Why Pax Americana is Dying and What Happens if China Attacks Taiwan

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg continue their analysis of the Israel-Gaza war, against the backdrop of shifting geopolitical power, increasing conflicts, and the end of Pax Americana. They also discuss why Noah expects a China-Taiwan conflict, and the possibility of WWIII. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE  Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.  Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don’t just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It’s free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102  NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:50) Commentary on the Israel-Hamas war (03:41) The idea that wars end (07:34) The US has lost its unipolar moment (09:12) Should Israel double Gaza’s GDP to prevent violence? (15:05) Rich and aggressive?  (19:50) Sponsors: Daffy and NetSuite (22:02) Collapse of Pax Americana means countries feel safer declaring war (22:59) Hotspots for conflict: Azerbaijan and Armenia, Serbia and Kosovo (25:52) If China attacks Taiwan, what happens (29:32) How should international companies get ready? (31:12) Auditing supply chain (33:50) Recap of the tension between Taiwan and China (35:14) Strategic Ambiguity (38:11) Other key players in the Taiwan-China conflict (47:10) The Europeanization of the Ukraine war (50:17) We have nukes in Germany (51:03) Comparing Obama/Trump/Biden policies (53:37) What we’re actually doing vs the illusion of what we’re doing with Iran (54:26) How should the government get ready? This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.