20VC: Greylock's Jerry Chen on The 2 Fundamentals To Assessing Startup Risk, Why Good Investors Have To Be Optimistic  & Why VCs Get In Trouble When They Move Outside Their "Strike Zone"

20VC: Greylock's Jerry Chen on The 2 Fundamentals To Assessing Startup Risk, Why Good Investors Have To Be Optimistic & Why VCs Get In Trouble When They Move Outside Their "Strike Zone"

Jerry Chen is a Partner @ Greylock Partners, one of the world's most successful VC funds with prior investments in the likes of Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, AirBnB, Dropbox, AppDynamics, Coinbase and many more incredible companies. As for Jerry, Jerry invests in entrepreneurs building new enterprise SaaS applications and in all aspects of AI and cloud infrastructure. Jerry currently sits on the Board of Docker, Cato Networks, Gladly, Rhumbix, Spoke, and Blend. Prior to joining Greylock, Jerry was Vice President of Cloud and Application Services at VMware where he was part of the executive team that scaled the company from 250 to over 15,000 employees and $5B in revenue. Check out Jerry's recent writing on Risk: The Game of Strategic Investment here.

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In Today's Episode You Will Learn:

1.) How Jerry made his way into the world of VC with Greylock from being on the exec team at VMWare, responsible for their scaling from 250 to over 15,000 people?

2.) What does Jerry believe are the different frameworks for how investors should measure risk? Why does Jerry believe to be a good investor, one has to be an optimist? What does Jerry find the most challenging element of risk assessment? What types of risk can Jerry tolerate and which can he not in a potential investment?

3.) How does Jerry break the theme of risk down into 2 very different categories? How does one define "uncertainty" in an investment? How does this compare to "probability"? How does both "uncertainty and probability" alter when comparing differing sectors? Does Jerry think that current pricing takes fair account of both "uncertainty and probability"?

4.) What does Jerry mean when he says, "you have to have product go-to-market fit"? Why does Jerry believe that platforms shifts are fundamentally distribution model shifts? Where does Jerry see an inherent opportunity within these net new nodes of distribution shift?

5.) How does Jerry evaluate the SaaS world today of bottoms up or top down? Why does Jerry believe that if you are budget additive, bottoms up with small ACVs is the current strategy? What does this mean for those that are budget replacements, both in sales model and ACV?

Items Mentioned In Today's Show:

Jerry's Fave Book: Skin In The Game

Jerry's Most Recent Investment: Blend

As always you can follow Harry, The Twenty Minute VC and Jerry on Twitter here!

Likewise, you can follow Harry on Instagram here for mojito madness and all things 20VC.

Cooley is a global law firm built around supporting start-ups and the venture capital firms that fund them. Now we have spoken before about their forming the first venture fund in Silicon Valley, and forming more VC funds than any other law firm in the world but Cooley also represents more than 6,000 high-growth startups across the globe – through the full company life cycle. They are the #1 law firm for VC-backed exits (M&A and IPO) ranked by PitchBook, and since 2014 has represented more companies in their IPOs than any other law firm. Simply head over to Cooley.com or you can check them out at Cooleygo.com.

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20VC: Tim Ferriss: Why I Walked Away From Angel Investing After Uber | How I Accidentally Lost $150 Million | Money Fixed My Problems—Then Made Me Miserable

20VC: Tim Ferriss: Why I Walked Away From Angel Investing After Uber | How I Accidentally Lost $150 Million | Money Fixed My Problems—Then Made Me Miserable

🎧 20VC x Tim Ferriss — Full Episode Timeline 00:00 – "How Do You Stay True to Yourself When You Have to Perform for the World?" 06:00 – "Why Tim Ferriss Refused to Go All-In on YouTube" 09:00 – "You Don't Need 10 Million Fans—You Need 1,000 True Believers." 12:00 – "The Internet Is Not a Relevance Machine—It's a Sensationalism Machine." 15:00 – "Money Fixes Money Problems—And Nothing Else." 22:30 – "When Did Tim Ferriss Feel Completely Lost?" 27:00 – "The Million-Dollar Mistake That Still Haunts Tim Ferriss." 36:00 – "Why Tim Ferriss Never Raised a Fund—Even Though He Could Have." 45:00 – "The Truth About Uber, Duolingo, and the Power of Relationship Investing." 54:00 – "Why Tim Ferriss Stopped Angel Investing at His Peak." 1:04:00 – "The Podcast That Changed Everything." 1:15:00 – "The Real Cost of Love: Is Efficiency Killing Connection?" 1:31:00 – "What Tim Ferriss Has Changed His Mind About Most." 1:36:00 – "Erections Matter."

31 Okt 1h 31min

20VC: a16z Raises $10BN in New Funds | Mercor Raises $350M at a $10BN Valuation | OpenAI Restructuring: Who Wins and Who Loses | Why IRR is a BS Metric and Three Ways to Win in VC Today

20VC: a16z Raises $10BN in New Funds | Mercor Raises $350M at a $10BN Valuation | OpenAI Restructuring: Who Wins and Who Loses | Why IRR is a BS Metric and Three Ways to Win in VC Today

AGENDA: 05:17 OpenAI's Restructuring: Winners and Losers 17:17 Andreessen Horowitz's Raise $10BN in New Funds 26:38 Mercor Raises $350M at a $10BN Valuation 43:08 Spray and Pray: Does it Work: Data Breakdown 47:04 The Role of Option Checks Venture Capital 48:36 The Three Ways to Win in VC Today 54:26 Why IRR is a BS Metric and What Matters More 01:08:47 Amazon's Struggles: How Do They Return to Greatness in AI

30 Okt 1h 24min

20VC: Sequoia's David Cahn on The Winners and Losers in AI | The $0-$100M Revenue Club: Is Triple, Triple, Double, Double Dead? | The Future of Defence: Who Wins and Who Loses | How to Analyse Margins and Growth Rates in a World of AI

20VC: Sequoia's David Cahn on The Winners and Losers in AI | The $0-$100M Revenue Club: Is Triple, Triple, Double, Double Dead? | The Future of Defence: Who Wins and Who Loses | How to Analyse Margins and Growth Rates in a World of AI

David Cahn is a Partner at Sequoia Capital and one of the world's leading AI investors. At Sequoia David has led investments in Clay, Juicebox, Sesame, Kela, Stark, etc.. Before Sequoia, David was a General Partner @ Coatue where he led investments in Notion and Hugging Face. AGENDA: 00:00 We Are in an AI Bubble 05:04 Why Building Physical Data Centres is a Moat 13:58 Winners and Losers in a World of AI 19:13 The Role of Big Tech and Monopolies 23:37 Breaking Down Circular Deals in AI: The Truth No One Sees? 38:19 Why Kingmaking is BS and VCs Do Not Make or Break Companies 41:30 The Importance of Margins in AI Investments 43:41 The Required Growth Rates in AI to Get Funded by Sequoia 45:30 The $0-$100M Revenue Club: Is Triple, Triple, Double, Double Dead? 51:53 Why the Most Important Hire for Startups Today is 23 Year Olds 01:01:19 The Future of Defence: Who Wins and Who Loses 01:10:15 Quickfire: Biggest Miss, Parenting Advice, Doug Leone Advice

27 Okt 1h 14min

20Growth: How to Build a Paid Marketing Machine: ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) 101 | The Rise of User Generared Content and How to Use It | TikTok Ads: Expectations vs. Reality | Hiring for Growth: When and Who with Sandy Diao

20Growth: How to Build a Paid Marketing Machine: ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) 101 | The Rise of User Generared Content and How to Use It | TikTok Ads: Expectations vs. Reality | Hiring for Growth: When and Who with Sandy Diao

Sandy Diao is one of the most exceptional growth leaders of the last decade. Sandy has scaled products to over 200M+ users and led growth teams at Descript, Meta and Pinterest. She is also a prolific writer all on things growth here. AGENDA: 03:59 Biggest Growth Lessons from Pinterest 08:01 What is a Good vs a Bad Growth Hypothesis 11:11 Common Mistakes in Growth Strategies 14:57 Channel Fit: When You Have It & What To Do 25:43 Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) 101: How to Build a Paid Marketing Machine 30:08 How to Do SEO and Long-Term Growth Investments 33:22 Doubling Down on Successful Channels 36:31 The Unchanging Foundations of SEO 37:52 Generative AI Engines vs. Traditional Search Engines 41:12 Paid Marketing Channels: What's Overrated? 43:42 The Rise of User-Generated Content (UGC) 46:34 TikTok Ads: Expectations vs. Reality 49:55 Brand Marketing: What is Real vs What is BS? 53:33 The Importance of Feature Launches 01:01:50 Hiring for Growth: When and Who? 01:08:55 Quick Fire Round: Onboarding, Notifications, and Growth Channels

24 Okt 1h 16min

20VC: Why VC Today is Worse Than 2021 | Why Vertical SaaS is a Bad Investment Today | Why We Are Deluding Ourselves on Growth Expectations | Revolut Raises $3BN at a $75BN Valuation | Benchmark Adds Their Newest General Partner

20VC: Why VC Today is Worse Than 2021 | Why Vertical SaaS is a Bad Investment Today | Why We Are Deluding Ourselves on Growth Expectations | Revolut Raises $3BN at a $75BN Valuation | Benchmark Adds Their Newest General Partner

AGENDA: 04:50 Benchmark's New Partner: Everett Randall 10:19 Revolut Raises $3BN at a $75BN Valuation: Another Loss for Public Markets? 28:39 Why Today is as Bad as the Hype of COVID in 2021 32:10 Why Vertical SaaS is a Bad VC Investment Today 36:14 Why Everyone Investing in Legal SaaS Will Lose Money 44:16 Why King Making is More Real Than Ever 55:23 Why Your Smallest Customers Need to Pay $10K Minimum 01:01:37 Why VC is a S*** Asset Class 01:09:29 Why Today is Harder Than It Has Ever Been in VC 01:25:18 Closing Thoughts and Reflections

23 Okt 1h 28min

20VC: Deel CEO Alex Bouaziz on Raising $300M+ at a $17BN Valuation | Deel vs Rippling: WTF is Going On | Management Lessons from Ben Horowitz and Nik Storonsky | Deel's M&A Playbook: Lessons from 13 Acquisitions: What Works & What Doesn't

20VC: Deel CEO Alex Bouaziz on Raising $300M+ at a $17BN Valuation | Deel vs Rippling: WTF is Going On | Management Lessons from Ben Horowitz and Nik Storonsky | Deel's M&A Playbook: Lessons from 13 Acquisitions: What Works & What Doesn't

Alex Bouaziz is the Co-Founder and CEO @ Deel, the $17BN global payroll juggernaut that just last week announced their latest $300M fundraise led by Ribbit, a16z and Coatue. Deel has been on the most insane journey, they do $1BN+ in ARR, they just had their first $100M revenue month and they have been profitable for over 3 years. AGENDA: 03:38 Announcing $300M Fundraise at a $17BN Valuation 06:24 Rippling vs Deel: WTF is Going On? Where is the Lawsuit? 14:01 Why 1-1s Are BS and Leaders Should Stop Doing Them 17:31 Do Rich Leaders Make Better Leaders 28:33 Biggest Lesson from Ben Horowitz? Why Most CMOs Are Bad? 34:48 Lessons from Nik @ Revolut and Why Companies Need to Make Their Own Software 42:23 Deel's Acquisition Playbook: Lessons from 13 Acquisitions 45:17 How to Price Acquisitions? How to Align Incentives with Founders? 55:45 Deel is Profitable and Growing Fast: When is the IPO? 01:01:35 Best Acquisition Ever + Worst Ever: What Did We Learn?

22 Okt 1h 15min

20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp

20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp

Zach Lloyd is the Founder and CEO of Warp, the next-generation developer terminal reinventing how engineers build and collaborate. Warp has raised over $70M from top-tier investors including Sequoia Capital, GV, Dylan Field, and Elad Gil. Before founding Warp, Zach was Principal Engineer at Google, where he led development of Google Docs, and later served as CTO at Time. He's one of the most respected engineering minds redefining the future of developer tools. AGENDA: 04:14 Biggest Product Lessons from Rewriting Google Sheets 07:10 Why I Would Short Google: Leadership and AI Strategy 09:55 Comparing AI Models: GPT, Claude, and Gemini: Who Wins and Loses 17:04 Do Margins Matter in AI? 24:57 Adding $1M in ARR Every Week: Is Triple, Triple, Double, Double Dead? 33:58 How to Build Defensibility in a World of AI? 43:05 OpenAI vs Anthropic: Who Wins and Why? 44:25 Biggest Fundraising Lessons Raising from Sequoia, Elad Gil and GV 50:56 Why Sequoia are the Best VC 53:51 What Every Founder Gets Wrong in Fundraising 01:01:30 Quick Fire Questions and Final Thoughts

17 Okt 1h 13min

20VC: $3.5BN - The Price Zuck Paid for Thinking Machines Co-Founder | Goldman Sachs Acquires Industry Ventures for $665M | Softbank Borrows $5BN Against ARM Holding to Invest More Into OpenAI

20VC: $3.5BN - The Price Zuck Paid for Thinking Machines Co-Founder | Goldman Sachs Acquires Industry Ventures for $665M | Softbank Borrows $5BN Against ARM Holding to Invest More Into OpenAI

AGENDA: 03:44 Rory Is So Old He Worked with Arthur Rock!!! 07:28 Goldman Sachs Acquires Industry Ventures for $665M 16:37 Thinking Machines Co-Founder Raises $2BN and Then Leaves for Meta 29:36 SoftBank Goes for $5BN Leverage Against ARM Stock To Buy More OpenAI 39:35 More Data Centres Than Offices: Are We In a Bubble 43:28 Where is the Alpha in Venture in 2025 51:48 What 90% of Managers Get Wrong About Portfolio Management

16 Okt 1h 19min

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