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This week Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith are joined by Itay Vinik, Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Equi, to explore their different perspectives on the current state of the economy and the likelihood of a recession. Match a donation up to $100 for your favorite charity with GiveWell by going to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj -- We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co -- LINKS: - Noahpinion on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ -- X / TWITTER: @VinikItay (Itay) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @noahpinion (Noah) @Econ102_Podcast (Econ 102) @TurpentineMedia TIMESTAMPS (00:20) Intro (01:03) The current state of U.S. economy (03:43) Future economic trends (08:25) Economic indicators and predictions (15:24) SPONSOR: GIVEWELL (16:51) Cont. economic indicators and predictions (19:45) Potential economic risks (21:46) Inflation and fiscal policy (29:29) SPONSOR: NETSUITE (32:48) Inflation and monetary policy (35:29) Recapitalization of the banking system (36:34) Long-term deflationary trends (43:23) Housing’s role in wealth effect (48:21) Risky debt (55:22) Conclusions on the future of the economy