ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little

Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management’s Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation world to a supply constrained regime of sticky and spiky prices, where 2 percent becomes a floor rather than a target. He explains the “reverse bond conundrum,” rising term premia and the quiet return of fiscal dominance. The conversation explores AI as investment boom, not yet productivity cure, the maturing of emerging markets, the fate of the dollar and how to build truly multipolar portfolios.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening clip, long bonds misbehaving and the “reverse bond yield conundrum”

00:55 - Introduction and risk disclosure for Top Traders Unplugged listeners

01:50 - Joe’s path from economist to global chief strategist and house view author

05:16 - From post crisis disinflation to a supply constrained, sticky inflation regime

10:32 - Why 2 percent looks like a floor, tariffs, profits and delayed inflation effects

13:34 - 2026 baseline: muddle through growth, positive policy impulse and inflation nuance

16:42 - AI as capital expenditure boom, echoes of the 1990s and the missing productivity surge

20:40 - China and Asia: regionalisation, industrial policy and an exit from...