How we predict elections

How we predict elections

Scott Bland is POLITICO’s national politics editor and leading all of POLITICO’s 2022 midterm coverage. To do it, he has a team of about 15 reporters around the country following campaigns. Despite the cooling temperatures, this is when people like Bland start to sweat. His job is to ensure readers and listeners aren’t surprised on election night — that POLITICO has considered and reported on all possible outcomes, including the outliers — those black swan scenarios with seemingly low probabilities. Not just the most likely ones, according to conventional wisdom. The specter of 2016 still haunts newsrooms. Bland and Playbook co-author Ryan Lizza dissect how 2016 midterm misses can be applied lessons for reporters covering the 2022 elections. Bland also weighs in on pressing questions like; what are the chances of Democrats winning the House while the Republicans take the Senate? Could all of those allegedly flawed Trump-backed candidates sweep their races? And could Biden be the first President since 2002 to avoid a party defeat in the first-midterm election? Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Scott Bland is the national politics editor for POLITICO.Afra Abdullah is associate producer for POLITICO audio.Kara Tabor is producer for POLITICO audio.Brook Hayes is senior editor for POLITICO audio.Adam Allington is senior producer for POLITICO audio.Jenny Ament is executive producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Avsnitt(530)

NASA’s chief on how we beat China to the moon and beyond

NASA’s chief on how we beat China to the moon and beyond

Artemis II has launched around the moon. Now, NASA has its sights set on Mars. NASA administrator and billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman sat down with POLITICO's Dasha Burns at Kennedy Spac...

3 Apr 42min

How Democrats Can Win Back Trump Country (with Gov. Andy Beshear)

How Democrats Can Win Back Trump Country (with Gov. Andy Beshear)

Andy Beshear is the most popular Democratic governor in the country – in a state Donald Trump won by more than 30 points in 2024. He explains why he believes a President JD Vance could be “more damag...

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Inside Newsom’s plan to take on Trump

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Today, we're bringing you an episode from our new show, On the Road. California Gov. Gavin Newsom sat down with POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin for a wide-ranging conversation about the personal experience...

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Sen. Ruben Gallego wants to make Democrats fun again

Sen. Ruben Gallego wants to make Democrats fun again

When Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) won his Senate seat in 2024, he outperformed Kamala Harris in one of the closest battleground states in the country.  Now that he’s in Washington, Gallego’s backgrou...

20 Mars 35min

Sanders on BBQ, politics, and sneaking out of the governor’s mansion

Sanders on BBQ, politics, and sneaking out of the governor’s mansion

Today, we're bringing you an episode from POLITICO's latest show, On The Road with Jonathan Martin. In episode one, JMart sits down with Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders for a lively convers...

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Sen. Britt says Iran attack makes Americans safer

Sen. Britt says Iran attack makes Americans safer

Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) is a young rising star in the Republican Party. She sits down with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns to talk about how the war against Iran could affect Americans at home and the urgenc...

6 Mars 57min

Sen. Slotkin on the real fight within the Democratic party

Sen. Slotkin on the real fight within the Democratic party

Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) joins POLITICO's Dasha Burns on "The Conversation" and responds to President Trump's State of the Union address. Slotkin lays out her vision for the future of the Democra...

27 Feb 28min

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy on what it'll take to end the war

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy on what it'll take to end the war

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy joins POLITICO’s Dasha Burns to discuss the United States’ role in ending the war, where Europe fits into the equation, and his frank thoughts on Russians livin...

20 Feb 1h 5min

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