20VC: Howard Marks on How COVID-19 Impacts Our Economy, Liquidity and National Debt, Why The Theory of Falling Knives and Market Bottoms is Wrong & Why The Best Investors Are Fundamentally Unemotional

20VC: Howard Marks on How COVID-19 Impacts Our Economy, Liquidity and National Debt, Why The Theory of Falling Knives and Market Bottoms is Wrong & Why The Best Investors Are Fundamentally Unemotional

Howard Marks is the Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, a leading investment firm with more than $120 billion in assets. Prior to founding Oaktree, Howard spent 10 years at The TCW Group, where he was responsible for investments in distressed debt, high yield bonds, and convertible securities. Previously, Howard was with Citicorp for 16 years, where he served as Vice President and senior portfolio manager in charge of convertible and high yield securities. Howard has also written two books, most recently Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side, and it was Warren Buffet who said, "When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they're the first thing I open and read. I always learn something."

In Today's Episode You Will Learn:

1.) How Howard first made his way into the world of finance over 50 years ago? How did not getting an investment banking job change the course of Howard's life?

2.) What does Howard believe is the fundamental economic crisis occurring today? How does Howard expect liquidity availability to change over the next few years? What analogies of prior downturns and recessions can we look to learn from? How does this downturn differ and align to prior recessions and downturns? What policies would Howard like to see governments enact to prevent the worst-case scenario?

3.) In conditions of such uncertainty, how does Howard think about how to manage and move forward with such volatility? What are Howard's frameworks and mechanisms to analyse crises events like this? Taking the analysis one level further, how bad does Howard believe this could get? If short of The Great Depression, are there scenarios that could lead there? What are the leading signals?

4.) Being proactive, how does today's situation change the mentality and activity at Oaktree? Why does Howard not agree with the notion of "the falling knife"? How does Howard think about market bottoms? How does Howard determine the right insertion point? Why does Howard believe the best investors are unemotional? How can one manage the psychology of catching a falling knife that falls further?

5.) What advice would Howard give to the may millions of working professionals today that have never seen a recession in their professional career? What makes Howard the most nervous when he looks at and assess the landscape today? What does Howard believe is the biggest misconception people believe with regards to the current economic crisis?

Items Mentioned In Today's Show:

Howard's Fave Book: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

As always you can follow Harry, The Twenty Minute VC and Howard on Twitter here!

Likewise, you can follow Harry on Instagram here for mojito madness and all things 20VC.

Avsnitt(1379)

20Sales: Why You Need a CRO Pre-Product | Why Remote Sales Teams Do Not Work | How Snowflake Built a Sales Machine with Chad Peets

20Sales: Why You Need a CRO Pre-Product | Why Remote Sales Teams Do Not Work | How Snowflake Built a Sales Machine with Chad Peets

Chad Peets is one of the greatest sales leaders and recruiters of the last 25 years. From 2018 to 2023, Chad was a Managing Director at Sutter Hill Ventures. Chad has worked with the world's best CEOs and CROs to build world-class go-to-market organizations. Chad is currently a member of the Board of Directors for Lacework and Luminary Cloud and on the boards of Clumio and Sigma Computing. He previously served as a board member for Astronomer, Transposit, and others. He was an early-stage investor at Snowflake, Sigma, Observe, Lacework, and Clumio. In Today's Discussion with Chad Peet's We Discuss: 1. You Need a CRO Pre-Product: Why does Chad believe that SaaS companies need a CRO pre-product? Should the founder not be the right person to create the sales playbook? What should the founder look for in their first CRO hire? Does any great CRO really want to go back to an early startup and do it again? 2. What Everyone Gets Wrong in Building Sales Teams: Why are most sales reps not performing? How long does it take for sales teams to ramp? How does this change with PLG and enterprise? What are the benchmarks of good vs great for average sales reps? How do founders and VCs most often hurt their sales teams and performance? 3. How to Build a Hiring Machine: What are the single biggest mistakes people make when hiring sales reps and teams? Are sales people money motivated? How to create comp plans that incentivise and align? Why does Chad believe that any sales rep that does not want to be in the office, is not putting their career and development first? Why is it harder than ever to recruit great sales leaders today? 4. Lessons from Scaling Sales at Snowflake: What are the single biggest lessons of what worked from scaling Snowflake's sales team? What did not work? What would he do differently with the team again? What did Snowflake teach Chad about success and culture and how they interplay together?

7 Nov 1h 9min

20VC: Navan IPO: Winners, Losers and is a $4.5BN Exit Enough in VC Today | Harvey Raises $150M at $8BN Price | Why Google is a Buy and Amazon is a Sell | Meta Down 10%, Is Zuck Struggling?

20VC: Navan IPO: Winners, Losers and is a $4.5BN Exit Enough in VC Today | Harvey Raises $150M at $8BN Price | Why Google is a Buy and Amazon is a Sell | Meta Down 10%, Is Zuck Struggling?

AGENDA: 04:27 Navan's IPO: Winners, Losers and 20% Crater 12:55 Harvey Raises $150M at an $8BN Valuation 35:36 Was Sam Altman Wrong to Snap at Brad Gerstner 41:25 Why GOOG is a Buy and Amazon is a Short 47:43 Meta Down 10%, Buy or Sell?  51:12 If You Have Not Accelerated with AI, You Are Dead 01:05:20 Why Now is the Best Time for Series A and Worst for Seed

6 Nov 1h 16min

20VC: Cohere's Chief AI Officer on Why Scaling Laws Will Continue | Whether You Can Buy Success in AI with Talent Acquisitions | The Future of Synthetic Data & What It Means for Models | Why AI Coding is Akin to Image Generation in 2015 with Joelle Pineau

20VC: Cohere's Chief AI Officer on Why Scaling Laws Will Continue | Whether You Can Buy Success in AI with Talent Acquisitions | The Future of Synthetic Data & What It Means for Models | Why AI Coding is Akin to Image Generation in 2015 with Joelle Pineau

Joelle Pineau is the Chief AI Officer at Cohere, where she leads research on advancing large language models and practical AI systems. Before joining Cohere, she was VP of AI Research at Meta, where she founded and led Meta AI's Montreal lab. A professor at McGill University, Joelle is renowned for her pioneering work in reinforcement learning, robotics, and responsible AI development. AGENDA:  00:00 Introduction to AI Scaling Laws 03:00 How Meta Shaped How I Think About AI Research 04:36 Challenges in Reinforcement Learning 10:00 Is It Possible to be Capital Efficient in AI 15:52 AI in Enterprise: Efficiency and Adoption 22:15 Security Concerns with AI Agents 28:34 Can Zuck Win By Buying the Galacticos of AI 32:15 The Rising Cost of Data 35:28 Synthetic Data and Model Degradation 37:22 Why AI Coding is Akin to Image Generation in 2015 48:46 If Joelle Was a VC Where Would She Invest? 52:17 Quickfire: Lessons from Zuck, Biggest Mindset Shift

3 Nov 57min

20VC: Tim Ferriss: Why I Walked Away From Angel Investing After Uber | How I Accidentally Lost $150 Million | Money Fixed My Problems—Then Made Me Miserable

20VC: Tim Ferriss: Why I Walked Away From Angel Investing After Uber | How I Accidentally Lost $150 Million | Money Fixed My Problems—Then Made Me Miserable

🎧 20VC x Tim Ferriss — Full Episode Timeline 00:00 – "How Do You Stay True to Yourself When You Have to Perform for the World?" 06:00 – "Why Tim Ferriss Refused to Go All-In on YouTube" 09:00 – "You Don't Need 10 Million Fans—You Need 1,000 True Believers." 12:00 – "The Internet Is Not a Relevance Machine—It's a Sensationalism Machine." 15:00 – "Money Fixes Money Problems—And Nothing Else." 22:30 – "When Did Tim Ferriss Feel Completely Lost?" 27:00 – "The Million-Dollar Mistake That Still Haunts Tim Ferriss." 36:00 – "Why Tim Ferriss Never Raised a Fund—Even Though He Could Have." 45:00 – "The Truth About Uber, Duolingo, and the Power of Relationship Investing." 54:00 – "Why Tim Ferriss Stopped Angel Investing at His Peak." 1:04:00 – "The Podcast That Changed Everything." 1:15:00 – "The Real Cost of Love: Is Efficiency Killing Connection?" 1:31:00 – "What Tim Ferriss Has Changed His Mind About Most." 1:36:00 – "Erections Matter."

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20VC: a16z Raises $10BN in New Funds | Mercor Raises $350M at a $10BN Valuation | OpenAI Restructuring: Who Wins and Who Loses | Why IRR is a BS Metric and Three Ways to Win in VC Today

20VC: a16z Raises $10BN in New Funds | Mercor Raises $350M at a $10BN Valuation | OpenAI Restructuring: Who Wins and Who Loses | Why IRR is a BS Metric and Three Ways to Win in VC Today

AGENDA: 05:17 OpenAI's Restructuring: Winners and Losers 17:17 Andreessen Horowitz's Raise $10BN in New Funds 26:38 Mercor Raises $350M at a $10BN Valuation 43:08 Spray and Pray: Does it Work: Data Breakdown 47:04 The Role of Option Checks Venture Capital 48:36 The Three Ways to Win in VC Today 54:26 Why IRR is a BS Metric and What Matters More 01:08:47 Amazon's Struggles: How Do They Return to Greatness in AI

30 Okt 1h 24min

20VC: Sequoia's David Cahn on The Winners and Losers in AI | The $0-$100M Revenue Club: Is Triple, Triple, Double, Double Dead? | The Future of Defence: Who Wins and Who Loses | How to Analyse Margins and Growth Rates in a World of AI

20VC: Sequoia's David Cahn on The Winners and Losers in AI | The $0-$100M Revenue Club: Is Triple, Triple, Double, Double Dead? | The Future of Defence: Who Wins and Who Loses | How to Analyse Margins and Growth Rates in a World of AI

David Cahn is a Partner at Sequoia Capital and one of the world's leading AI investors. At Sequoia David has led investments in Clay, Juicebox, Sesame, Kela, Stark, etc.. Before Sequoia, David was a General Partner @ Coatue where he led investments in Notion and Hugging Face. AGENDA: 00:00 We Are in an AI Bubble 05:04 Why Building Physical Data Centres is a Moat 13:58 Winners and Losers in a World of AI 19:13 The Role of Big Tech and Monopolies 23:37 Breaking Down Circular Deals in AI: The Truth No One Sees? 38:19 Why Kingmaking is BS and VCs Do Not Make or Break Companies 41:30 The Importance of Margins in AI Investments 43:41 The Required Growth Rates in AI to Get Funded by Sequoia 45:30 The $0-$100M Revenue Club: Is Triple, Triple, Double, Double Dead? 51:53 Why the Most Important Hire for Startups Today is 23 Year Olds 01:01:19 The Future of Defence: Who Wins and Who Loses 01:10:15 Quickfire: Biggest Miss, Parenting Advice, Doug Leone Advice

27 Okt 1h 14min

20Growth: How to Build a Paid Marketing Machine: ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) 101 | The Rise of User Generated Content and How to Use It | TikTok Ads: Expectations vs. Reality | Hiring for Growth: When and Who with Sandy Diao

20Growth: How to Build a Paid Marketing Machine: ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) 101 | The Rise of User Generated Content and How to Use It | TikTok Ads: Expectations vs. Reality | Hiring for Growth: When and Who with Sandy Diao

Sandy Diao is one of the most exceptional growth leaders of the last decade. Sandy has scaled products to over 200M+ users and led growth teams at Descript, Meta and Pinterest. She is also a prolific writer all on things growth here.  AGENDA:  03:59 Biggest Growth Lessons from Pinterest 08:01 What is a Good vs a Bad Growth Hypothesis 11:11 Common Mistakes in Growth Strategies 14:57 Channel Fit: When You Have It & What To Do 25:43 Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) 101: How to Build a Paid Marketing Machine 30:08 How to Do SEO and Long-Term Growth Investments 33:22 Doubling Down on Successful Channels 36:31 The Unchanging Foundations of SEO 37:52 Generative AI Engines vs. Traditional Search Engines 41:12 Paid Marketing Channels: What's Overrated? 43:42 The Rise of User-Generated Content (UGC) 46:34 TikTok Ads: Expectations vs. Reality 49:55 Brand Marketing: What is Real vs What is BS? 53:33 The Importance of Feature Launches 01:01:50 Hiring for Growth: When and Who? 01:08:55 Quick Fire Round: Onboarding, Notifications, and Growth Channels

24 Okt 1h 16min

20VC: Why VC Today is Worse Than 2021 | Why Vertical SaaS is a Bad Investment Today | Why We Are Deluding Ourselves on Growth Expectations | Revolut Raises $3BN at a $75BN Valuation | Benchmark Adds Their Newest General Partner

20VC: Why VC Today is Worse Than 2021 | Why Vertical SaaS is a Bad Investment Today | Why We Are Deluding Ourselves on Growth Expectations | Revolut Raises $3BN at a $75BN Valuation | Benchmark Adds Their Newest General Partner

AGENDA: 04:50 Benchmark's New Partner: Everett Randall 10:19 Revolut Raises $3BN at a $75BN Valuation: Another Loss for Public Markets? 28:39 Why Today is as Bad as the Hype of COVID in 2021 32:10 Why Vertical SaaS is a Bad VC Investment Today 36:14 Why Everyone Investing in Legal SaaS Will Lose Money 44:16 Why King Making is More Real Than Ever 55:23 Why Your Smallest Customers Need to Pay $10K Minimum 01:01:37 Why VC is a S*** Asset Class 01:09:29 Why Today is Harder Than It Has Ever Been in VC 01:25:18 Closing Thoughts and Reflections

23 Okt 1h 28min

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