SI322: Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark Rzepczynski

SI322: Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark Rzepczynski

In this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for trend following strategies. Finally, they examine the narratives currently shaping markets and debate whether trend following can be considered a source of “unpredictable alpha.”

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

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Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:43 - Industry performance update

10:17 - New times for bonds

14:37 - The issue is always in the details

19:02 - What is driving markets at the moment?

22:36 - The perspective on treasuries is changing

26:34 - Trend followers are going crypto

29:22 - Does crypto make sense in trend following?

30:47 - Where are we in the risk cycle?

34:57 - How spikes in credit spreads have impacted leverage

38:16 - Does "perfect information" exist?

43:27 - A kind and a wicked...

Avsnitt(907)

IL46: The Business Model Trap: Why Short Ideas Start in the Real World ft. Mark Roberts

IL46: The Business Model Trap: Why Short Ideas Start in the Real World ft. Mark Roberts

In today’s episode we talk to Mark Roberts, founder of Off Wall Street, a legendary provider of short selling research to hedge funds. Seven months before Enron became the biggest bankruptcy in US cor...

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SI388: Peak Bubble? Why Markets Feel Different in 2026 ft. Mark Rzepczynski & Alan Dunne

SI388: Peak Bubble? Why Markets Feel Different in 2026 ft. Mark Rzepczynski & Alan Dunne

Today Alan and Mark step back from the noise to examine a market environment that feels subtly but meaningfully different. From AI euphoria giving way to harder questions, to gold’s steady rise and a ...

21 Feb 1h 3min

GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen

GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen

The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow gri...

18 Feb 53min

SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a...

14 Feb 1h 13min

GM96: The End of the Hedge: When Bonds Stop Protecting Portfolios

GM96: The End of the Hedge: When Bonds Stop Protecting Portfolios

A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capita...

11 Feb 1h 1min

SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver

SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver

Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case ...

7 Feb 1h 8min

UGO09: Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt

UGO09: Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt

Cem Karsan sits down with Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, to explore how narratives shape markets, politics, and decision making itself. Drawing on decades of experience across academia, hedge fu...

4 Feb 1h 1min

SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification acr...

31 Jan 1h 4min

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