Modest Proposal - AI Commoditization and Capital Dynamics - [Invest Like the Best, EP.380]

My guest today is Modest Proposal, joining me for our third conversation and the first in a few years. Modest is anonymous online, but one of the more thoughtful investors I know, overseeing a large pool of capital in public and private markets. He offers insight into many different corners of today’s landscape, covering AI’s frontier models versus open-source models, overcapacity issues in transportation in our post-COVID world, the potential economic impact of GLP-1 drugs, and more. Please enjoy my conversation with Modest Proposal. Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, where we're changing the game in investment research. Step away from outdated, inefficient methods and into the future with our platform, proudly hosting over 100,000 transcripts – with over 25,000 transcripts added just this year alone. Our platform grows eight times faster and adds twice as much monthly content as our competitors, putting us at the forefront of the industry. Plus, with 75% of private market transcripts available exclusively on Tegus, we offer insights you simply can't find elsewhere. See the difference a vast, quality-driven transcript library makes. Unlock your free trial at tegus.com/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:04:00) Comparison to Mid-2000s Commodity Markets (00:07:18) The Role of AI and Power Consumption (00:09:29) NVIDIA and the Future of AI Investment (00:13:10) Commercialization of AI and Market Dynamics (00:23:14) Public vs. Private Market Performance (00:28:03) Post-COVID Capital Cycles (00:30:32) Capital Expenditures and Post-COVID Market Distortions (00:31:47) Amazon's Capacity Expansion and Market Inflections (00:33:45) Challenges in Displacing Market Leaders (00:37:50) Behavioral Barriers in GLP-1 Adherence (00:39:58) Public vs. Private Market Allocations (00:45:08) International Equities and Japanese Market Potential (00:47:35) Market Structure and Trading Dynamics (00:53:22) AI Models and Future Market Implications