SI357: Liquidity, Leverage, and the Lie of Calm ft. Cem Karsan

SI357: Liquidity, Leverage, and the Lie of Calm ft. Cem Karsan

As summer sets in, Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to trace the contours of a market that feels calm but isn’t. What looks like low vol masks a crowded hedge fund ecosystem and a structural vol compression regime few understand. From a VIX spike driven by unexpected Call activity to the slow-motion political pressure on Powell, the signals are subtle but mounting. They cover China’s resource diplomacy, AI’s quiet dislocation of white-collar work, and the rising fragility from concentration across assets, brokers, and narratives. This is a conversation about setup, not outcome... and the traps hiding in plain sight.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:19 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:30 - Stay tuned for the latest UGO episode!

05:04 - China is taking the long view - and succeeding with it

07:04 - Tech companies are starting to buy into rare earth

08:30 - The risk of high stock trading firm concentration

11:01 - Industry performance update

13:33 - Q1, Rick: What other asset class volatilites besides gold are mispriced at the moment?

24:59 - Karsan's thoughts on the current macro environment

30:33 - What could trigger a deleveraging/degrossing event?

32:28 - The impact of tariffs - what do the numbers tell us?

41:21 - Is a firing on the horizon for Powell?

46:53 - Inflation is becoming hard to hedge

56:15 - The Emperor's New

Avsnitt(907)

IL46: The Business Model Trap: Why Short Ideas Start in the Real World ft. Mark Roberts

IL46: The Business Model Trap: Why Short Ideas Start in the Real World ft. Mark Roberts

In today’s episode we talk to Mark Roberts, founder of Off Wall Street, a legendary provider of short selling research to hedge funds. Seven months before Enron became the biggest bankruptcy in US cor...

25 Feb 1h 2min

SI388: Peak Bubble? Why Markets Feel Different in 2026 ft. Mark Rzepczynski & Alan Dunne

SI388: Peak Bubble? Why Markets Feel Different in 2026 ft. Mark Rzepczynski & Alan Dunne

Today Alan and Mark step back from the noise to examine a market environment that feels subtly but meaningfully different. From AI euphoria giving way to harder questions, to gold’s steady rise and a ...

21 Feb 1h 3min

GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen

GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen

The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow gri...

18 Feb 53min

SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a...

14 Feb 1h 13min

GM96: The End of the Hedge: When Bonds Stop Protecting Portfolios

GM96: The End of the Hedge: When Bonds Stop Protecting Portfolios

A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capita...

11 Feb 1h 1min

SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver

SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver

Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case ...

7 Feb 1h 8min

UGO09: Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt

UGO09: Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt

Cem Karsan sits down with Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, to explore how narratives shape markets, politics, and decision making itself. Drawing on decades of experience across academia, hedge fu...

4 Feb 1h 1min

SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification acr...

31 Jan 1h 4min

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