Looking for Trends: One River Asset Management’s Eric Peters

A Goldman Sachs Research study of the last 100 years suggests US recessions can be boiled down to five major causes - and several (like industrial and oil supply shocks) look structurally less threatening today. But among those that still bear close watching are the financial balances of households and corporations, which GS Research's Chief Credit Strategist Lotfi Karoui says aren't showing signs of a private sector living beyond its means. Outstanding mortgage debt has declined drastically and consumer credit growth has slowed to a four-cycle low, while on the corporate side, strong profitability and debt-servicing capacity are providing a buffer for rising net leverage. That said, there are several pockets of risk - including the growth in leveraged loans, direct lending, and delinquencies in the subprime auto loan market - but Karoui thinks it's unlikely we'll see them drag the broader economy into a downturn. This podcast was recorded on February 26, 2019. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

11 Maalis 201926min

In France, Goldman Sachs Investment Banking clients are focused on key three risk factors, according to Goldman Sachs' Pierre Hudry: geopolitical outlook, market stability and rising shareholder activism. Amid the uncertainty, however, French management teams remain focused on scaling businesses to compete on the global stage. "Achieving scale and being able to compete notably with the US players, which are massively consolidating and the Chinese players, who are benefitting from the whole market is really top of mind for these corporates," Hudry says. This podcast was recorded on February 1, 2019. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources and has not been independently verified by Goldman Sachs. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this recording and any liability as a result of this recording is expressly disclaimed. The recording should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Goldman Sachs is not giving investment advice by means of this recording, and this recording does not establish a client relationship with Goldman Sachs. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

25 Helmi 201921min

This episode is all about Europe's technology sector, from the pace of tech disruption and the growth of AI, to how companies are innovating in the face of political and regulatory constraints and more. Jo Hannaford of Goldman Sachs' Technology Division, points to Europe's geography as a key driver for development and innovation in technology in the region. "You feel like [in] Europe that [the countries'] physical distance doesn't really stop people being able to really...come together and communicate." This podcast was recorded on February 1, 2019. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast is not financial research nor a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

19 Helmi 201931min

The bumpy deceleration underway in China will be met with additional economic policy easing, albeit with some notable differences to previous stimulus, says Goldman Sachs Research's Andrew Tilton. He expects a slightly smaller and later stimulus relative to other slowdowns, leveraging not only Chinese policymakers' typical favored tools like infrastructure spending but also a tax cut. This podcast was recorded on February 1, 2019. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

11 Helmi 201920min

Last year, venture capital investment in China surpassed North American totals for the first time in history, bringing Chinese business models to a stage and scale that "the entire world needs to pay attention to" in the eyes of Goldman Sachs Research's Piyush Mubayi. Corporate venture capital plays a major role: the country's big tech companies are active investors domestically, and now they're also setting sights on new markets. In this episode, Mubayi joins Jake Siewert to discuss developments in China's corporate venture capital space, as well as trends he's seeing in the broader tech sector. This podcast was recorded on October 24, 2018. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

4 Helmi 201920min

Making a comeback alongside higher spot prices this year will be the rapid growth in US shale, says Jeff Currie, with new pipeline capacity unlocking supply from the Permian Basin and re-anchoring the market around a fast-cycle, lower-cost New Oil Order. This podcast was recorded on January 10, 2019. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

22 Tammi 201929min

"Startups right now are all using technology in different ways to drive growth, to drive expansion internationally...to continue to innovate their products..." says Kim Posnett of Goldman Sachs Investment Banking, who expects a strong IPO and M&A market for tech companies in 2019 given the pervasiveness of technological applications and access to capital. In this episode, Posnett discusses what to expect from the tech sector in the year ahead, from the biggest trends shaping internet and software businesses around the globe to how tech companies are thinking about IPOs to whether the pace of innovation among startups can continue and much more. This podcast was recorded on December 6, 2018. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources and has not been independently verified by Goldman Sachs. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this recording and any liability as a result of this recording is expressly disclaimed. The recording should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Goldman Sachs is not giving investment advice by means of this recording, and this recording does not establish a client relationship with Goldman Sachs. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

11 Tammi 201918min

"[As a founder] there is no stopping. The commitment is bottomless in a way that I've never had before...and so it requires a level of emotional resilience and balance that is not the easiest thing to do," says Josh Hoffman, co-founder and CEO of biotech startup Zymergen in the latest episode of the firm's podcast, Exchanges at Goldman Sachs. Hoffman joined Jen Rubio, co-founder and chief brand officer of luggage startup Away, and Dan Dees, co-head of Goldman Sachs' Investment Banking Division to discuss what it's really like to start and scale a company. This podcast was recorded on October 18, 2018. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources and has not been independently verified by Goldman Sachs. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this recording and any liability as a result of this recording is expressly disclaimed. The recording should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Goldman Sachs is not giving investment advice by means of this recording, and this recording does not establish a client relationship with Goldman Sachs. Copyright 2018 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

20 Joulu 201832min