:04:32 - Key takeaways from Niels

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