Tariffs, tensions, and trade: Trump’s gamble on China

As of May 6th, Germany has a new government, led by the CDU’s Friedrich Merz in coalition with the CSU and SPD. Despite a last-minute hitch, Merz is now safely installed in the Bundeskanzleramt in Berlin, from where he immediately jetted off to Paris and Warsaw for high-level political meetings. In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, ECFR editorial director and senior policy fellow, and Jana Puglierin, ECFR’s Berlin office head and senior policy fellow, to discuss the new German government and the legacy of the previous “traffic light” coalition. How will Merz’s government differ to its predecessor? What will its main challenges be? And what does Merz’s embarrassing first round defeat in the Bundestag suggest for the rest of his term?This podcast was recorded on May 8th, 2025.Bookshelf:Podcast | What’s next for Berlin?From fence-sitter to pace-setter: How Merz’s Germany can lead Europe by Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

9 Maj 32min

Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought chaos to US foreign and domestic policy. From imperial gestures to institutional erosion, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack what this means for American democracy—and for Europe.From territorial provocations and budget slashes to institutional chaos and a reordering of US foreign policy, Donald Trump’s early months in office have shaken American governance and global diplomacy alike.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s editorial director and head of the Washington office, to unpack what we’ve learned so far. What foreign policy vision is emerging from this administration? Why have Americans remained passive in the face of democratic backsliding? And what does this all mean for Europe’s role in the world?Bookshelf: Railroaded: The Transcontinentals and the Making of Modern America by Richard WhiteThis podcast was recorded on 28th of April 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

2 Maj 28min

Friedrich Merz is set to become Germany’s next chancellor after Social Democratic Party members approved a coalition agreement with the Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union—bringing Olaf Scholz’s tenure to an end. In this emergency episode of World in 30 Minutes, Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin office, to break down what happens next. How have the ministries been divided up? What does it reveal about the direction of the new government? And how will it shape Germany’s role in Europe and the world? This podcast was recorded on 30th of April 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

30 Apr 14min

On the 100th day of Donald Trump’s second term, the war in Ukraine—which he promised to end within 24 hours—rages on. As Trump’s impatience with the conflict grows, Ukraine and its European allies are scrambling to prevent an imposed peace deal that would see Kyiv recognise Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine , and abandon its hopes of joining NATO.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova, visiting fellow at ECFR and former foreign policy advisor to Slovak president Zuzana Čaputová, to discuss how diplomacy has shifted in recent days. How serious are Trump’s threats to walk away from the peace process? Could direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia soon follow? And what options remain for Europe if the United States steps back from supporting Ukraine? This podcast was recorded on 28th of April 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

28 Apr 15min

After years of stalled diplomacy, the US and Iran are back in high-level talks. Surprise meetings have taken place in Oman and Rome, with more expected soon. Could this be President Donald Trump’s long-awaited foreign policy win? Or will competing agendas, regional tensions and internal divisions doom the negotiations before they begin?This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme; Mohsen Milani, executive director of the Center for Strategic and Diplomatic Studies and professor of politics at the University of South Florida; and Nathalie Tocci, director of the Institute of International Affairs (IAI) in Rome, to explore what both the US and Iran really want out of the talks. What role can Europe play, especially after its failed efforts to save the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)? And how do powers like China and Russia fit into the US-Iran equation?This podcast episode was recorded on April 24th 2025.Bookshelf:No country for love by Yaroslav TrofimovCapernaum by Khaled Mouzanar Iran's Rise and Rivalry With the Us in the Middle East: Iran's Rise and Its Geostrategic Rivalry With the Us in the Middle East by Mohsen Milani Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

25 Apr 32min

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Mujtaba Rahman, managing director, Europe, at Eurasia Group, to explore the evolving dynamic between the EU and the UK. With a new British government under Keir Starmer and shifting global currents, what are the real opportunities—and constraints—for a meaningful reset in EU-UK relations?Mark and Mujtaba discuss the urgency of deeper cooperation on security and defence, the complexity of trade relations, and the need for joint solutions on migration and climate. With a crucial EU-UK summit taking place on May 19th, they argue for an ambitious strategy that includes dynamic alignment, a serious look at the customs union debate, and bolder thinking on how to rebuild trust and deliver tangible results on both sides of the Channel. Can the UK and EU find common ground, or will political caution get in the way? Will ambition triumph over pragmatism? And, in this new chapter, what does success really look like for EU-UK relations?Bookshelf:Age of Vice by Deepti KapoorHouse of Huawei: The Secret History of China's Most Powerful Company by Eva DouThis podcast was recorded on April 8th. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

11 Apr 42min

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand, ECFR distinguished policy fellow, and Janka Oertel, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, who have recently returned from Taipei. Together, they explore Taiwan’s delicate balancing act as China ramps up its military drills and as the second Trump administration’s priorities shift. The conversation dives into Taiwan’s efforts to secure US support through economic investments like TSMC’s Arizona project and its “porcupine strategy” to deter Chinese invasion, while drawing striking parallels with Ukraine’s resilience. They also examine Europe’s stake in the Indo-Pacific, from safeguarding supply chains to supporting democratic allies. Can Taiwan’s bristly defences hold off China? Or will it need more from its partners to weather this storm? This podcast was recorded on 1st April. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

4 Apr 28min