The Original Prediction Market Was Betting on the Pope
Odd Lots14 Mars 2025

The Original Prediction Market Was Betting on the Pope

Prediction markets are everywhere nowadays. You can go online and bet on political outcomes, or the weather, or how long Taylor Swift will stay together with Travis Kelce. But prediction markets have a long history, and one of the earliest involved betting on who would be the next pope. In fact, Renaissance Romans gambled on everything from papal elections to whether a particular noblewoman would give birth to a boy or girl. So why was betting such a big thing in 1500s Italy? How did the papal prediction market actually work? And what can it tell us about prediction markets today? We speak to Ryan Isakow, the author of the No Dumb Ideas substack.

Read More: A Live Experiment in Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets Are a Thing Now

Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Avsnitt(1190)

Jack McClendon on Why It's So Hard to Create a New American Oil Boom

Jack McClendon on Why It's So Hard to Create a New American Oil Boom

The White House wants gasoline prices to be lower, and it wants to see American oil companies drill for more oil. But of course, these ideas are in tension. If prices are going lower, why drill more? ...

20 Apr 46min

Alex Imas on Why Economists Might Be Getting AI Wrong

Alex Imas on Why Economists Might Be Getting AI Wrong

Everyone knows that new technologies can be really disruptive to the labor market, but eventually new jobs emerge and things come back into balance. And there is a sense in which many view AI with the...

18 Apr 47min

Planet Money Turned Everyday Annoyances Into an Economics Book

Planet Money Turned Everyday Annoyances Into an Economics Book

There are a lot of things to be annoyed about in modern life. The high cost of food and housing and childcare. Dating apps that don't seem to work. The fear of AI replacing you at your job. These are ...

17 Apr 39min

Brad Setser on the War in Iran and the Future of the US Dollar

Brad Setser on the War in Iran and the Future of the US Dollar

It's possible that the war in Iran could reshape financial flows in significant ways. Perhaps the Gulf states will end up as less desirable places to do business. Perhaps Iran will have a tollbooth at...

16 Apr 51min

War in Iran Is Already Reshaping East Asia's Energy Future

War in Iran Is Already Reshaping East Asia's Energy Future

The war in Iran has caused the price of all kinds of commodities to surge, and that has a negative economic impact almost everywhere. But the squeeze is really being felt hard in East Asia, which is t...

15 Apr 37min

Presenting What Next TBD: Why Everyone is Freaking out About Private Credit

Presenting What Next TBD: Why Everyone is Freaking out About Private Credit

It's fueling the A.I. bubble, it's coming to your retirement portfolio—and it's flashing a lot of warning signs right now.In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, private credit or “shadow banking” g...

14 Apr 37min

Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf

Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf

Regardless of whether the war with Iran continues, it seems likely to have a lasting impact on the Gulf states. They may have to rebuild damaged pipelines and other infrastructure, or create new ones ...

13 Apr 45min

The Big Macro Force That's Been Driving Stocks Higher for Years

The Big Macro Force That's Been Driving Stocks Higher for Years

Stocks have gone up over the years because corporate earnings continue to grow. That part is straightforward. But in addition to rising stock prices, we've also seen rising stock market valuations. Fo...

11 Apr 36min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

framgangspodden
badfluence
varvet
rss-jossan-nina
svd-tech-brief
rss-borsens-finest
rss-svart-marknad
uppgang-och-fall
avanzapodden
bathina-en-podcast
rss-dagen-med-di
lastbilspodden
fill-or-kill
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
tabberaset
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
borsmorgon
24fragor
rikatillsammans-om-privatekonomi-rikedom-i-livet
montrosepodden