Top Traders Unplugged5 Apr 2023

GM38: Debt, Stagnation and Policy Responses ft. Barry Eichengreen

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economic and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley as we discuss what we can learn from economic history in the current volatile global macro environment. We discuss the uses and misuses of history and look at what history tells us about the policy response to the current strains in the banking system. We delve into Professor Eichengreen’s work on the long term outlook for the US dollar, the exorbitant privilege that the dollar’s reserve status bestows on the US and whether the Euro and the Chinese Renminbi are becoming credible alternatives to the dollar. We also discuss if rising public sector and private sector debt levels sustainable and whether the global economy has fully emerged from the period of secular stagnation which characterised the last decade.

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Episode TimeStamps:

03:19 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen

08:17 - A potential misuse of history

11:26 - A lesson forgotten?

14:25 - Are things starting to break?

16:49 - A lesson learned

18:44 - Should we be concerned?

22:19 - Are crises inevitable?

24:32 - Is the dollar under threat?

30:10 - The need for safe assets

36:02 - The state of the Euro

39:39 - Making alliances

43:17 - A change in approach

45:18 - The "right" amount of debt

49:21 - A systemic problem

51:25 - Dealing with the debt burden

54:09 - Secular stagnation

55:48 - UK guilt yield levels

57:10 - Concerns for private sector debt

58:24 - Debt in the emerging world

01:00:45 - How and where to learn more?

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