Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting
Odd Lots19 Aug 2024

Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting

Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, we speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign.
Read More at Bloomberg.com:
https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS
https://bloom.bg/3X54rNP

Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Avsnitt(1191)

Brad Jacobs on His Big Bet on Building Insulation

Brad Jacobs on His Big Bet on Building Insulation

He's done it again. On Sunday night, building supply company QXO announced that it would be acquiring TopBuild for $17 billion. TopBuild sells and installs insulation for both the residential and comm...

21 Apr 40min

Jack McClendon on Why It's So Hard to Create a New American Oil Boom

Jack McClendon on Why It's So Hard to Create a New American Oil Boom

The White House wants gasoline prices to be lower, and it wants to see American oil companies drill for more oil. But of course, these ideas are in tension. If prices are going lower, why drill more? ...

20 Apr 46min

Alex Imas on Why Economists Might Be Getting AI Wrong

Alex Imas on Why Economists Might Be Getting AI Wrong

Everyone knows that new technologies can be really disruptive to the labor market, but eventually new jobs emerge and things come back into balance. And there is a sense in which many view AI with the...

18 Apr 47min

Planet Money Turned Everyday Annoyances Into an Economics Book

Planet Money Turned Everyday Annoyances Into an Economics Book

There are a lot of things to be annoyed about in modern life. The high cost of food and housing and childcare. Dating apps that don't seem to work. The fear of AI replacing you at your job. These are ...

17 Apr 39min

Brad Setser on the War in Iran and the Future of the US Dollar

Brad Setser on the War in Iran and the Future of the US Dollar

It's possible that the war in Iran could reshape financial flows in significant ways. Perhaps the Gulf states will end up as less desirable places to do business. Perhaps Iran will have a tollbooth at...

16 Apr 51min

War in Iran Is Already Reshaping East Asia's Energy Future

War in Iran Is Already Reshaping East Asia's Energy Future

The war in Iran has caused the price of all kinds of commodities to surge, and that has a negative economic impact almost everywhere. But the squeeze is really being felt hard in East Asia, which is t...

15 Apr 37min

Presenting What Next TBD: Why Everyone is Freaking out About Private Credit

Presenting What Next TBD: Why Everyone is Freaking out About Private Credit

It's fueling the A.I. bubble, it's coming to your retirement portfolio—and it's flashing a lot of warning signs right now.In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, private credit or “shadow banking” g...

14 Apr 37min

Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf

Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf

Regardless of whether the war with Iran continues, it seems likely to have a lasting impact on the Gulf states. They may have to rebuild damaged pipelines and other infrastructure, or create new ones ...

13 Apr 45min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

framgangspodden
rss-jossan-nina
badfluence
varvet
svd-tech-brief
rss-borsens-finest
rss-svart-marknad
uppgang-och-fall
avanzapodden
bathina-en-podcast
fill-or-kill
lastbilspodden
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
rss-dagen-med-di
tabberaset
borsmorgon
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
rikatillsammans-om-privatekonomi-rikedom-i-livet
24fragor
montrosepodden